Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
Ed. Note — Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 storm, is inching closer to Florida’s Gulf Coast; residents and communities are hoping for the best and preparing for the worst — especially the Tampa Bay region. Sunburn will take a brief hiatus as we prepare here in Tampa Bay. Weather permitting, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics will return later in the week — unless Milton has other plans.
Wherever you are, please stay safe in the storm. Thanks again for your support!
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First Shot
Hurricane Milton is rounding the Yucatán Peninsula and is setting its sights on Tampa Bay.
The National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. update shows the storm making landfall in the Tampa Bay region late Wednesday, with an expected storm surge as high as 15 feet.
“If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials,” the update reads. “There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday.”
The center of the storm now sits about 480 miles southwest of Tampa. It is moving toward Florida’s Gulf Coast at about 8 miles per hour and expanding in size as it moves.
“Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula,” the update reads.
“Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.”
A hurricane warning on the Atlantic coast now covers all of Florida north of the St. Lucie-Martin county line. Martin County’s coast is now under hurricane watch.
“Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles,” the advisory reads.
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According to a new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, the presidential race is tight in Texas; Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by 5 points in the Lone Star State.
The poll, conducted between Oct. 2 and Oct. 6 in cooperation with Mainstreet Research USA, reveals close races for both the presidency and U.S. Senate in Texas, with notable divisions along gender and educational lines.
Trump leads Harris 50% to 45% among all voters. Trump leads with men 53% to 42%, while Harris and Trump appear to be in a statistical deadlock with women.
Trump dominates among non-college-educated White voters, with 63% to Harris’ 31%. But the race is closer among college-educated White voters, with Trump leading Harris 56% to 42%.
In the Texas Senate contest, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz maintains a slim advantage. Cruz, a Republican, leads Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred 46% to 43% among all voters, the poll found. However, 11% of voters remain undecided, which could swing the race in either direction.
Of 811 registered voters in Texas, those under 50 were evenly divided in the presidential race, while those over 50 favored Trump by nearly 9 points. Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (77%) and Allred (69.2%), while Hispanic voters lean Democratic but by smaller margins.
“These results highlight the continuing competitiveness of Texas in national elections,” said Kevin Wagner, Professor of Political Science at Florida Atlantic University and co-director of the FAU PolCom Lab. “The gender and education gaps we’re seeing could be crucial factors in determining the outcome in November.”
Evening Reads
—”As Milton takes aim at Florida, why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable to hurricanes?” via The Associated Press
—”Why these Floridians are fleeing Milton after some refused to evacuate last time” via Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Bryan Pietsch of The Washington Post
—”Why the Tampa area is so vulnerable to a hurricane” via Arian Campo-Flores, Deborah Acosta and Eric Niiler of The Wall Street Journal
—”Milton storm surge could be too much for Tampa General’s ‘AquaFence’” via Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times
—”Milton is the Hurricane that scientists were dreading” via Zoë Schlanger of The Atlantic
—”How Hurricane Milton exploded into a terrifying Category 5 storm in just hours” via Benji Jones of Vox
—”Trump and Republicans bet big on anti-trans ads across the country” via Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times
—“55/45 is a really close race” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—”Ron DeSantis seeks to silence brain cancer patient speaking out about her abortion” via Tessa Stuart of Rolling Stone
—“Jared Moskowitz bill would clear $8B in loans to hurricane-hit small businesses” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
Quote of the Day
“Quite frankly, you don’t know what’s behind that door in a Second Amendment state.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, warning would-be looters.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Gov. DeSantis gets a Poetic Justice for his rhyme warning would-be Milton looters that they could be met with shooters.
Help the Seaworld Crew enjoy a couple of days off — and, hopefully, come through Milton safely — with a round of Shutdown Ciders.
Tell your friends in St. Augustine there’s nothing wrong with skipping town a day early. At worst, they can enjoy a Premature Evacuation from a bar somewhere higher and dryer.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Panther’s season opener still scheduled to be played
It’s still on. For now.
The Florida Panthers’ season-opening game against the Boston Bruins, scheduled for Tuesday evening, will still take place (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Because the storm is not expected to hit South Florida directly, the two teams will continue the plan to play. The Bruins traveled on Sunday and practiced in Ft. Lauderdale. Boston hosts Montreal on Thursday.
On Monday, the Panthers canceled an event where players and staff were to be presented with championship rings from the team’s Stanley Cup win. Instead, the team was given their rings privately.
This isn’t the first time Mother Nature has ruined the Panthers’ victory celebrations. In June, a heavy rainstorm doused the team’s victory parade.
The championship banner is scheduled to be lifted into the rafters at Amerant Bank Arena during Tuesday’s game.
The Bruins will have something to prove in the game. Florida knocked Boston out of the playoffs in the last two seasons.
The Panthers are scheduled to depart on a four-game road trip following Tuesday’s game.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
