Ryan Nicol
A new survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R) shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 5-point lead nationally over former Republican President Donald Trump.
SP&R pollsters found Harris with 49% support among 1,001 likely voters. Trump is at just 44% in the poll.
Harris is being buoyed by a big lead among independents, as she tops Trump 53% to 37%. Both candidates dominate among their respective parties, with Harris up with 94% support to Trump’s 0% among Democrats, and Trump leads among Republicans 93% to 2%.
Split along political ideology rather than by political party, Trump leads Harris 89% to 5% among self-described conservatives, while liberal/progressive voters prefer Harris over Trump 94% to 1%. Among self-described moderates, Harris also leads big, 67% to 26%.
Reinforcing the massive gender split seen in previous polls, Trump leads among men 53% to 39%, while Harris leads among women 58% to 36%.
Harris has a big advantage with Black voters (83% to 6%) and Hispanic voters (71% to 25%), while Trump is winning among White voters (51% to 42%).
Harris’ biggest lead among various age groups is in the 18-29 demographic, where she leads 61% to 33%. Trump does best among voters 85 and older, where he leads 48% to 38%.
Harris is also up with voters aged 30-44 (51% to 45%), 45-54 (47% to 43%) and 65-74 (48% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has an edge among voters aged 55-65 (49% to 47%) and 75-84 (49% to 47%).
SP&R conducted the survey Sept. 23 to Oct. 1. The poll has a 3.2-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris’ 5-point lead overall is larger than most major polling averages show. Nate Silver’s independent forecast has her up 3.4 points, while FiveThirtyEight gives her a 2.7-point lead and RealClearPolitics shows her ahead by 2.2 points.
It’s worth noting the election is decided state-by-state, not by the national popular vote, so it remains to be seen how Harris’ lead nationally will translate to the Electoral College. Forecasters do still seem to give Harris the edge there, however, with FiveThirtyEight giving her a 58% chance to win and bettors on PredictIt also pegging her as the favorite.
57 comments
Billy Rotberg
October 3, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Hillary by a landslide! It’s actual votes that matter, not polls.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 10:40 am
BILLY, it’s facts that matter, not the rantings of a low info punk.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:47 am
As always, Rick chimes in with his predictable childish behavior; unable to act like an adult.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:08 pm
BILLY BOY , you would see an adult coming into the room a bad or restrictive thing. keep the childishness up, it fits you well.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Thanks for proving my point Rick.
Jason
October 4, 2024 at 10:52 am
True Billy. But the MAGAs think these polls are gospel! LOL!
Michael
October 3, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Trump does best among voters 85 and older, where he leads 48% to 38%.
Doesn’t that say it all…….a man for the aged…oops, ages.
PeterH
October 3, 2024 at 4:21 pm
Independent voters are America’s second largest voting bloc in American politics. Republicans are third in line. Independents decide elections.
Billy Rotberg
October 3, 2024 at 4:54 pm
Prove your claim.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 3, 2024 at 4:56 pm
He also claims he is an independent.
A day without Peter Puffer
October 3, 2024 at 5:00 pm
Libturds lie about everything.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:11 pm
WRONG
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:10 pm
SO WHAT
A day without Libturds
October 4, 2024 at 1:00 pm
Stop yelling boomer.
Tom
October 4, 2024 at 7:44 am
As of March 2024, 30 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands allowed voters to indicate their partisan affiliations on voter registration forms and reported total registration numbers publicly.
As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.28%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.35% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 32.5 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 27.67% of registered voters in these areas.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:49 am
Without the other 20 states, it’s mere conjecture at this point.
Tom
October 4, 2024 at 2:03 pm
Not that it matters much but I’m thinking a little more than conjecture. ~240 million registered to vote and around 158 million people actually voted last time (~66%) while ~81 million registered voters did not vote. Proportionally, I think it’s fair to say that if all R’s vote R and all D’s vote D – the Independents/unaffiliated should be the decider. Unfortunately, a couple of thousand folks in the Midwest get to decide for us. It will be very close is my bet.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 10:36 am
`BILLY, prove you’re not a moron.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:51 am
Without the other 20 states, his claim is inconclusive. So it’s impossible to prove, therefore, he lied. You still lack the mentality to behave like an adult, Rick.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:13 pm
BILLY BOY is your iq 140 or over? ok, then pipe down you low info punk.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 11:00 am
BILLY BOY, can your mother bake a cherry pie billy boy. for some reason, you remind me of childish rhymes and fairytales..
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:53 am
So says Rick…The immature one who resorts to attacking people’s family members.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:06 pm
BILLY BOY, as you say it, i attacked you, not a family member . ” can she bake a cherry pie ” is a child’s nursery rhyme, not a family member. slow day at the moron club huh? billy boy cherry pie, is an annoying thing for a boy named billy to get teased about. i thought maybe part of your insolence and ism’s, must have come from childhood trauma in some way. ok billy boy?
