Gov. DeSantis having Idalia déjà vu, predicts Helene could follow similar track

As Hurricane Helene heads for a Big Bend landfall late Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis is recalling very recent storm history in contextualizing the expectations for the storm, which he said could be “like déjà vu all over again.”

DeSantis said the “potentially Category 4 storm” is “nearing more of an Idalia track” with “models are nudging the center of the storm a little bit east, and that’s significant when you’re talking about Tallahassee.”

The Governor added that the “slight trend” in storm modeling could be “impactful” if it goes “30-40 miles to the east” of the previous expectations, which saw the eye of the storm potentially going over the tree-lined state capital that has never been tested by a storm like this.

Idalia hit the Big Bend on Aug. 30, 2023, making landfall at Keaton Beach. And it created adverse impacts even while hitting one of the lower-population areas on Florida’s coast, including nearly $450 million in agriculture damage, $64 million in timber losses, and more than $30 million of adverse impact to aquaculture.

“These things can rapidly intensify,” DeSantis said. “We’re just going to assume this is a major hurricane and do our thing ahead of landfall”

The Governor vowed to help “fiscally constrained counties” with storm recovery during Thursday’s remarks, and said Federal Emergency Management Agency reimbursement would be forthcoming as well for “serious debris removal” and other storm functions that may exceed their modest budgets.

“We put aside half a billion a year for disaster response,” DeSantis said. “We’re in good shape to help them.”

Outside of the cone, impacts will be felt, including “significant storm surge in coastal areas” expected to be “churning a lot of water, surge up and down the west coast of Florida.”

Division of Emergency Management head Kevin Guthrie cautioned people in the path of the storm not to go outside when the eyewall is passing overhead.

“If it goes from horrible and terrible to absolutely nothing, there is a 99% chance you’re in the eyewall. Stay in place and do not move,” he warned.

As of the most recent update, the hurricane is 365 miles south of Apalachicola, moving north-northeast at 12 mph. Forward motion is expected to increase ahead of the landfall Thursday evening. Tropical storm force winds are 345 miles from the center, ensuring far-reaching impacts. To that end, a state of emergency has been declared for all but six counties in the state.