Ryan Nicol
A new survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R) shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 5-point lead nationally over former Republican President Donald Trump.
SP&R pollsters found Harris with 49% support among 1,001 likely voters. Trump is at just 44% in the poll.
Harris is being buoyed by a big lead among independents, as she tops Trump 53% to 37%. Both candidates dominate among their respective parties, with Harris up with 94% support to Trump’s 0% among Democrats, and Trump leads among Republicans 93% to 2%.
Split along political ideology rather than by political party, Trump leads Harris 89% to 5% among self-described conservatives, while liberal/progressive voters prefer Harris over Trump 94% to 1%. Among self-described moderates, Harris also leads big, 67% to 26%.
Reinforcing the massive gender split seen in previous polls, Trump leads among men 53% to 39%, while Harris leads among women 58% to 36%.
Harris has a big advantage with Black voters (83% to 6%) and Hispanic voters (71% to 25%), while Trump is winning among White voters (51% to 42%).
Harris’ biggest lead among various age groups is in the 18-29 demographic, where she leads 61% to 33%. Trump does best among voters 85 and older, where he leads 48% to 38%.
Harris is also up with voters aged 30-44 (51% to 45%), 45-54 (47% to 43%) and 65-74 (48% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has an edge among voters aged 55-65 (49% to 47%) and 75-84 (49% to 47%).
SP&R conducted the survey Sept. 23 to Oct. 1. The poll has a 3.2-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris’ 5-point lead overall is larger than most major polling averages show. Nate Silver’s independent forecast has her up 3.4 points, while FiveThirtyEight gives her a 2.7-point lead and RealClearPolitics shows her ahead by 2.2 points.
It’s worth noting the election is decided state-by-state, not by the national popular vote, so it remains to be seen how Harris’ lead nationally will translate to the Electoral College. Forecasters do still seem to give Harris the edge there, however, with FiveThirtyEight giving her a 58% chance to win and bettors on PredictIt also pegging her as the favorite.
7 comments
Billy Rotberg
October 3, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Hillary by a landslide! It’s actual votes that matter, not polls.
PeterH
October 3, 2024 at 4:21 pm
Independent voters are America’s second largest voting bloc in American politics. Republicans are third in line. Independents decide elections.
Billy Rotberg
October 3, 2024 at 4:54 pm
Prove your claim.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 3, 2024 at 4:56 pm
He also claims he is an independent.
A day without Peter Puffer
October 3, 2024 at 5:00 pm
Libturds lie about everything.
A day without Peter Puffer
October 3, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Pew research proves you are a lying sack of shit.
Michael K
October 3, 2024 at 5:49 pm
The Harris coalition is broad, expanding and welcoming – and younger.
Trump’s ceiling has never hit more than 46%, and he’s done nothing to expand his base. And he’s never won the popular vote.