Staff ReportsLast Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
Ed. Note — Primaries, amirite?
Last night’s Primary was an all-hands-on-deck moment for Florida Politics, with many of us pulling an all-nighter to get your favorite newsletter up-to-the-minute on who won (or lost).
That said, we are giving Sunburn off tomorrow morning to start the General Election coverage in earnest … and get some well-earned rest.
In its place, we invite you to enjoy a fresh Diagnosis, taking the pulse of Florida’s health care news and policy.
Don’t worry ‘Burn will be firing up inboxes again on Friday.
Thanks again for your loyal support, and please stay safe.
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First Shot
Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead is growing according to new polling from the Economist/YouGov.
The weekly tracking poll, updated Wednesday, shows the Democratic nominee up three points over Republican former President Donald Trump, 46%-43%.
Still, the new measure marks a one-point increase week-over-week for Harris, who has surpassed Trump in most national polls and a handful of states seen as key to both candidates’ electoral success in November.
The rising gap is due to Trump’s top-line number dipping from 44% to 43% rather than Harris vacuuming up more on-the-fence voters.
On the plus side for the Republican nominee, his standing among men has improved over the past week, with 48% telling the pollster they prefer him while 46% said they prefer Harris. Last week, the men preferred Trump 48%-47%.
The preference was a separate query from voting intent. Men have traditionally been a reliable bloc for the campaign, which was again the case in the YouGov poll — 49% of male respondents whose minds are made up said they are voting for Trump compared to 42% who said they would cast a ballot for Harris.
Harris’ support among women is comparatively dominant. Most of those polled (51%) said they’re locked in for the VP, compared to just 38% who plan to vote for the former President.
The YouGov/Economist poll was conducted Aug. 17-20 and has a sample size of 1,565 adult U.S. citizens. The sample for voting intent questions was 1,371 U.S. registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
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SAVE THE DATE: A fundraiser supporting Rep. Alex Rizo’s re-election campaign in HD 122 will be held at the Hialeah Park & Casino’s Turf Club tomorrow starting at 6:30 p.m. The host committee for the cocktail-hour function includes Speaker-designate Daniel Perez as well as Reps. Sam Garrison and Jennifer Canady.
Evening Reads
—”Yes, party conventions matter” via Amina Brown and Monica Potts via FiveThirtyEight
—“How Kamala Harris shifted Democrats’ message from ‘democracy’ to ‘freedom’” via Colby Itkowitz and Clara Ence Morse of The Washington Post
—“Why Harris is dodging the press” via Andrew Prokop of Vox
—“Why I really loved Barack Obama’s convention speech” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“‘The vibes are ahead of the polls’: Dems are partying amid close 2024 race” via Tessa Stuart, Asawin Suebsaeng and Althea Legaspi of Rolling Stone
—”Democrats’ upbeat convention has Nancy Pelosi to thank” via Molly Ball of The Wall Street Journal
—”Florida election results show Ron DeSantis is out of juice” via Nate Monroe of The Florida Times-Union
—“DeSantis says his influence in Duval County School Board race paid off despite struggles elsewhere” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics
—“Voters issue stunning rebuke to DeSantis and developers in Manatee and Sarasota races” via Michael Barfield of the Florida Trident
—”Florida voters reject election denial candidates in 2024 Primary” via Tracey McManus and Justin Garcia of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Both candidates claim victory in razor-thin Orange County Commission race” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
Quote of the Day
“Adding a deceptive financial impact statement to deliberately confuse voters is a shameful attempt to hide the fact that Florida law currently bans abortion before many women know they are pregnant with no exceptions for rape, incest or a woman’s health.”
— Yes on 4 Campaign Director Lauren Brenzel, on the Florida Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the Financial Impact Estimating Conference summary for Amendment 4.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Trump endorsements still carry weight in the Sunshine State, but you wouldn’t think so based on U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee’s landslide win in the GOP Primary for Florida’s 15th Congressional District. A 72% performance is worth a round of Survivors for the first-term Congresswoman and her entire campaign team.
Let’s make Florida’s Supreme Court Justices a Truth Serum after Wednesday’s decision to uphold Amendment 4’s financial impact statement.
It turns out that being an election denier is a surefire way to get on Florida voters’ bad side. If you’re looking for the perfect consolation prize for candidates who learned that the hard way, we’d suggest a Hellish Rebuke.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
The Miami Marlins try to dig their way out of the National League cellar as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in South Florida (6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Florida).
Miami (46-80) enters today’s games a game behind the Colorado Rockies at the bottom of the NL standings. Colorado is the only team in the league to have been outscored by more runs than the Marlins.
The Marlins have lost five of their last six games and 10 of their previous 14. They have not won more than two consecutive games since June and could wind up with the worst record in franchise history.
That came in 1998, the year after winning the World Series; ownership dismantled the team and saw the then-Florida Marlins finish 54-108. Eight teams have lost at least 100 games in the 21st century and if things get worse, the Marlins could also join that list.
Injuries are also piling up. The team recently placed relief pitcher Anthony Bender on the 15-day injured list, although they did not list a specific injury for him. Bender had Tommy John surgery on his elbow last year.
Fortunately for sports fans in Miami, football season is nearly here.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
