Associated Press
Going into November’s election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive edge with the public on the economy, turning an issue that was once a clear strength for Trump into the equivalent of a political jump ball.
About 4 in 10 registered voters say Republican Trump would do a better job handling the economy, while a similar number say that about the Democratic vice president, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 1 in 10 voters don’t trust either candidate, and a similar share has equal faith in them.
The finding is a warning sign for Trump, who has tried to link Harris to President Joe Biden’s economic track record. The new poll suggests Harris may be escaping some of the President’s baggage on the issue, undercutting what was previously one of Trump’s major advantages.
The economy has long been a weak issue for Biden: A separate AP-NORC poll conducted in late June, before Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump, found that about 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy. Earlier this year, Americans were much more likely to say that Trump’s presidency helped the country on cost of living and job creation, compared to Biden’s.
The aftermath of inflation’s spike in 2022 to a four-decade high has pervaded this year’s presidential contest. Shoppers are upset over their grocery bills. Higher interest rates are financially squeezing the buyers of homes and motor vehicles. All that has appeared to matter more to the public than the low 4.2% unemployment rate and stock market gains.
According to the AP-NORC poll, only about one-third of voters say the state of the national economy is somewhat or very good, although they’re more optimistic about their own situation, with about 6 in 10 voters saying their household’s finances are somewhat or very good. Both of those numbers have remained steady over the course of the year, despite falling inflation.
The candidates have clashing ideas about how best to straighten out the economy, giving voters a stark choice that might hint at how partisan identity increasingly informs views of the economy and policy. But neither campaign has fully explained how its plans would be implemented. Harris insists her plans would be fully funded and not add to the deficit, while Trump’s team assumes — in defiance of most economic models — that growth will be high enough to offset the cost.
Mark Carlough, 33, who works on medical records in Philadelphia, plans to vote for Harris and says he believes that the taxes on imports proposed by Trump would hurt most consumers.
“The tariffs would be horrible for the economy,” he said.
Richard Tunnell, 32, of Huntsville, Texas, plans to vote for Trump, just as he did in 2020. He’s not sure if the Republican has an advantage over Harris on the economy, but he noted \ Trump has been a great businessman who remains one of the “richest men on the planet” even after filing for bankruptcy multiple times.
”I believe this country needs someone to reach their hand in it and work it like a game of Monopoly and that person is Donald Trump,” said Tunnell, a military veteran on disability.
Chantelle Breaux, 38, a stay-at-home parent from Lafayette, Louisiana, feels neither candidate has much to offer on the economy. She doesn’t plan to vote — unless a candidate more to her liking enters the race.
“Kamala wants to put a Band-Aid where major surgery needs to be done on this economy,” said Breaux. “Trump wants to run the country as if it’s a business, but it isn’t a business that is going to support all of the people.”
Former President Trump suggests growth would come from tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy leading to more investment, while a universal tariff of as much as 20% would direct that investment to building U.S. factories.
Harris has campaigned on more benefits for the middle class to be funded by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, saying that would help to contain costs and deliver growth. Her team has warned that Trump’s tariffs would lead to higher prices and worsen underlying inflation challenges.
The economy is one of many issues shaping public sentiment as the campaigns seek to turn out their voters. More than half of voters said health care was a top concern, while roughly half said that about crime, immigration, abortion policy and gun policy. Only about one-third called climate change one of the most important issues for their vote, and about one-quarter said that about the war between Israel and Hamas.
Trump and Harris are evenly matched in the poll on who would better handle crime and the war in Gaza. But the issues soon splinter in ways that reflect the distinct priorities of Republicans and Democrats.
Trump has an advantage over Harris on whom voters trust to better handle immigration. This issue was a problem for Biden, as well: Illegal immigration and crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico have been a challenge during much of his administration. Republicans are more likely to care about immigration, the issue where Trump has a clear upper hand.
Harris fares better than Trump when it comes to issues that Democrats care more about, including gun policy, health care, abortion policy and climate change.
Rosamaria Nunez, a 68-year-old retiree in San Antonio, Texas, identified gun violence as the most important issue facing the country, saying it became personal when her grandson called her last year to be picked up because of a school lockdown.
Nunez said she plans to vote for Harris, saying: “First of all, she’s a gun owner, so she can relate to the safety issue. She seems like she’s more in tune with a real person than Trump is.”
Overall, voters see high stakes for the presidential election’s impact on the country’s future, the economy, and the future of democracy in the U.S., but they’re less likely to think the election will have an impact on them personally. About 8 in 10 voters say the election will have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of impact on the country’s future. About three-quarters say the election will have a similar impact on the nation’s economy and the future of democracy in the U.S.
By contrast, half of voters say the election will have at least “quite a bit” of impact on them personally.
The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-16, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
20 comments
Bobblehead Kammy
September 20, 2024 at 7:15 am
After seeing highlights of Kammy on the Oprah Winfrey show, I am now convinced more than ever that the debate questions were leaked to her team in advance. Man Kammy can serve up some word salad. 🤣
Tom
September 20, 2024 at 8:08 am
Well if you want to waste 8 minutes of your life, read the trump response to the question: What are you going to do to bring down grocery prices? Pot, meet kettle.
