Supermajority cracks? These 10 districts could prompt a Florida House power shift

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Can Democrats crack a Republican supermajority in the Florida House?

It’s a goal the caucus must pull off or risk two more years in the Tallahassee wilderness. Officials at the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee (FHDCC) feel confident they can net the five needed seats to give Democrats some legislative relevance after November. 

“We’ve run the program we wanted to run,” said FHDCC Executive Director Drew Shannon. “We feel good about the candidates and we feel good about our chances.”

But the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee (FHRCC) believes they can mobilize voters and protect GOP incumbents. Moreover, they feel more Democrats may be as vulnerable as anyone in the majority. 

“House campaigns, our incumbents and candidates have put in the work every day — and we believe that our mission to advance our vision of Florida as a beacon of freedom and prosperity is what will lead us to victory next month,” said Speaker-designate Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican.

Florida Politics spoke with analysts and consultants from both sides of the aisle about where they deployed resources, where voters seem eager for change and which incumbents appear especially weak. L2 Data voter registration information also revealed a little about where each party had made gains. From there, we ranked the 10 House districts most likely to flip from one party control to another on Nov. 5.

1. HD 106: Fabián Basabe (R, incumbent) vs. Joe Saunders (D)

There’s been so much noise around Basabe since he flipped HD 106 by a razor-thin margin in 2022 — from fights with other pols to investigations of battery and sexual harassment that the House dismissed for lacking evidence — that it’s easy to overlook his legislative inefficacy.

To date, he’s successfully sponsored just one bill requiring better water provisions in labor pools. That many of the self-professed moderate Republican’s barely budging other proposals resembled things a Democrat would file didn’t matter; he voted in lockstep with his GOP colleagues on several “red meat” measures, including ones to further regulate LGBTQ instruction in schools and undo post-Parkland gun restrictions.

Saunders, a former Orlando Representative, has run a steady, strategic campaign in the coastal Miami-Dade district that voted for Joe Biden by a 10-point margin four years ago. Without having to say it, he’s offered voters a stark alternative: stoicism instead of histrionics and a progressive platform arguably more reflective of the district’s inclinations.

He has also outraised the incumbent without having to tap his own bank account while enjoying an added advantage of not having to get by a Primary opponent. Basabe handily won his Primary, but the fact that 38% of Republicans voted against him in August bolstered predictions of his ouster Nov. 5.

Also running is Saunders’ aunt, Mo Saunders Scott, a North Florida resident who mounted something of spite campaign against her nephew. She has no business running, and no chance of winning.

As of Aug. 20, there were 32,654 Democrats, 27,805 Republicans and 40,229 no-party and third-party voters in HD 106, according to the most recently available state voter data.

Basabe won two years ago by a 241-vote margin. Since then, L2 data shows the district has turned slightly redder, this year adding 1,852 Republican voters compared to 1,049 Democrats.

2. HD 45: Carolina Amesty (R, incumbent) vs. Leonard Spencer (D)

​​Even before her arrest on forgery charges, Amesty seemed a ripe target for Democrats. The Windermere Republican won her seat by 6 percentage points in 2022, but HD 45 voters broke for Biden by almost that margin two years prior. 

Moreover, she effectively represents Disney but never represented the Mouse in the House. She stood by Gov. Ron DeSantis at the peak of his Disney wars, siding with the state leader against her district’s top employer. Now she’s running against Leonard, a former Disney executive who headed diversity initiatives for that Fortune 500 company and others. House Republicans hammered Leonard for his diversity, equity and inclusion advocacy, but blotted out the Disney brand when republishing his social media posts in mailers.

Problems truly stepped up for Amesty when a notary scandal resulted in a grand indictment on four felony charges. She maintains her innocence, but a trial won’t unfold until after the election. She has a $52,000 to $31,000 cash advantage on Leonard, but her signs aren’t papering the district like they were two years ago. Moreover, big TV buys in Central Florida by the FHRCC seem focused on protecting every seat but hers.

HD 45 had 41,771 Republican voters, 36,873 Democratic voters and 40,250 no-party and third-party voters Aug. 20. Republicans have aggressively tried to build that advantage here this year, adding more than 2,000 voters to the rolls when the Democrats added just under 1,600, according to L2 data.

3. HD 37: Susan Plasencia (R, incumbent) vs. Nate Douglas (D)

One of the biggest upsets in 2022 came when Orlando Republican Plasencia unseated three-term Democratic Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, taking 52% of the vote. But the blue team has come back with a vengeance.

