Dems lead Republicans in mail ballots returned, with room to stretch lead further

Democracy is in the mail. Image via AP.

Florida Democrats are leading their Republican counterparts in the number of mail-in ballots returned so far, with just 20 days before votes are counted. But Republicans have returned a larger share of requested ballots.

According to the Florida Department of State, 303,597 mail ballots have been cast as of Wednesday morning already by people registered with the Florida Democratic Party, while 262,136 ballots have been returned by members of the Republican Party of Florida.

Additionally, 129,474 ballots from no-party voters have been cast, as have 14,152 third-party ballots.

In total, 709,359 ballots have been returned overall, roughly a third of the 2,481,599 requested.

Republicans, though they have an active registered voter edge of nearly 1,155,000, did not prioritize vote-by-mail in 2020 as they had in previous cycles. That didn’t materially matter in a state where Democrats struggled in previous cycles. But their return rate thus far (31.2%) is slightly more than that of Democrats (29.1%), who have more outstanding absentee ballots to be cast: 1,042,690 to 839,853.

Democrats are banking their lead particularly in high-population counties where they perform better historically than Republicans.

In Broward, they more than double the GOP return rate, with an advantage of more than 17,000.

In Miami-Dade, their edge is more than 10,500 votes.

With 13,999 returned in Orange, they have so far nearly doubled the GOP return rate.

And in Palm Beach, they more than double Republicans, with a more than 22,000-vote edge.

Republicans are well ahead of Democrats in other counties of note, including Collier and Lee.

The open question is how predictive party registration is of voter performance. Democrats have tended to perform better in early and mail-in voting in recent cycles, with Republicans making up the difference — and then some — on Election Day.