NYT poll shows Rick Scott comfortably leading Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in U.S. Senate race

On the same day another survey found a far smaller divide between the candidates in voter support, a New York Times poll determined incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott has a comfy lead — 9 percentage points — over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Interviewers from The Times and the Siena College Research Institute spoke with 622 Florida voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 by phone in English and Spanish. The poll, which had a 4-percentage-point margin of error, was weighted to account for demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents.

Its finding: 49% of likely voters in Florida plan to cast ballots for Scott, compared to 40% who say the same about Mucarsel-Powell, a one-term former Congresswoman. Almost all the remaining 11% didn’t know or refused to answer, with less than 0.5% who say they’ll instead support Libertarian Feena Bonoan.

Fifty-six percent of men and the same share of White voters side with Scott, Florida’s immediate past Governor. Among voters without a four-year college degree, 53% prefer the Republican.

Scott also leads with all age groups: 45%-42% with voters 18-29, 55%-30% with voters 30-44, 52%-40% with voters 45-64, and 46%-45% with voters 65 and older.

Meanwhile, Mucarsel-Powell’s strongest support is among Black voters (62%) and non-White college graduates (51%). Scott is deep underwater with Black voters, of whom just 18% say they support him. However, 20% of Black voters report being undecided in the race or refuse to say whom they prefer.

Mucarsel-Powell leads among Hispanic voters (47%-40%). Scott, conversely, leads with voters who identified as being of another race or mixed-race (54%-33%).

Notably, 55% of respondents who say they either don’t plan to vote in the presidential race or will vote for someone other than Donald Trump and Kamala Harris say they are unsure whom they’ll pick for the U.S. Senate seat.

Ten percent of registered Democrats say they’ll cross party lines and vote for Scott. Seven percent of Republicans say they’ll do the same for Mucarsel-Powell.

Pollsters noted that Scott and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, lead by smaller margins in their states than Trump is ahead of Harris.

NYT/Siena published their poll results Thursday, the same day Marist Poll released new numbers showing that of 1,257 likely voters in Florida its pollsters spoke with, 50% plan to vote for Scott compared to 48% who say they’ll support his opponent.

Other recent polls found Scott with a larger lead than Marist determined, but smaller than the NYT/Siena figure. That included an Associated Industries of Florida survey conducted late last month showing Scott ahead by 7 points and another by Redfield & Wilton that marked Scott 4 points in front of Mucarsel-Powell.

The General Election is on Nov. 5.