Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email during the 2024 campaign — 10.27.24

Good Sunday morning, and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about Florida’s 2024 campaign cycle. The next Brunch will be on Sunday, Nov. 3, two days before the General Election.

Michelle, Ella, and I are wrapping up an extraordinarily fun weekend in New Orleans, where the girls took in the first night of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. The city is decked out in friendship bracelet displays, Swift-themed storefronts, and other nods to the music sensation. Laissez les bons temps rouler!

Happy birthday to the godfather of New Media, Matt Drudge; former lawmaker and former Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher; our friend Bryan Glazer, co-Chair of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Rep. Mike Giallombardo, devoted Sunburn reader; and GOP activist extraordinaire Deborah Cox Roush, and the Tampa Bay Business Journal’s Alexis Muellner.

Now, please enjoy Brunch!

— Rick Scott’s closing case —

Throughout the campaign, U.S. Sen. Scott has traveled to all 67 counties in Florida, some multiple times, and he isn’t slowing down in the days left until the election. He is getting to every corner of the state to talk to voters about what he says is at stake in this election.

— Sunday service: For the next two Sundays, Scott will visit several megachurches to share his vision for the country and encourage congregation members to vote.

— Monday moves: On Monday, Scott will travel to Sarasota, Charlotte, and Collier counties to rally supporters to vote early and do everything they can to encourage friends and family to vote.

— Later this week: On Tuesday, he’ll travel to the space coast before he heads south on Wednesday for early voting events in Palm Beach and Miami. To round out the week, Scott will head to Tampa, Orlando and back to Miami for more get-out-the-vote stops with surrogates.

— No stopping ‘til the end: On Election Day, Scott is barnstorming the state with multiple stops between Jacksonville and Naples, where he will hold his Election Night watch party.

— Lincoln Project does NFL Sunday —

The leaders at the Lincoln Project are bringing a closing message to voters by hitting NFL stadiums for some of the biggest matchups this week and next.

— The game plan: The Lincoln Project will circulate billboard trucks around two NFL stadiums this week with three different ads on repeat: “One Choice,” “Choose Change” and “He/Him.” The ads aim to influence disaffected Republicans and undecided independents as the campaign nears a close.

— Teams targeted: The trucks will appear in Detroit from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. as the Lions host the Tennessee Titans at 1 p.m. The same effort will take place from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. on Monday in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers host the New York Giants for Monday Night Football. Michigan and Pennsylvania, of course, are two of the top swing states in this election.

— More to come: The effort will continue next Sunday, with trucks appearing in Green Bay, Wisconsin, as the Packers host the Lions, and Philadelphia, where the Jacksonville Jaguars will visit the Eagles.

— The ol’ college try: Those trucks also appeared at Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines home games yesterday. Next Saturday, they will visit the Wolverines stadium again and the homes of the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans.

To watch “One Choice,” please click the image below:

 

— Love for the Gov —

According to new numbers from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Ron DeSantis easily has the majority of support among Floridians, who rate his job performance.

— Who digs DeSantis? The Cherry Communications poll, conducted on behalf of the Chamber, finds that 57% of Floridians have a favorable view of the Governor about halfway through his second term.

— Praise for storm response: A whopping 76% of voters approve of how the Governor has handled Hurricanes Helene and Milton. DeSantis pushed hard for debris removal on the Tampa/St. Pete area when the local response was lacking and has shepherded a quick response in other storms during his tenure as well.

— The fine print: The survey ran from Oct. 10-20 and sampled 614 likely voters. It has a margin of error of four percentage points.

— Souls to the polls —

The Kamala Harris-Tim Walz campaign is looking to encourage voters to vote early this weekend in Florida.

— Madison: Lawyer Ben Crump will be on hand in Madison County at 3 p.m. to engage Black voters and encourage them to vote for the Democratic ticket. Precise locations and details for this event and others were not immediately available.

— South Florida: The Harris-Walz campaign will also hold similar events in southern Miami-Dade County (2 p.m.) and Pembroke Pines in Broward County (2:30 p.m.) to help turn out Black voters.

— Other efforts: The campaign also hosted events on Saturday in Lee and Orange counties.

The early voting period kicked off in some places on Monday. However, all Florida counties were required to open up early voting sites by Saturday, meaning this weekend will be significant for measuring turnout trends.