Douglas, a Democrat, hopes to turn Plasencia out of the University of Central Florida-based seat, criticizing her votes to tear down university diversity departments and stripping courses from curricula. A gay man, Douglas also hit Plasencia for voting to expand the “Parental Rights in Education” law, which critics dubbed “Don’t Say Gay.” That’s a statute that her brother, moderate Republican ex-Rep. Rene Plasencia, voted against. 

Douglas now enjoys a 2-to-1 cash advantage of $158,000 to her $78,000. Democrats feel good in a district where voters broke for Biden over Trump 55% to 43% in 2020 and had 33,512 Democratic voters, 32,716 Republican voters and 33,760 independent voters Aug. 20. L2 Data shows that through the end of August, Republicans registered 106 more voters than Democrats, but the bulk of growth this year has been among no-party voters, a set that grew more than members of either party in HD 37.

4. HD 47: Paula Stark (R, incumbent) vs. Maria Revelles (D)

Even many Republicans were a little surprised in 2022 when Stark edged out Democrat Anthony Nieves in a district where voters favored Biden in 2020 56%-43%. The St. Cloud Republican won her seat with less than 51%, but Democrats don’t think she can do that again.

This time around, Revelles, Founding Director of Chispa with Florida Conservation Voters and director of Vamos 4 Puerto Rico in Florida, carries the Democratic banner. Meanwhile, Democrats can now slam Stark for dual spending scandals involving her official expense account, which the Republican-led House suspended, and from her political committee’s war chest.

Even after that, she has a $38,000 to $27,000 cash advantage over Revelles, but state Democrats have offered far more help to Revelles than Republicans gave directly to Stark.

By this year’s Primary, HD 47 had 38,719 Democratic voters, 27,468 Republican voters and 38,541 third- and no-party voters. Republicans feel good about gains in recent years in Osceola County, and that’s reflected in the GOP adding more than 1,200 new voters to rolls this year, when Democrats added less than 1,000, L2 Data shows. But no-party voters also increased this calendar year by about 1,200 voters.

5. HD 35: Tom Keen (D, incumbent) vs. Erika Booth (R)

Less than a year after flipping a House seat in a Special Election, Keen appears to be the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election to the Legislature. He once again faces Booth, a Republican Osceola County School Board member, so both have effectively campaigned for the seat all year.

Keen, between his campaign account and committee, controls around $50,000 in cash on hand, while Booth has a more robust $82,000 at her disposal. And while Democrats feel good about clawing back seats lost in a Special Election, the numbers make HD 35 more difficult territory for the party than many seats held by Republicans right now.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats on voter rolls, albeit by less than 350. But the bulk of that advantage, according to L2 data, comes from registrations this year, when nearly 300 more Republicans were added to the voter rolls than Democrats. At the same time, Biden won the district in 2020 52% to 47%.

6. HD 38: David Smith (R, incumbent) vs. Sarah Henry (D)

Redistricting last election cycle forced Rep. Smith, a Winter Springs Republican, into a new House seat Biden won with more than 53% of the vote. That wasn’t too much problem in 2022, when Republicans statewide overperformed and beat Democrat Henry 52%-48%.

But the results emboldened Henry, who overperformed Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist. Smith’s vote for a six-week abortion ban further fueled the Emily’s List-backed Democrat, who has painted Smith’s record as out of touch with moderate Seminole County.

Still, he’s a three-term incumbent on the brink of his greatest level of power in the House. He also has raised more than any other Republican House candidate, and last reporting period had almost $234,000 cash on hand to Henry’s less than $16,000.

Democrats outnumber Republicans 43,530 to 41,759 in HD 38, where there were 42,478 no-party or third-party voters by the most count. But Republicans picked up about 1,014 voters this year, according to L2 Data, about 200 more voters than Democrats netted.

7. HD 91: Peggy Gossett-Seidman (R, incumbent) vs. Jay Shooster (D)

Gossett-Seidman, a media pro-turned-politician, accomplished a lot in her freshman term. She cleared previously sealed grand jury testimony on Jeffrey Epstein for public disclosure, fixed a DMV glitch that switched voter registrations, improved education provisions for military members and passed bipartisan legislation expressing Florida’s solidarity with Israel after Oct. 7.