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Shhh Rick. Adults are talking.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:57 pm
YEAH, SHUT UP. no, run your mouth and show your ignorance. whatever dude. billy boy, i’m an old man, i’ve lived the life you haven’t experienced yet. you don’t seem to have the tools or temperament to be happy, maybe latter on in your life. now, you are a total mess. all you seem to do is lash out mindlessly. that is a sign of needing help. what’s wrong in your life billy boy?
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:10 pm
WHY
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:34 pm
So you cannot avoid going off on tangents, Rick. Anyways with them negative waves in the morning!
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:45 pm
low info billy boy. watch the smart mouth son, i’ll ask your dad to take your allowance away.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:49 pm
What are you babbling about now, Rick?
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 4, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Why would anyone want to live your experience of being sodomized in a jungle like you Rick?
A day without Peter Puffer
October 3, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Pew research proves you are a lying sack of shit.
Michael K
October 3, 2024 at 5:49 pm
The Harris coalition is broad, expanding and welcoming – and younger.
Trump’s ceiling has never hit more than 46%, and he’s done nothing to expand his base. And he’s never won the popular vote.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 9:14 am
She’s doing worse than Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Get a better sales pitch.
JD
October 4, 2024 at 9:19 am
F@ck off scum bag.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:56 am
Talking to yourself in the mirror again JD.
Stop The DeSantards
October 4, 2024 at 9:57 am
Is that the latest Qanon poll telling you that LOL
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 11:59 am
CNN ABC and MSNBC are qnon polls? Last time I checked, they were not. Are you capable of responding without the personal attacks or are you another Rick or JD?
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:27 pm
BILL BOY that don’t stop you. you use a qanon mind to interpret the world, so that’s how you see it. you really don’t have a clue about politics and life, but you are too weak to admit it.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Rick’s word salad is just as bad as Harris. At least she tries to act like an adult at times.
BillyIsAJagweed
October 4, 2024 at 2:47 pm
8=>
Jason
October 4, 2024 at 10:54 am
Polls don’t determine elections. Voters do!
Jason
October 4, 2024 at 10:54 am
Very true. And right now Nationally he stand at about 46%. Kamala is closer to 50% Nationally!
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:00 pm
*Stands.
A day without Libturds
October 4, 2024 at 12:58 pm
Libturds are stupid illiterates.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 1:10 pm
LIPTURD, stop yelling, there is a strange but recognizable smell to your breath. oh yeah, i know what it is, it’s the smell of immaturity in your face, i’ve smelled it before. i guess i’m saying you are a maga cultist blowhard, and thus, unimportant in the big scheme of things. dude, you’re pathetic.
KathrynA
October 3, 2024 at 8:14 pm
So true, Michael and he continually alienates women, who happen to be a really huge voting block!
JD
October 4, 2024 at 9:18 am
LMAO
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:23 pm
BILLY BOY, are you going to do the right thing if harris wins?
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:37 pm
Are you going to ever progress beyond the mentality of a toddler Rick?
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 4, 2024 at 12:51 pm
Rick was abused sexually so he’s not right in the head.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:56 pm
I hope he may someday recover from Whatever it is that makes him so negative and hateful.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 12:42 pm
BILLY BOY, are you EVER going to think for yourself, i doubt it.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 12:51 pm
So you will always have the mentality of a toddler. Understood.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 1:23 pm
BILL BOY , are you ever going to act your age? no , i think you may stay the way you are for a long while. you don’t sound like you want to learn anything from others that know way more than you think you know. in other words, you are full of yourself, or shit, which ever way you want to say it. i don’t think the future is going to be too kind to your type. i hope your parents are rich, you’ll surly will need help soon. the punk world you live in is not real, but you haven’t figured that out yet. i have no sympathy for your punk ass.
Billy Rotberg
October 4, 2024 at 4:33 pm
What exactly would I learn from you Rick? How to be constantly negative, act like a child and spew hatred and lie? No thanks. Stay miserable…It’s what you choose.
yew oweme
October 4, 2024 at 5:17 pm
BILLY BOY, i thought about your question about exactly what you could learn from me, well, there were so many choices that i couldn’t decide on which things to list, i guess the short answer is, everything. the problem is a person has to want to learn. i taught adult ged preparation classes for about 2 years. i always started every lecture with, ” if you don’t want to be here, leave “. anyway, remember what franklin said, “wisdom is making mistakes, then learning from them “. people like trump and others don’t admit to being wrong, so they can’t learn. billy, do you ever admit to being wrong? if so, i haven’t heard you say it. some people have mental issues that prevent them from seeing themselves as others see them. trump comes to mind. you, i have no clue what your issues are at present. i wouldn’t attempt to teach you anything. you are unteachable. i’ve had employees like that. i use to try, but they taught me that they were unteachable. you say i’m miserable. wow, you couldn’t be more wrong. my retirement has been great. the type of comments that you make, is a give away to your character.
Tjb
October 4, 2024 at 5:22 pm
The Trump University Poll has trump leading by 180 % over Harris.
I agree. I paid my 100,000 dollars for my trump u. degree, so you know I the smartest person in Florida.
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