Rick Scott holds edge over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but still sits just under 50%

A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds a lead over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. But consistent with other surveys, the Republican continues to draw less support in Florida than the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

A St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics shows about 49% of voters will support Scott, a Naples Republican, while less than 46% of voters plan to back Mucarsel-Powell, a former Miami Congresswoman. That puts his lead within the poll’s 2.8% margin of error.

Nearly 6% of voters remain undecided, and the Democrat would need to win the bulk of those over to surpass Scott in support.

But of note, voters who already cast their ballots have given her a head start on that effort. Pollsters surveyed a total of 1,227 likely general election voters in Florida from Oct. 23 through Oct. 25. About half of those polled had already cast ballots by mail or through in-person early voting.

Among those who already voted, 51% backed Mucarsel-Powell and less than 47% supported Scott. But importantly, recent election cycles in Florida have seen Democrats far more likely to take advantage of vote-by-mail methods, with Republicans more likely to cast ballots on election day. Republicans are outperforming Democrats right now in early voting.

The most significant part of the poll may be that Scott remains under a majority, unlike Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. In the presidential race, the Republican leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 50%-45% margin. As in the Senate race, the Democrat holds an edge with those casting ballots early.

Scott has consistently polled behind Trump in polls, but also has reliably topped every public survey.

Mucarsel-Powell would be Florida’s first Latina U.S. Senator, but Scott holds a lead among Hispanic voters of 50% to 41%.

On the other hand, Mucarsel-Powell leads Scott among women by a 48% to 46% margin. That’s notably a better performance than Harris, who loses the female vote in Florida to Trump.

Independents in the poll break nearly even between Mucarsel-Powell and Scott.

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