— Electioneering by DCF? —

Is the Department of Children and Families (DCF) funding education campaigns against Amendment 3, a recreational marijuana measure, and Amendment 4, which would restore abortion rights?

— Earmarked: The Legislature budgeted $18 million from the Opioid Settlement Trust Fund for a drug prevention media campaign. The budget line requires targeting communities disproportionately impacted by opioid and other substance abuse.

— Pot order: Jason Garcia, an independent journalist with Seeking Rents, noted a purchase order that shows DCF spent $4 million of that on an advertising campaign “about the dangers of marijuana, opioid, and drug use.”

— More for abortion: Another $1.1 million from the money went to “Additional Services related to Mothers, Babies, and Families.”

— Revelation: All this comes as Gov. Ron DeSantis devotes his political energies almost exclusively to defeating the amendments and as DCF has come under fire for spending taxpayer money on political efforts to defeat the measures.

— Just say no —

CALM-FLA, a political committee opposed to legalizing recreational pot, is out with digital ads pushing parents to oppose Amendment 3.

— Joint effort: Mother Maureen France started the Citizens Against Legalizing Marijuana group in Florida to oppose the ballot initiative that would legalize recreational pot for adults in Florida. The new ad tells a story about her son’s troubles, which she attributes to the drug.

— The ad: “My son got into a friend group that wanted to smoke marijuana. His life has just been complete chaos ever since. He almost burned our house down. He was on the run; police were chasing him. One day, he called, ‘Mom, I am in a mental hospital in Orlando.’ That’s the sad truth is, the illnesses (are) not reversible. You’re taking a huge risk.”

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

 

— Abortion rights rally —

The first weekend of early voting features advocates looking to stir support for Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights protections in Florida’s Constitution.

— March to the polls: The “Yes on 4” organizers will march to the polls in Fort Lauderdale at 1 p.m., following sign-making at 11:30 a.m. and a noon rally in favor of the abortion rights initiative.

— The location: Esplanade Park, 400 SW 2nd St., is hosting the rally. The march will move through the Riverfront in downtown Fort Lauderdale. Attendees will then arrive at the Broward County Government Center, 115 S Andrews Ave, to cast their early ballots.

— Featured speakers: Senate Democratic Leader Lauren Book will headline the event. Other elected officials include Coral Springs Commissioner Nancy Metayer-Bowen and Pembroke Pines Commissioner Maria Rodriguez and various other advocates backing the ballot measure.

— Money race —

Florida Politics this week identified the 10 most likely House races that could flip from one party’s control to the other’s this cycle. Following up, here are totals raised and cash on hand numbers after combing through candidates’ campaign accounts and political committees under their control.

— HD 106: Rep. Fabián Basabe, a Republican, has raised almost $397,000 and has $253,000 cash on hand as of the latest reports. Democratic challenger Joe Saunders raised nearly $463,000 with almost $170,000 cash left.

— HD 45: Republican Rep. Carolina Amesty has raised more than $490,000 and maintains $73,000. Democratic challenger Leonard Spencer reported almost $131,000 in fundraising and $32,000 remaining.

— HD 37: Rep. Susan Plasencia, a Republican, raised over $232,000 and holds $78,000. Democratic opponent Nate Douglas raised almost $402,000 with nearly $202,000 left.

— HD 47: Rep. Paula Stark, a Republican, collected almost $161,000 and has about $36,000 left. Democrat Maria Revelles hauled in more than $129,000 and has more than $35,000 remaining.

— HD 35: Rep. Tom Keen, a Democrat, raised upward of $230,000 and has more than $25,000 cash on hand. Republican Erika Booth raised more than $154,000 and has about $58,000 left.

— HD 38: Rep. David Smith, a Republican, raised upward of $933,000 with almost $165,000 remaining. Democrat Sarah Henry collected nearly $158,000 with more than $34,000 still in the bank.

— HD 91: Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman, a Republican, brought in almost $244,000 with more than $104,000 remaining. Democratic challenger Jay Shooster reported more than $813,000 in fundraising with $57,000 still available.

— HD 60: Rep. Lindsay Cross, a Democrat, hauled in more than $1.12 million, with about $94,000 cash on hand. Republican Ed Montanari has raised almost $36,000, with $41,000 remaining.

