Florida GOP says Donald Trump victory ‘assured,’ cites poll showing strong minority support

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Democrats in Florida may be engaged statewide in grassroots campaigning for the otherwise absent Kamala Harris ticket.

But Republicans have consistently said it’s all for naught, and three weeks ahead of votes being counted, the Florida GOP is producing polling that shows Donald Trump with majority support and a 7-point lead.

“Our polling shows what any sane observer already knows: Florida is not in play for Kamala Harris and the Democrats,” said Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) Chair Evan Power. “President Trump has a strong lead over Kamala Harris here, and this has been consistent in both public and private polling for months.”

Trump, per the released internal polling, is up 51% to 44%. To put that read from the Tarrance Group survey in perspective, it is slightly more optimistic than the RealClearPolitics’ average 6.1-point lead for the former President in a state he’s carried twice.

The poll suggests that Harris is deeply underwater with Hispanic voters, with 69% behind Trump. And Black voters, long held as central to any Democratic coalition, aren’t monolithic either, as 1 in 5 polled back the former President.

The survey also shows Harris underwater in terms of job approval, with 54% disapproving of her work as Vice President. The poll shows 53% view her leadership qualities negatively, while 56% of respondents believe she’s to the left of President Joe Biden.

Immigration and the economy, two major issues for Trump, are the top priorities for a third of the electorate. Meanwhile, reproductive rights, which are key for Democratic hopes, matter most to only 1 in 10 poll respondents.

“Facts matter, and here are the facts in Florida: There are one million more Republicans than Democrats, the RPOF political machine is working around the clock to turn out our voters, Democrats are not investing significant resources here, and Republicans win on key issues like the border and the economy. This all adds up to one thing: Florida will stay ‘red’ this election,” Power promised.

While Democrats tout a “Republicans for Harris” movement, amid marches and golf cart parades in places ranging from St. Augustine to the Villages, the RPOF clearly is betting on a silent majority picking Trump for the third time in eight years in next month’s election.