Rick Scott holds edge over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but still sits just under 50%

Rick Scott Debbie Mucarsel-Powell SBS AP
The Democrat holds a lead among those who already voted, but that should change by Nov. 5.

A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds a lead over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. But consistent with other surveys, the Republican continues to draw less support in Florida than the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

A St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics shows about 49% of voters will support Scott, a Naples Republican, while less than 46% of voters plan to back Mucarsel-Powell, a former Miami Congresswoman. That puts his lead within the poll’s 2.8% margin of error.

Nearly 6% of voters remain undecided, and the Democrat would need to win the bulk of those over to surpass Scott in support.

But of note, voters who already cast their ballots have given her a head start on that effort. Pollsters surveyed a total of 1,227 likely general election voters in Florida from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25. About half of those polled had already cast ballots by mail or through in-person early voting.

Among those who already voted, 51% backed Mucarsel-Powell and less than 47% supported Scott. But importantly, recent election cycles in Florida have seen Democrats far more likely to take advantage of vote-by-mail methods, with Republicans more likely to cast ballots on election day. Republicans are outperforming Democrats right now in early voting.

The most significant part of the poll may be that Scott remains under a majority, unlike Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. In the presidential race, the Republican leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 50%-45% margin. As in the Senate race, the Democrat holds an edge with those casting ballots early.

Scott has consistently polled behind Trump in polls, but also has reliably topped every public survey.

Mucarsel-Powell would be Florida’s first Latina U.S. Senator, but Scott holds a lead among Hispanic voters of 50% to 41%.

On the other hand, Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott among women by a 48% to 46% margin. That’s notably a better performance than Harris, who loses the female vote in Florida to Trump.

Independents in the poll break nearly even between Mucarsel-Powell and Scott.

StPetePolls 2024 State GEN October25 U74PS6 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


One comment

  • forsaken

    October 28, 2024 at 9:13 am

    I essentially make about $9,000-$13,000 every month on the web. It’s sufficient to serenely supplant my old employments pay, particularly considering I just work around 10-13 hours every week from home. I was stunned how simple it was after I attempted it duplicate underneath web…..

    Begin here>>>>>>>>> Payathome9.Com

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


#FlaPol

Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, William March, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Jesse Scheckner, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704