— HD 113: Rep. Vicki Lopez, a Republican, has raised almost $1.05 million, with more than $112,000 cash available. Democrat Jackie Gross-Kellogg brought in more than $57,000, with more than $8,100 remaining.

— HD 93: Rep. Katherine Waldron, a Democrat, has collected almost $308,000, with more than $82,000 in cash on hand. Republican Anne Gerwig raised over $163,999 and has over $75,000 left.

— Flush for final stretch —

We’ve got just over a week until Election Day, and new fundraising reports just released Friday show who has plenty of cash stacked for the final days.

— Senate powerhouses: Republican Sen. Corey Simon in Senate District 3 is topping the list, with nearly $605,000 still available. He’s followed by Republican candidate and former Senate President Don Gaetz (SD 1, just under $462,000), Republican Senate President-designate Ben Albritton (SD 27, $311,000), Republican Sen. Ed Hooper (SD 21, $153,000) and Republican Senate candidate and current Rep. Tom Leek (SD 7, $112,000).

— House honchos: Republican Rep. Basabe of House District 106 is ahead here, with just under $249,000 in cash at the ready. He’s followed by Republican candidate Judson Sapp (HD 20, $213,000), Republican candidate J.J. Grow (HD 23, $172,000), Democratic Rep. Robin Bartleman (HD 103, $152,000) and Republican candidate Danny Nix (HD 75, $146,000).

— What’s it mean? Those totals only capture campaign account cash, not political committee funds. And for some candidates, like Simon and Basabe, it shows incumbents with plenty of resources to make their closing case in highly competitive races. Others, like Gaetz and Sapp, are sitting on cash because they are favored big in November and can afford to.

— Sense of Pasco —

St. Pete Polls tested the waters inside potential bellwether Pasco County to gauge voters’ sense of high-profile races, even as Florida goes through its first cycle in years where few call it a swing state.

— Top of the ticket: Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris here with 57% to her under 40%.

— Weighted GOP: The pollster weighted the results to reflect a turnout of 45% Republicans, 28% Democrats and 27% others. The poll has a 4.7-percentage-point margin of error.

— Senate race: Consistent with other polling, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott underperforms Trump but still leads. He’s up 53% to Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s 43%.

— In the House: In the low-stakes race in Florida’s 12th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis leads Democrat Rock Aboujaoude 60% to 33%.

— FlaminGO to the polls —

They say art can inspire great things, so one artist is using that theory to help motivate Floridians to get to the polls, using giant flamingoes!

— The art: The sculpture is located at the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections building and features larger than life flamingoes casting their ballots behind voting booths. “One flamingo has its head down deep in thought, while the other two flamingos are sizing each other up or trying to see who the other one is voting for,” reads an explanation of the installation.

— The artist: Matthew Mazzotta designed the new sculpture, appropriately titled “VOTE!” Palm Beach County commissioned the work, and it’s not the first time he has used flamingoes for inspiration.

— Environmental awareness: The project, located at the Supervisor’s Office and with Election Day closing in, is about more than just voting, however. Mazzotta deliberately used wildlife to help Floridians be mindful of the nature surrounding all of us in this great state, as we work to decide its future.

— Spooky season —

Several Florida cities are among the best in the U.S. to celebrate Halloween on Thursday, according to a study from WalletHub.

— Tops in Florida: Miami ranked No. 3 in the nation. “It has a very high number of pumpkin patches and Halloween party supply stores per capita. It also has the ninth-most Halloween costume stores and ninth-most candy stores per capita, making it easy to grab all of the essentials for the holiday,” WalletHub analysts said. “Miami also has plenty of places to go trick-or-treating, with the sixth-highest population density in the nation. It’s the sixth-most walkable city, too.”

— Other spine-tingling cities: Hialeah ranked No. 14 in WalletHub’s analysis, with Orlando placing 16th and Tampa at No. 23.

WalletHub researchers measured 100 U.S. cities and factored in trick-or-treat friendliness, other Halloween escapades, and weather, among other things.

— Tua returns —

When Miami Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returns to the field Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals (1 p.m. FOX), he will not take the added precaution of wearing a Guardian cap.

