Peter Schorsch
It’s been said that expectations are the root of all heartache.
If that’s true, we’re about to witness quite a lot of sorrow this week.
No matter what results unfold Tuesday, millions of Floridians — let’s call it roughly half — will feel some degree of disappointment or despair.
But according to a new Sachs Media statewide survey of 700 Florida voters, fielded Nov. 1-3, nearly that portion will also feel some surprise or shock.
An astonishing 9 in 10 Florida voters said they believe their preferred candidate – Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – will win the U.S. Electoral College and, therefore, the presidency. This confidence is expressed by an overwhelming 97% of Trump voters and a substantial majority (84%) of Harris voters.
Four years ago, Sachs Media asked Florida voters this same question immediately before the 2020 showdown between Trump and Joe Biden.
The results were similar: 96% of Trump voters and 88% of Biden voters thought their candidate would prevail.
However, a far greater shift emerged when Sachs asked voters a similar question about which candidate would win Florida’s popular vote.
Four years ago, 7 in 10 Biden voters thought their candidate would carry Florida, while today, just half (52%) of Harris voters believe she will capture the Sunshine State’s 30 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Trump-voting Floridians have maintained nearly unanimous (98%) confidence that Florida will remain “red” – a prediction validated by most polls to date.
For practical purposes, the nationwide popular vote may matter the least – but even here, Sachs found high confidence among voters dedicated to each candidate.
Four years ago, 97% of Biden and 73% of Trump voters were sure their candidate would tally more total votes across the country than their opponent. Today, 94% of Harris and 89% of Trump voters express this belief.
“Typically, our polls ask people what they hope to see happen in an election, but we focused here instead on what people believe actually will happen,” said Karen Cyphers, Ph.D., who leads Sachs Media’s research practice. “The fact that nearly everyone expects to be satisfied with the outcome means we can expect to be faced with a different flavor of mass disappointment regardless of the result.”
What happens when vast groups experience collective shock at a result they never expected? For some, it may be denial; for others, anger.
Nevertheless, for most, before (ideally) acceptance sets in, the grief will be genuine. And pronounced.
Friedrich Nietzsche wrote, “Hope is the worst of evils, for it prolongs the torments of man.”
So, I can’t end this by expressing genuine hope for an elixir that will soften the blow that inevitably lies ahead for so many in a few days’ time.
But perhaps this can serve as a reminder for us all to manage our individual expectations as we divide into two nearly equal crowds of victory and defeat.
