A.G. Gancarski
Assuming hundreds of thousands of Republicans aren’t crossing party lines to vote Democratic, Florida’s early voting returns bode well for the electoral fortunes of Donald Trump and Rick Scott.
According to the Secretary of State’s Office, the GOP is dominating voter participation thus far in the early in-person vote, while holding its own well enough in the mail ballot chase.
More than 5 million people have voted already, so this is not a small sample size.
Of the 2,925,439 people who voted early in person as of Monday’s close of business, 1,523,153 are Republicans, with 790,744 Democrats, 65,678 people registered with other parties, and 545,864 no-party voters having shown up to make their preferences known.
Republicans are up 732,379 for in-person early votes compared to Democrats, comprising 52% of that group, while Democrats make up just 27%.
The bleeding is somewhat stanched for Democrats with the 2,216,476 mail ballots cast, but they only make up a small fraction of their margin there. While their voters cast 935,189 of the total absentee ballots, Republicans cast 795,495 of their own. Another 45,638 third party members and 440,154 no-party voters have also voted by mail.
But the big story is the partisan break: Democrats are up 139,644 overall in the mail chase, but down 592,735 when all early votes are considered.
Democrats and their advocates argue that many Republicans are crossing over to vote Democratic, but that argument isn’t supported by public polling data, which suggests that members of both parties have come home as the election neared, with partisan rhetoric and appeals working as they generally do.
The data also suggests a heavier lift than some might have thought for constitutional amendments removing state abortion restrictions and legalizing recreational pot, given Republicans are most resistant to those ideas in polling, and the aggressive full-court press by the Ron DeSantis political machine to stop them.
18 comments
I Am Speaking.
October 29, 2024 at 9:18 am
Boom.. Can probably hear that one all the way to East Tennessee. Shaking the walls of that double wide.
Billy Rotberg
October 29, 2024 at 9:37 am
Florida is a red state. If you are referring to angry Rick, I agree.
I Am Speaking.
October 29, 2024 at 10:28 am
Of course I’m referring to that senile old fool..
Cheesy Floridian
October 29, 2024 at 10:38 am
Florida is more purple I think as far as mindset goes. If people don’t get out and vote we will continue to just hand the whole state over to the GOP
YEW OWEME
October 29, 2024 at 11:04 pm
PEACHY, what’s this with the double-wide comment. you’ve mentioned it 3 or 4 times. are you that poor? i told you not to be ashamed if you are living in a trailer. my city banned mobile homes back in the 60’s. i would have to drive miles just to be near one. i guess you make these silly comments about me because i make you look bad. as i have told you before, you need to listen, not talk.
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Cheesy Floridian
October 29, 2024 at 9:28 am
We can only hope people have been paying attention the last couple of years with DeSantis leading the charge.
I Am Speaking.
October 29, 2024 at 9:31 am
His approval ratings are still very high. He would win again if he could run for a third term. You are clearly the minority here in Red Florida.
Cheesy Floridian
October 29, 2024 at 10:40 am
I am a life long Floridian and I pay attention to his actions which are horrible. I think a lot of people like to turn a blind eye to his slimy ways because he lies and they don’t want to face the truth that they actually voted for this guy. If a Democrat were to pull even half the slimy moves he has done, Disney, state parks, abusing our tax dollars, republicans would be going crazy. But because its a GOP governor doing it, its ok to turn the blind eye. No it’s not
I Am Speaking
October 29, 2024 at 10:47 am
I get it you don’t like him personally. I get comments all the time from people around the country that praise our Governor and wish they had someone like him running their state. The facts are he is very popular here and I offer up the beat down he delivered to your candidate in 2022.
Cheesy Floridian
October 29, 2024 at 11:10 am
Charlie Crist was a weak candidate for a number of reasons. Ron DeSantis had over a $100million dollars to use for his reelection, he was riding high on his popular covid policies when the state was open and the rest of the country was still closed down. We had a 15 week abortion ban in place and he did not say he would sign a 6 week one but if anyone had been paying attention we all knew he would if given the chance. He has hid public records, he has used our tax dollars for personal use and for a lot of court battles and pretty much lined a lot of powerful lawyers with our money. It was an off election year and the turn out from registered democrats compared to republicans was horrible. I believe a lot of people stayed home and just didn’t vote because they didn’t like Charlie or felt that it was pointless given how popular DeSantis was or both.But I feel that if people really paid attention to all the little and big ways he has shaped Florida these past couple of years they wouldn’t be so excited about him.
I Am Speaking
October 29, 2024 at 11:39 am
You can have the last word Cheesy. You continue to come up with excuses why your guy lost to a wildly popular incumbent governor. Crist was your party’s nominee. You probably thought he would beat DeSantis just like you think Miucarsel-Powell and Kammy will win in Florida. Laughable. You have the floor. Flame away.
White Spiteful Devil Trump
October 29, 2024 at 4:10 pm
Desantis is worthless POS , spend 160 millions lose to criminal Trump
YEW OWEME
October 29, 2024 at 11:06 pm
desantis is horrible, who are you kidding
Nobody is Listening
October 29, 2024 at 12:27 pm
51% Approval in an article here. You love him, we know. But 51% isnt exactly “wildy popular” Ed.
FloridaMan
October 30, 2024 at 5:41 pm
“I AM SPEAKING” are you really spiking the football after Meatball Ron beat Charlie Crist? You do realize Charlie Crist was the weakest candidate on the Democratic ticket for Governor of Florida in Florida’s history. This is not the flex you think it is. Ron DeSanctimonious was exposed as a socially awkward fraud and empty suit that calls everything he doesn’t like “woke” in the 2024 presidential primary. The more people get to know Ron DeSantis, the more people hate Ron DeSantis. Ron is a vindictive little bully that can’t perform outside of his fake news conferences in Florida and is not equipped socially or mentally for prime time. Ron spent more than any other candidate in the primary to achieve 3rd place. Pathetic and weak.
Grant Gerke
October 29, 2024 at 10:52 am
There is this poll (Trump winning, see FLA Politics link) but those in the poll that have voted show Harris up by one.
FLORIDA: Poll indicates that Kamala Harris leads amongst voters who have already voted. (This despite 500,000 (now 600k) more Republicans having voted so far.)
Florida St. Pete poll:
– Trump 50-45
– Scott 49-46
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/703816-donald-trump-leads-kamala-harris-in-florida-but-not-among-those-whose-ballots-are-already-cast/
NOTE: If Harris really is ahead by 1% amongst those who have already voted, despite Republicans having an 11-percent Ballot Edge in the Early Vote, this is earthquake-level news for Florida!
White Spiteful Devil Trump
October 29, 2024 at 4:07 pm
Florida is a banana Republic, you will find yourself will be at the mercy of migrant,Billy the Russian