— Concussion discussion: The padded cap fits over a football helmet and reduces the frequency and intensity of concussions caused by hard hits to the head. Tagovailoa has been diagnosed with at least three concussions in his NFL career, including one sustained in a Week 2 game against the Buffalo Bills. He has not played since.

— No cap? Tagovailoa said it was a personal choice not to wear the cap. His teammate, running back De’Von Achane, wore one last week after returning from a concussion. He told reporters on Monday that he did not want to keep answering questions about his health as he did last year. “Do I want to be known for this? No, I don’t,” Tagovailoa said. “But that’s the cards I’ve been dealt with given the history of it. So, it is what it is.”

— QB doldrums: The Dolphins (2-4) have utilized three quarterbacks in Tagovailoa’s place since his injury. Tyler Huntly, Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle have combined to lose three of four games since Tagovailoa was taken off the field in Buffalo. The only win came against the New England Patriots, arguably the worst team in the league. Arizona (3-4) is coming off a win against the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

— Jaguars win streak? —

After winning in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars return home to face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX).

— Turnaround time? Jacksonville (2-5) played its best game of the season against one of the worst teams in the NFL, defeating the New England Patriots 32-16 last Sunday at Wembley Stadium. Today’s challenge is much more significant. The Packers (5-2) have won three straight games, including a 24-22 win on Sunday against the Houston Texans on a Brandon McManus field goal as time expired.

— Season of struggles: Jacksonville struggled on both sides of the ball early in the season, but quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played good football for the past three weeks, including two Jaguars victories. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas has emerged as one of the best deep threats in the NFL and the offensive line has improved since the start of the season. But the defense’s stumbles continue. While the pass rush modestly improved, the Jaguars will continue giving up big plays in the passing game. The return of top cornerback Tyson Campbell last week helped a bit.

— Tough road ahead: The game marks the start of a five-game stretch for the Jaguars all against likely playoff teams. After today’s game, the Jaguars will face the Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans over the next month.

— Brunching out —

The Monroe at SoMo Walls has been Tallahassee’s hottest reservation since its soft opening on July 2. It’s part of the largest new, $11 million redevelopment project on the city’s South Monroe Corridor.

— Backstory: Restaurateur Jesse Edmunds, the chef and co-owner of The Monroe and the adjacent Walls Distillery Co., is a well-known culinary figure in the Capital City. He owns the Seven Hills Hospitality Group, which launched Liberty Bar & Restaurant, El Cocinero, Bar 1903, The Hawthorn Bistro & Bakery, the Black Radish and Rae’s Restaurant.

— Setting: The restaurant is a trendsetting, attractive restaurant you’d find in many big cities. The dining room is open and breezy, with a full bar overlooking the expansive patio. There’s often live music, generally jazz, which complements but doesn’t overwhelm the vibe. On one visit, we sat on some couches to sip drinks, eat snacks, and listen.

— The menu: The cuisine is labeled Modern American. The brunch menu features some breakfast items with a twist. Our eggs Benedict, for instance, was made with toasted focaccia as a base, topped with slices of mortadella, spinach, grilled tomatoes, poached eggs and a smooth, creamy hollandaise sauce. It’s served with potato wedges or cheese grits. Both are good, but the potatoes are addictive. Other items include a breakfast platter, omelets, biscuits and gravy. Among the lunch choices are burgers, sandwiches, and large-format items you’ll want to share, such as steak and eggs, breakfast tacos and chicken and waffles.

— Beverages: Classics such as a Bloody Mary and mimosa are available, along with house cocktails such as a Pimm’s Cup, Mojito and Magic Missile (vodka, strawberry, Aperol, lemon and soda). There’s vodka from the new Walls Distillery Co. Monroe is the retail front for the distillery. “Barrels are incoming for whiskey and barrel-aged rum and gin,” Edmunds said, adding there will be five items by the end of the year.

— Details: The Monroe is at 1327 S. Monroe St.; 448-231-2965. Hours: 5 to 10 p.m. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday; 5 to 11 p.m. Friday. On Saturday, brunch is from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. and dinner is from 5 to 11 p.m. On Sunday, the brunch is available from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. (no dinner hours). Upcoming Halloween-themed events: Spooky cocktails, a Brunch Spooktacular from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Oct. 27 (costumes welcome; kids’ menu). Their Halloween Movie Marathon is from Oct. 29 to 31.