William March: Dems yearn to flip GOP-leaning House seats

The Tampa Bay area will have two competitive U.S. House races on the November ballot, in both of which Democratic women challengers hope to unseat incumbent Republican women — but both races will be tough for the Dems.

They may be the only truly competitive congressional races in the Tampa Bay area.

In District 13, which covers most of Pinellas County, Whitney Fox is challenging Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of St. Petersburg. In District 15, which covers parts of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk counties, outgoing Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp is challenging Rep. Laurel Lee of Brandon.

To have a shot at overturning the two GOP-leaning districts, Democrats are banking on enthusiasm among their voters over the presidential race; the reproductive rights and marijuana ballot issues; and reaction against what they call Trump-dominated Republican extremism.

Republicans say those hopes are delusional.

Matthew Isbell, a Democratic political mapping expert known for impartial analysis, acknowledged that Democrats are underdogs in both districts but said they may have their best chance against Luna, even though her district is more Republican by registration.

“Both districts are worth watching,” he said. “But while District 15 is closer on paper, it might have a stronger incumbent (Lee). I wouldn’t be surprised if more national money ends up in the 13th rather than the 15th. I think we’ll see a real effort there.”

Lee’s District 15 is 37% Republican to 32% Democrat by registration. According to Isbell’s analysis, areas in the district now went for Trump by 3 points in 2020.

In the 2022 red wave, Lee won it by 17 points, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio by 16 and Gov. Ron DeSantis by 18.

The district has been trending Democratic as growth in Democratic-leaning northern Hillsborough areas of Wesley Chapel and the University of South Florida outpaces rural areas of east Pasco and western Polk.

That will benefit Democrats long-term, but for now, Isbell’s most hopeful estimate was that it’s “on the periphery of swinging in the right sort of election cycle,” one with a heavy Democratic turnout.

Kemp starts out far behind in fundraising, with $151,781 cash on hand as of July 31 to almost $1.3 million for Lee.

Kemp has won two straight countywide elections for her county commissioner’s seat; about 61% of the district’s voters are in Hillsborough.

In a news release, the Kemp campaign cited “overwhelming support” for the abortion rights and marijuana amendments on the ballot as “key opportunities for Kemp to grow her support” and said her base “will be energized and amplified” by the Kamala Harris’ campaign.

In an interview, Kemp said she has been the financial underdog in all her winning races and denied the district leans significantly Republican. She cited statistics that Trump’s 2020 win in what is now District 15 was the smallest margin of any of his 20 Florida congressional district wins.

Kemp said she filed before the Democrats’ switch to Harris and before the state Supreme Court approved the abortion referendum for the ballot and “felt a tremendous lift” after those events.

Lee, a former prosecutor, judge, and Florida Secretary of State has strong ties to the area as the wife of former state Senate President Tom Lee and a reputation as a comparative moderate — “not a flamethrower,” said Isbell.

Lee campaign spokesperson Sarah Bascom denied that Kemp has a shot at flipping the seat, citing Lee’s “leadership on the national stage.”

She said Lee served as a House impeachment manager for Republican moves against President Joe Biden and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, fought “inflationary policy, excessive wasteful spending,” and promoted energy independence.

Luna’s District 13 is 40% Republican to 30% Democratic by registration. In 2020, Trump won areas now in the district by 7 points; in 2022, DeSantis won it by 17, Marco Rubio by 14, and Luna by 8.

Noting Luna’s smaller winning margin, Isbell said the Democrats’ best hope is that she will “underperform” other Republicans again.

A competitive five-way primary depleted Fox’s campaign fund; as of July 31, she had $119,358 to Luna’s $917,230.

The Fox campaign hopes for financial help from national Democratic sources but hasn’t yet qualified for party aid. The race is on the “Districts in Play” list of the national Democratic Party’s congressional campaign arm, a list of Republicans considered vulnerable but doesn’t yet have the “Red to Blue” designation that includes fundraising support.

Fox cited her own community ties and said she intends to “go head-to-head” with Luna on reproductive rights.

She said Luna “has failed the district by stoking the divisions and dysfunction in Congress, channeling Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene … just chasing culture war headlines.”

A recent St. Pete Polls survey showed Fox leading among likely voters 48-44 percent, but Pinellas County GOP Adam Ross scoffed at the poll.

“I think she (Luna) has the safest seat in the country,” Ross said, noting that Luna won her seat in 2022 despite what he said was more than $20 million in attack ads in the Primary and General Elections.

Since then, he said, the county has only become more Republican and “the Democrats can’t spend what they did then.”

Fundraising notes

As they enter the General Election campaign, here’s the state of fundraising in some competitive Pinellas and Hillsborough county races, with figures as of late July:

— In the Pinellas state House race where Republicans hope to flip Democratic Rep. Lindsay Cross’ seat, Cross led with about $220,000 in her campaign plus $153,000 in an independent committee. Republican challenger Ed Montanari had about $89,000 cash in his campaign account, plus about $61,000 in an independent committee. The state Republican Party, however, has far more money to help its candidates than the Democrats.

— In one of two countywide Pinellas commissioner races where Republicans hope to flip Democratic seats, incumbent Democrat Charlie Justice had about $51,000 in his campaign. GOP challenger Vince Nowicki has about $29,000 in his campaign plus about $36,000 in two committees. Outside help from independent expenditures is likely on both sides.

— In the St. Petersburg City Council District 3 open seat, where both candidates spent heavily to emerge from a competitive 5-way primary, Pete Boland showed about $6,000 cash remaining and Mike Harting about $22,000. Boland acknowledged he “loaded up and fired his gun in the Primary,” but said he has the advantage of having run citywide before, for Mayor in 2021.