Nikki Fried, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell say Primary results mean Florida is ready to swing blue

Florida Democrats say a series of School Board wins and a shift in sentiment away from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ agenda has them optimistic about November.

“Ron DeSantis has lost his culture war,” said Florida Democratic Party (FDP) Chair Nikki Fried. “Our freedom starts in our schools, and we’re proud to have supported candidates who will fight for our students’ rights to equality.”

More School Board candidates backed by the Democratic Party won than did candidates endorsed by DeSantis, despite the Republican Governor putting his support behind 23 candidates this cycle. Democrats endorsed only 11.

But Democrats also feel emboldened about the statewide contests for President and U.S. Senate in November. Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell said she feels confident that Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott can be defeated.

“Rick Scott has won his previous three elections right by a combined margin of 135,000,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “Well, last night, 237,000 Republicans voted against him in the Primary. … Don’t tell me we can’t defeat Rick Scott. I’m ready to do it.”

The Miami Democrat spoke during an FDP press call the day after securing the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. She suggested that Florida has never fallen in love with Scott; he just won some nail-biter elections. Scott won his seat by around 11,000 votes in 2018, and before that won two terms as Governor, but always by a 1-percentage point margin.

Now, Mucarsel-Powell believes the message sent by voters was that Florida has grown weary of extremist policies advanced by elected officials in a divided state.

“Floridians are tired of extremism, and we’re ready to bring back some sanity, integrity, decency and true public servants,” she said.

Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) leaders, though, had a different read. Evan Power, RPOF Chair, said the most important stat was turnout for the August election. “Democrats were outperformed by 14 points by Republicans,” he said.

He scoffed at Mucarsel-Powell’s math, noting that Scott won his Republican Primary over Keith Gross with more than 80% of the vote. More than 340,000 voters cast votes for another Democrat besides Mucarsel-Powell in that statewide Primary.

“Scott is going to win overwhelmingly and we will win Florida confidently,” Power said.

Fried, though, sees a rejection of the status quo on the way. She said donors at the Democratic National Convention, underway now in Chicago, have taken notice. And she said that as of this morning, more than 33,000 new volunteers have signed on with the FDP since Vice President Kamala Harris was elevated as the party’s presidential nominee.

“Having Debbie and Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, it’s a true female-empowered ticket,” Fried said. “They are engaged.”

Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava’s victory in the Primary showed strength in South Florida, on the heels of nationally noticed Democratic wins in the Jacksonville Mayor and House District 35 races earlier this year.

But with Republicans outraising and outregistering Democrats in Florida, can the structural challenges facing Democrats in the Sunshine State be overcome? Mucarsel-Powell sees those as temporary obstacles.

“Florida has always been a swing state. Yes, it goes back and forth,” she said. “That’s why 2022 was a terrible year for us. But it’s coming right back, and you can see the energy and the momentum on the ground.”