Lindsay Cross faces Ed Montanari in a race that puts Democrats on the defense

(L-R) Incumbent Democratic Rep. Lindsay Cross and Republican Ed Montanari. Images via the candidates.

House District 60, nestled within the city of St. Petersburg, is one of the rare opportunities across the state for Republicans to further grow their supermajority. And the party believes they have the right man for the job in Ed Montanari.

But getting past incumbent Democratic state Rep. Lindsay Cross won’t be an easy feat, and Montanari faces a couple of big obstacles. He’s running against a popular incumbent, and the district still favors Democrats.

Montanari, a current member of the St. Pete City Council who is term-limited out of office this year, is exactly the type of candidate GOP strategists imagine for a district like HD 60. It’s blue, but not blue enough to be out of reach. And Montanari is a strong conservative, but he’s shown plenty of ability to work across the aisle and don a moderate hat.

Cross, meanwhile, is also a great candidate for a somewhat swingy district — though her campaign would argue this district is not one of those. She’s become skilled at bringing home resources for her constituents, despite serving in the minority party. And Republican colleagues, though they disagree with her on partisan issues, have worked with her on legislation.

So what should voters expect as the votes are tallied Tuesday night? In 2024, nothing should be ruled out, but it’s likely the race will be close. Here are some things to watch in the matchup between Montanari and Cross.

Is it really swingy?

Voter registration numbers in HD 60 are tricky. On the surface, the district seems to be shifting right.

Democrats enjoy a voter registration advantage of a little more than 3,000 voters, with 40,285 registered Democrats compared to 37,248 Republicans, according to the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections’ district voter registration data from July. That’s an advantage for Cross of a little less than 3 percentage points.

A look at historic voter registration data for the district available on the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections website shows that in 2020, the last Presidential Election year, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 7 percentage points.

But those numbers include only active voters. When counting inactive voters, the advantage for Democrats — and by proxy, Cross — increases to about 6 percentage points, or about 6,000 voters.

Inactive voters are eligible to vote. Voters are declared inactive if there is reason to believe their address has changed (usually through information provided from the U.S. Postal Service when a person provides change-of-address information) and they don’t respond to a request for updated information, or if the voter has not voted in the past two federal General Elections.

A 2023 law toughened voter roll maintenance requirements for local Supervisors of Elections, which led to nearly 1 million voters statewide being moved from active to inactive status. It imposed the two-election requirement to move voters to the inactive list.

And the trend cannot be entirely attributed to the district becoming more red. The number of active voters in the district is lower now than it was in 2020, despite population growth. And the number of inactive voters has grown every election cycle, with 7,238 voters on the inactive rolls four years ago, 12,789 in 2022 and 27,260 this year. (The district in 2020 was House District 68; it became HD 60 in 2022 as a result of redistricting.)

Cross’ campaign, asked about voter registration trends in early September, rejected the notion that the district is moving toward the GOP.

“The insinuation that only active voters count is categorically incorrect,” Cross Campaign Manager Will Shedden said. “The 60th District is trending away from Republicans, and Representative Cross led all statewide Democrats in her district because she listens and she fights on their side.”

The issues

For what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races this cycle, the campaigns have been largely quiet, and mostly void of any negative campaigning. Montanari even praised Cross in an interview with Florida Politics following Hurricane Helene for her efforts trying to expand the My Safe Florida Home Program to help residents harden homes against flooding, though he added that he’d have a better shot at success serving from the majority.

Cross has attacked Montanari on at least one issue: abortion.

It’s a topic Democrats are leaning into heavily this election cycle. It remains salient after the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, removing federal bans on strict abortion bans and kicking the issue to states. It became more salient after an Alabama Supreme Court decision threatened in vitro fertilization access. And in Florida it is especially relevant considering Cross shares the ballot with Amendment 4, an effort by reproductive freedom advocates to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution.

Cross launched an ad in late September attacking Montanari over votes he made related to abortion while serving on the City Council. To be clear, the City Council has no authority to regulate, or deregulate, abortion access. But the board did consider providing city funding to help pay for residents’ out-of-state abortion care.

