Poll: Kamala Harris leads with Hispanic voters in Florida, but 3 in 10 are still up for grabs

Kamala Harris. Image via AP.

Florida’s Hispanic voters are more inclined to vote for Kamala Harris for President than Donald Trump, but roughly 3 in 10 are still on the fence, new polling shows.

Harris leads among decided Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State, with 38% definitely planning to cast ballots for her compared to 34% who are definitely voting for Trump.

The rest haven’t decided yet, though an identical share of them (12%) are leaning toward one candidate or the other.

TelavisaUnivision and Media Predict surveyed 1,155 likely Florida voters online Sept. 12-16, including 540 Hispanic voters and 615 non-Hispanic voters. Pollsters weighted the results to reflect local demographics — age, gender, education — and political affiliation.

The margin of error for Hispanics was 4.3 percentage points. For non-Hispanics, it was 4 percentage points.

The new poll’s finding stands in sharp contrast with a July survey TelavistaUnivision conducted before Joe Biden dropped out of the race, which found Florida Hispanic voters preferred Trump to Biden by a 4-point margin, 47%-43%.

At the time, more than a third said they weren’t sure whom they would pick for President.

Harris’ support among Hispanics is 2 points higher than it is among non-Hispanics. Trump, meanwhile, has an 8-point edge among non-Hispanics.

Fifty-four percent of Hispanic men said they will probably or definitely vote for Trump. The same share of Hispanic women said the same about Harris.

Notably, Trump leads with Hispanic voters 18%-34 (55%), while Harris carries a similar share (54%) among Hispanic voters 35 and older.

Among Hispanic voters with children living at home, 52% prefer Trump compared to 43% who like Harris better.

After California and Texas, Florida has the most Hispanic voters in the nation, with 2.75 million representing 22% of the state’s electorate, according to L2 Data Mapping’s list of active registered voters as of mid-May. Among them, Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans, but most (more than 1 million) either have no party affiliation or are members of a third party.

Trump has an enthusiasm edge with Florida’s Hispanic voters, pollsters found. Nearly three-fourths of survey respondents said they’re voting for him because they are passionate about his candidacy, with the remainder saying they are either voting for Trump because they strongly oppose Harris or that their votes are equally pro-Trump and anti-Harris.

On the other hand, two-thirds of Harris supporters cited their excitement for her as their main driver.

Regarding the Sept. 10 debate, 50% of Hispanic voters said the candidates’ performances made them more likely to vote for Harris compared to 31% for Trump. Among non-Hispanics, the split was 40% who thought the debate made Harris preferable as President, while 34% believed Trump made a better case for himself as the next Commander-in-Chief.

TelavisaUnivision’s new poll comes on the heels of another by Morning Consult that found Trump leading Harris by 3 points, well within the margin of error.

The General Election is on Nov. 5.