She also scored millions in appropriations for HD 91, which spans southern Palm Beach County.

So why is she at risk of losing? Money, messaging and Donald Trump’s relative unpopularity in the district.

Shooster, a lawyer, raised nearly $800,000 through early October and spent more than twice what Gossett-Seidman raised altogether to make her a one-term Representative.

He has criticized her vote for permitless carry and comments supporting Florida’s previous 15-week abortion ban, which included no rape or incest exceptions. Her camp has accused him of misleading messaging, noting that she voted against the state’s current six-week ban, and for drawing his campaign funding from mostly out-of-state donors with deep pockets but little connection to the Sunshine State.

Trump lost HD 91 in 2020 by 4.5 points. By the most recent voter count, there were 39,705 Republicans, 36,683 Democrats and 36,822 independents in the district. This year, through the end of August, the district added about two Republican voters for every Democrat it gained.

8. HD 60: Lindsay Cross (D, incumbent) vs. Ed Montanari (R)

Among the few success stories for Democrats in 2022, Cross won an open House seat in St. Petersburg over Republican Audrey Henson with a solid 54% of the vote. But this year, she faces a much tougher challenger in St. Petersburg City Council member Ed Montanari.

But Cross has consistently outperformed her Republican opponent in fundraising, closing the last reporting period with almost $150,000 to his $140,000, a modest margin but with the Democrat on top nonetheless.

The district voted comfortably for Biden in 2020, with 55% backing the Democrat and under 44% supporting Trump. Cross also enjoys the power of incumbency in this bout. But Pinellas has shifted a little Republican. The biggest unknown factor may be the impacts of two hurricanes that flooded the region, making turnout critical for both sides.

The state’s Aug. 20 voter rolls for HD 60 showed 40,242 registered Democrats, 37,191 Republicans and 33,434 independents. Republicans have married that gap this year, adding more than 1,400 voters this calendar, while Democrats added about 1,040 voters in the same time.

9. HD 113: Vicki Lopez (R, incumbent) vs. Jackie Gross-Kellogg (D)

Lopez was an incredibly effective policymaker in her first term, passing well over half her bills, including signature items like the Live Local Act and My Safe Florida Condominium Pilot Program.

She tackled the thankless task of fixing Florida’s relatively new condo safety law, which still needs more work, while showing backbone in voting against her party’s six-week abortion ban and permitless carry law.

She’d be a shoo-in in a more dependably Republican district. But HD 113, which covers Key Biscayne and parts of Coral Gables and Miami, isn’t one. It went to Biden by 11.5 points in 2020 and to DeSantis by 5.5 points during 2022’s red wave.

Fortunately for Lopez, her challenger is underfunded and has seen insufficient party support. Gross-Kellogg raised a fraction of what Lopez has while being largely ignored until recently by the Florida Democratic Party. One prominent local Democrat, Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, endorsed Lopez.

But Lopez seems worried. She has spent tons on ads calling Gross-Kellogg a “radical” and mailers targeting Democrats in the district that depict her, the GOP candidate, as a “Blue Dog Progressive.”

Lopez is still a favorite to win, but this is one to watch. The district’s voter composition is tight: 25,440 Democrats, 25,221 Republicans and 33,093 no-party or third-party voters. That’s after adding 1,554 GOP voters and 1,047 Democratic voters so far this year.

10. HD 93: Katherine Waldron (D, incumbent) vs. Anne Gerwig (R)

Under a Republican supermajority, being able to say you passed the most bills of any freshman Democrat is quite a feather in the cap.

But Waldron faces a more formidable challenger this year than she did in 2022, when she bested a far less robustly funded GOP foe by barely more than 1 percentage point.

Her opponent now is Gerwig, the immediate past Mayor of Wellington, who has been competitive in fundraising, messaging and organizational endorsements.

HD 93 covers a landlocked swath of Palm Beach County, including all of Wellington and Greenacres. Its voters sided with Biden by 11 points in 2020 and with DeSantis by 4 points two years later — a notable, if not as sizable, a swing as other entries on this list.

But Waldron’s narrow margin of victory in 2022, combined with Gerwig’s relative popularity as the top local official in the district’s central municipality, suggests a flip could happen there next month.

The district had 40,579 Democrats, 33,888 Republicans and 34,379 third- or no-party voters as of Aug. 20.

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Jacob Ogles and Jesse Scheckner contributed to this report.