A.G. Gancarski
Is Florida in play?
Well, if you’re wagering, you may want a point spread in statewide races, per the analysis of one of the most plugged-in Republican strategists in the Sunshine State.
Ryan Tyson believes that presidential candidate Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott will outperform most public polls of the race and the “comfortable, outside-the-margin ballot advantages” those samples confer, given a red wave in turnout.
“Our recent tracking suggests that the race has broken more to their advantage,” Tyson wrote in a memo.
He expects an R+11 turnout model that mirrors registration in the state (which has the GOP with more than 1.1 million more active registered voters than Democrats) and ongoing turnout trends, and predicts Trump winning by 13 percentage points and Scott by 12 points.
These margins, if they come to pass, will sharply deviate from previous General Elections in the state.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 1.2 percentage points in 2016, and Joe Biden by 3.4 points in 2020, which was the biggest Florida margin in any election since the “Skull and Bones” contest between President George W. Bush and his Democratic collegiate secret society fellow member John F. Kerry.
A 13-point win would cement the contention, made by Gov. Ron DeSantis and others, that Florida is a red state now.
For Scott, a 13-point win would be even more significant, especially given that he needed a recount to overcome then-incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018, when Scott ran as a termed-out Governor.
The key, Tyson said, is “turning out low-propensity voters in large numbers,” a Trump specialty that swayed the 2016 campaign and appears, in Florida and perhaps elsewhere, to have a potentially meaningful impact when votes are counted next month.
High-propensity voters will turn out, Tyson predicted, as Democratic turnout is “lagging so severely” and lurching toward a collapse more reminiscent of 2022 than previous Presidential Election cycles.
29 comments
Bobble head Kammy
October 25, 2024 at 10:18 am
MH saving her cash. Good move MH. 🤣
A Day without Trump Trash
October 25, 2024 at 10:57 am
Trump has probably destroyed half of White people family, and probably yours,lots of your White relatives look down on you as being ignorant for support Trump Google Trump Divide White Family
Billy Rotberg
October 25, 2024 at 11:12 am
Has no money to bet with.
A Day without MAGA
October 25, 2024 at 12:03 pm
I have more money under my bed,than you have in the bank
MH/Duuuval
October 26, 2024 at 4:44 pm
Confederate war bonds is what they have in their stash.
A Day without Trump Redemption
October 25, 2024 at 10:18 am
Trump bring out the worst in White people that support him,he personally has nothing redemning for the White people that support him,but the worst racist attribute in his core White supporters and if you one of them,he has successfully done this for you,if you are one of these supporters, prove me wrong,by writing one thing redemning about Trump
Michael K
October 25, 2024 at 10:22 am
Ah yes, the promise of the red wave that never materialized…
So now we learn of Elon Musk’s ties to Putin since 2022, and his billions of dollars of federal contracts, and likely illegal vote and petition signature buying. More corruption in the light of day.
I will believe the generals who served with distinction over the lies and denials of a twice-impeached convicted felon.
Bobble head Kammy
October 25, 2024 at 10:25 am
MH wouldn’t take the bet, how about you? I say Scott will easily defeat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Come on. Of course Gen Kelly’s remarks less than two weeks before the election aren’t politically motivated. Oh and Hillary thinks we are all Hitler youth. She is the deplorable one. Sounds like the Demo machine is getting nervous and Pelosi hitting the Vodka hard.
Michael
October 25, 2024 at 10:38 am
Yes, I will take both Democrats +13 points….$500 on each of POTUS and Senate races. Care to put your money behind your mouth?
Billy Rotberg
October 25, 2024 at 10:55 am
If what they had to offer was so great they would sick to pushing it. There would be no need to whine about trump. But it’s so obvious they have nothing to offer.
MH/Duuuval
October 25, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Vanessa Guillen: Just the latest example of DJT reneging on a promise.
Who would take a promise — or even make a small wager with such a devious individual?
MH/Duuuval
October 25, 2024 at 8:02 pm
Vanessa Guillen: The US Army enlisted at base who was harassed, then murdered. Trump boo-hood her murder and offered to pay for her funeral. But, when the fill came due, Trump stiffed her family just as he has sitffed so many before.
No one with any sense bets with MAGA — they will cut and run when they lose.
Billy Rotberg
October 25, 2024 at 10:58 am
Harris is weak which is why Putin endorsed her. Those who support Harris want the weakness which means Harris voters are Russian assets.
A Day without MAGA
October 25, 2024 at 12:01 pm
You more Russian than anyone here,with a Russian name
The Cat 5 Hurricane in a Hat
October 25, 2024 at 8:56 pm
Rotberg,is of Russian,drinking your Vodka
Ocean Joe
October 26, 2024 at 2:05 pm
Instead of “Remember Benghazi!,” how about “REMEMBER HELSINKI,” speaking of Russian assets, and why does Trump call Putin so much, or send him Covid protection when some here were going without?
Ocean Joe
October 26, 2024 at 2:06 pm
Instead of “Remember Benghazi!,” how about “REMEMBER HELSINKI,” speaking of Russian assets, and why does Trump call him so much?
MH/Duuuval
October 26, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Apparently it’s a three-way phone relationship among Putin, DJT, and Musk. All of whom worship money and power.
A Day without Trump Trash
October 25, 2024 at 10:27 am
Trump bring out the worst racist attribute,in his his White supporters,their is nothing redemning in Trump and his racist trash supporters,they wonder why others White look down on them as being racist MAGA trash,
Billy Rotberg
October 25, 2024 at 11:01 am
Vote for me or you ain’t black. -Biden.
Gonna put y’all back it chains-Biden.
I don’t want my kids growing up in a racial jungle- Biden.
YOU are the racist trash.
A Day without MAGA
October 25, 2024 at 11:47 am
Your last name is Jewish,and what Trump say about Hitler,what he thinks about Jews and you
A Day without MAGA
October 25, 2024 at 11:59 am
Rotberg, Google Rotberg Russian Jewish Origin
A Day without Being Use By Trump
October 25, 2024 at 10:38 am
Trump do.not care about his White supporters,and definitely do.not care about Cuban,as long he can use them like a woman,use a sanitary napkins to be dispose after use Google Trump Racist Trash
Jason
October 25, 2024 at 11:05 am
We no. Citizens we vote Pablo and pings people next round
MH/Duuuval
October 25, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Peachy and his screen ali-asses are riding high, but the world got a view 6 years ago of how close Trick Scott was to tears when it looked like Nelson beat him. Trick was on TV stamping his foot like Rumplestilskin and demanding a full investigation.
Should Debs pull off an upset there won’t be any end to the gnashing of Trick’s teeth and his public anguish.
I Am Speaking
October 25, 2024 at 7:03 pm
There will be no upset MH by Mucarsel-Powell. You probably thought that Demings was going to beat Rubio as well. Maybe next time. Now I f we can only get rid of Wasserman-Schultz.
The Cat 5 Hurricane in a Hat
October 25, 2024 at 8:43 pm
Bet a tropical Storm coming to.Florida on election Day
MH/Duuuval
October 26, 2024 at 4:49 pm
My hunch is that most of those alleged female friends of Peachy will vote against Scott and DJT.
Cat 5 Patty
October 26, 2024 at 7:23 am
I still wondering why a forecast track for Patty ,has not been issued by the NHC, warning Florida of impending destruction of election day,unless they will leave people scrambling on election day, standing in flood water and power outage trying to vote on election day