Montanari voted against the measure twice. In the final vote on the abortion measure, only two City Council members voted in favor, with the others arguing the move would subject the city to potentially costly litigation as it would likely violate state preemption.

But Montanari, during that same meeting last April, also voted against a symbolic resolution supporting a women’s right to choose and urging Mayor Ken Welch’s administration not to spend money on any activity that would criminalize abortion. Montanari in that vote was one of just two Council members to vote against the resolution, with others seeing the measure as a way to show support for women without risking costly legal action.

The ad featured a local veterinarian, Dr. Abi O’Connor, somberly retells her own tragic abortion experience.

“I needed an abortion to save my life,” she explains. “So, when politicians like Ed Montanari vote against access to abortion, they’re voting against critical care for women in the worst moments of their lives. Women shouldn’t die because of extreme politicians.”

Politicking amid back-to-back hurricanes

Both Cross and Montanari temporarily suspended campaign activities amid preparation for and recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. And both rolled up their sleeves to help residents who were suffering devastation.

Montanari was himself heavily impacted, with his home and both vehicles flooded. Despite dealing with the massive undertaking that is navigating the property and flood insurance process, Montanari immediately got to work searching for solutions for impacted residents, both short-term and long-term.

Montanari said he’s working with state officials to establish a program where people are able to perhaps live in habitable trailers on their own properties. It’s a possibility that would provide a workable solution to the housing crisis that the storm exacerbated, while also allowing property owners to stay on their properties to oversee remediation construction.

He’s also looking ahead to a potential first term in the Legislature, with property insurance now his top priority. That includes, Montanari recently told Florida Politics, continuing to refine tort laws surrounding the insurance industry. It also includes investigating possible bad actors who attempt to undercompensate storm or other disaster victims.

Cross, meanwhile, showed up to help residents. After both hurricanes, Cross participated in several cleanup and resource distribution events, and she helped collect items for storm victims.

In her official capacity, Cross also asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency to deploy Direct Temporary Housing for residents who were displaced by either hurricane. Her request included access to manufactured housing units, transportable housing units and direct leases.

About the candidates

Cross is an environmental scientist with more than two decades of experience, particularly in clean water efforts in the Tampa Bay area. As such, one of her campaign priorities is ensuring access to a clean Tampa Bay and healthy drinking water.

Other campaign priorities include lowering insurance costs; stabilizing rising utility rates; increasing affordable housing options; protecting reproductive freedom; supporting small business; growing the local economy; strengthening public schools; and ensuring access to quality, affordable health care.

Montanari is a retired commercial pilot and served as a fighter pilot in the U.S. Air Force. He was first elected to the City Council in 2015. This is his first campaign for partisan office.

In addition to reforming Florida’s insurance industry, Montanari’s campaign priorities also include investing in the environment; making housing affordable; securing our borders; prioritizing flood resilience; ensuring quality education through expanded school choice; and standing with police.

So, who’s going to win?

There hasn’t been much polling on the race, at least not from sources that share them. One poll, an internal one from Cross’ campaign, shows a big advantage for the incumbent Democrat, with a double-digit lead over Montanari. Her 12-point lead in that poll overperforms the top of the ticket, where just 43% of respondents favored a generic Democrat, compared to the 50% who said they support Cross.

Matt Isbell of MCI Maps also released an analysis of 2022 voting trends showing the district has stayed plenty blue, and in some cases went more blue. For U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, voters in the district rejected him by nearly 2 percentage points more in 2022 than in 2016. In the Governor’s race, which saw a bludgeoning of Charlie Crist by Gov. Ron DeSantis and led a massive statewide red wave that cycle, HD 60 stayed blue, even with a 10-point swing toward the right.

But Republicans, and Montanari himself, still see an opening.

“This is a very winnable race for us,” Montanari previously told Florida Politics, pointing to active voter rolls. “Voter registration is rapidly trending in our direction, and I am proud to have the complete backing of the Florida House Majority Campaign Committee and many elected officials in Pinellas County.”

Both candidates have been well-funded in their fight, though Cross has consistently held a fundraising edge.