Bobblehead Kammy
September 20, 2024 at 8:55 am
You guys completely giving her a pass on the economy and let’s through the millions of illegals this administration allowed in. TDS is very strong here.
JD
September 20, 2024 at 9:01 am
If you are going to conflate “Kammy” to Biden’s policies, let’s stick to the facts.
Under Biden, the U.S. added 13.4 million jobs, unemployment is at 3.8%, and inflation has cooled to 3.7%. Meanwhile, Trump’s last year saw over 9 million jobs lost due to COVID-19. On immigration, yes, border crossings are up, but Biden kept parts of Trump’s policies, like Title 42, in place until recently.
So, how is immigration even related to the economic discussion here? Both presidents faced challenges, and Biden (and “Kammy”) hasn’t gotten a “free pass” on anything.
JD
September 20, 2024 at 9:03 am
And if we’re talking about “free passes,” how does Trump get one for his 34 felony indictments and numerous adjudicated moral failings? If we’re going to hold people accountable, let’s apply that standard consistently.
Tom
September 20, 2024 at 1:02 pm
Inflation down, cheap gas, everyone’s 401K doing well – what’s not to like? Give or take some corporate greed, things are good relative to the rest of the world after covid. If trump starts his tariff nonsense, reauthorizes his tax cuts and generally executes on his ‘concept of a plan’ project 25 nonsense, he’ll totally screw the pooch then we’ll all know how bad things can really get unless … elmo saves us.
rick whitaker
September 20, 2024 at 10:14 pm
MAGA MARK, harris’s performances on oprah, debates, or press conferences, are polished, not word salad, because she is smart and focused, not like her maga opponents. the dems don’t have to cheat to win. accuse someone else of using leaked or stolen info, not harris. we know who the cheaters are dude. how’s that woman hating paying off for you?
Bobblehead Kammy
September 21, 2024 at 5:09 pm
She was good in the debate. I will give you that. She was a train wreck on Oprah and her interview in Pennsylvania last week.
rick whitaker
September 21, 2024 at 7:48 pm
MAGA MARK, i didn’t watch the oprah interview. i don’t trust oprah at all. her npa bs turned me off. she loves power and money over country, i don’t go for that. regardless, the only party fit to rule is the dem party no matter who the candidates are. dems wouldn’t put up with a mark robinson type candidate. harris could mess up an interview, or make a weird laugh, that matters little. she will have a sane and erudite staff so i know she will do great. i’m excited to see it happen. maga is evil, so it needs to dissolve.
Michael K
September 20, 2024 at 7:40 am
It’s simple. One candidate thinks tariffs are the answer. They are paid by American consumers, not foreign nations. And Trump’s promise of mass deportations will take a wrecking ball to the economy and create a massive and expensive humanitarian crises.
America is still the strongest economy in the world. Inflation is 2.5% and a recession was avoided. A focus on strengthening the middle class over more tax cuts for billionaires makes sense to me.
Cindy
September 20, 2024 at 9:17 am
Project 2025 is the concept of most people .
The economy is supply and demand. With a clause no one has to supply you in reality.
Inflation and food Budget. Some have a back yard soon we might have to create food ourselves
Will not go back. I am not sure what that means. We always go forward in age and pass away
JD
September 20, 2024 at 9:24 am
The economy is not some free-for-all where suppliers can just “opt-out,” and while inflation has been a challenge, it is being addressed. Project 2025 is a niche partisan agenda, not some widely accepted concept. As for aging, that’s a reality no policy can change.
Josh Green
September 20, 2024 at 9:43 am
It’s obviously going to be Kamala Harris.
In 2017 Trump passed a huge tax increase on the middle class that is set to increase each year. I’m not a billionaire, so Kamala’s policies are in my best interest.
Bobblehead Kammy
September 20, 2024 at 11:40 am
So Kammy might have worked a summer at McDonald’s. Other than that she is a free loading government worker like many of these politicians. Would you trust Kammy to manage your money in retirement?
JD
September 20, 2024 at 11:43 am
I feel one needs to also ask would you trust Trump with your money in retirement? What’s his business failure record for investors? We all know about his bankruptcies.
Bobblehead Kammy
September 20, 2024 at 12:08 pm
He certainly has had his bankruptcies. Then again there are big successes as well. 😄
Cindy
September 20, 2024 at 1:28 pm
Bang for your buck economy’s but the trade is leaving America. But jd says we can’t do that.
The Sage "E"
September 20, 2024 at 9:31 pm
America, this is nothing but more “DOOK 4 BRAINS” “LEFTIST PROPAGANDA” from the A. P.
Be sure to “LEAN ON” the Sage Wisdom of ME, The Sage “E”, for your Daily Dose of “TRUTH, JUSTICE, & THE AMERICAN WAY.
The Sage “E”
A Day without MAGA
September 21, 2024 at 7:02 am
Source if delusional being Google Peale Trump
A Day without MAGA
September 21, 2024 at 7:04 am
Source of Trump Delusional being Google Peale Trump
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