A.G. Gancarski
Kamala Harris and Democrats have surged ahead of Donald Trump in at least one forecast market on the strength of a Des Moines Register poll showing the Vice President up three points in Iowa and up 20 points with women.
The Trump campaign is rejecting the narrative though, saying the “outlier poll” compares unfavorably to one from Emerson College, which reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.
“To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8 recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their survey.”
“In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls. The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+,” the Trump camp adds.
Even as the Republicans rail, the poll has moved one key prediction market.
At this writing, PredictIt shows a Harris “Yes” share, indicating that she is the winner of the presidential election, at 58 cents. That’s up from 50 cents before the poll dropped.
Harris the “47th U.S. President” is an even stronger favorite, at 57 cents. That’s up 7 cents from before the poll
Polymarket, again at this writing, is better for Trump. His Yes shares are just over 55 cents, while Harris’ are 44 cents.
Expect volatility to continue as the shock poll reverberates with the sharks in the market.
14 comments
Earl PITTS AMERICAN
November 2, 2024 at 8:05 pm
Good evening America,
It’s crueal and unususal punishment for the leftist media to continue making “Dook 4 Brains Leftys think that there is a chance for Kamalla to win.
What the leftist media should be doing is setting up safe spaces and support/recovery groups for everyone they have lied to
Thank you America,
This message has been approved by Earl PITTS AMERICAN
Joel
November 3, 2024 at 4:41 am
MAGAt in Fantasyland
Fraud Felon Liar Con Sex Abuser Putin’s puppet Trump has zero chance of winning the election.
Hung Will
November 2, 2024 at 9:47 pm
This is stupid. An absolute joke. Just as dumb as someone claiming Trump will win Minnesota. Hopefully there will be a follow up article on this poll’s validity in four days.
Frankie M.
November 2, 2024 at 10:31 pm
Go gatas & their ivy league QB transfer
Frankie M.
November 2, 2024 at 10:33 pm
What happened to the only poll that matters is on election day? This election ain’t over til Donald J Jameson Trump declared himself the victor and puts out a decree that says it’s over!
the Truth
November 2, 2024 at 11:17 pm
All President Trump needs is Ga, Nc, and PA, and he wins,,, and he will, bank on it
More Truth
November 3, 2024 at 9:31 am
And if he doesn’t he’ll say he did anyway and YOU will believe it.
Can you guys leave the Capitol building alone this time?
MH/Duuuval
November 3, 2024 at 9:43 am
Amen!
I Am Garbage
November 3, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Just imagine the looting, destruction of property, and arson the Demos will do if Trump wins. The Demo machine has had lots of practice at Portland, DC, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Baltimore, and on and on and on.
Joel
November 3, 2024 at 4:47 am
The IOWA Poll (Demoines Register) has bee uncannily accurate in EVERY election in the past 12 elections.
Fraud Racist Fascist Trump will lose Iowa, will lose the national popular vote by over 10 million and will get crushed in the electoral college.
Congratulations Madam President Harris!
If You Listen You Can Hear the Cowbells
November 3, 2024 at 9:28 am
If Harris beats the Stable Genius who always tells everyone how smart he is in Iowa, then it’s a blow out.
What the poll is really saying is that women have had enough of white male tampering with their rights and are coming out to protect what’s left.
Leonard
November 3, 2024 at 7:25 am
The mainstream media is doing this country a huge disservice by continuing to spin this election. Trump will win Iowa by at least 10 points and everyone knows it. Real Clear Politics just switched New Hampshire from leaning D to a toss up. Based on the averages of the polls, the trend lines, and the record R turnout in early voting (and MANY of the early voters are newly registered) Trump will win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. Trump is also likely to win Pennsylvania and is trending in Michigan and Wisconsin. Even more shocking..Trump is very likely to win the popular vote. The press is trying to prevent Ds from staying home by spinning a false narrative that Harris is winning…she isn’t….and she won’t.
Now I Know What's Going to Happen
November 3, 2024 at 9:24 am
Thanks Leonard, now I dont have to watch tv no more. You’ve answered all my questions. He may win but the day he gets a majority of the popular vote pigs will fly.
cassandra was right
November 4, 2024 at 11:06 am
LOL! Ask Ron about J. Ann Selzer!
Iowa women are voting for Harris by a margin of over 20 points! 2 to 1 for 65+!
Totally unexpected — by men that is!!! End white-male minority rule! Take the Sam Alito political power challenge!
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
HARRIS!
YES on 4!