This student-led PAC’s voter-mobilization effort in SD 3 is reporting some eye-catching numbers

Voter-registration at FSU. Florida Future Leaders. Image via Florida Future Leaders.

Florida Future Leaders, a student-led PAC that launched this year to mobilize voters in key state legislative districts, has been working for months to flip the seat representing Senate District 3 blue.

On the eve of Election Day, after crossing the $1 million mark in fundraising, it’s reporting some striking numbers.

Citing data from the Democrat-run NGP VAN database, the group reports that Democratic turnout among voters aged 18-23 is nearly 6 percentage points higher in SD 3 than statewide (48.1% to 42.4%).

The divide is even wider among independents. Voters aged 18-23 in SD 3 without party affiliation are turning out at a rate 7 points higher than their statewide counterparts (37.3% to 30.4%).

Participation among Republican SD 3 voters in the same age range is up as well, albeit with a third of the increase that Democrats are seeing (46.4% to 44.6% statewide).

The 18-23 demographic is the only demographic in SD 3 where Democrats are outpacing Republicans in turnout.

Promotional campaigns that Florida Future Leaders employed — including digital ads and distribution of branded condoms, rolling papers and $75,000 worth of free Plan B pills to highlight the 2024 ballot’s cannabis and abortion amendments — produced other encouraging numbers for the group.

Among 18-23-year-olds who have voted in SD 3, 60% are women. That’s 4 points higher than women’s share in that age range statewide.

Women statewide in that demographic are turning out at a 38.3% clip. In SD 3, it’s 6.1 points higher (44.4%). And for all under-30 voters, turnout is 1.2 percentage points higher than statewide (36.4% to 35.2%).

Senate Democratic Leader-designate Jason Pizzo told Florida Politics last week that the youth vote could play heavily into who wins SD 3 on Tuesday. He donated $20,000 to Florida Future Leaders in March, joining more than 22,000 others who gave to the group through Oct. 31.

“I think it’s very close,” Pizzo said. “What I’m very encouraged to see are 18- to 25-year-olds voting at a much higher clip than they were in the last couple elections.”

Jayden D’Onofrio, Chair of Florida Future Leaders, said he expects the race to be “incredibly close.”

“That is thanks to the incredible turnout we’re seeing,” he said. “Since the beginning, we believed the youth vote would be critical to SD 3, which is proving to be right. From the multiple record-breaking days of turnout at Florida State University to the Florida A&M University turnout numbers being on pace with 2020 numbers, youth voters are making their voices heard.”

Florida Future Leaders came together in January as a collaboration between Florida College Democrats and Florida High School Democrats. The goal: to harness the power of the youth vote to turn back a rising red tide in Florida, where Republicans now enjoy a more than 1 million-voter advantage.

In the 2022 Midterms, Florida had the ninth-worst participation rate among voters 18-29 of all U.S. states, according to Tufts University.

By July, the group had identified three legislative districts to target for flips: SD 3, where Tallahassee Republican Sen. Corey Simon faces Democratic civil rights lawyer Daryl Parks; House District 37, where former Orange County Soil and Water Commissioner Nate Douglas, a Democrat, is taking on Republican Rep. Susan Plasencia; and House District 91, where Democratic lawyer Jay Shooster hopes to supplant Republican Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman.

“No matter what the outcome of this election is, we have showcased something very important,” D’Onofrio said. “Youth can be organized and turned out. It just simply starts with dedicating resources to it and letting youth lead youth.”

SD 3 spans Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Suwannee and Taylor counties.