Jacob Ogles
For years, Florida’s I-4 corridor stood out as one of America’s great bellwether regions.
And even as the state takes a decisive rightward shift as of late, Central Florida seemed defiantly blue.
That may be changing.
Osceola County voters on Tuesday evening dashed any hopes the most optimistic Democrats in Florida held that this would be a salvageable night in the Sunshine State. While Joe Biden had carried the heavily Hispanic County by 14 percentage points in 2020, Donald Trump narrowly won the county on Tuesday night.
The President-elect’s margin of victory was only around 2,500 votes over Democrat Kamala Harris, but the impact seemed heavier than that.
The results didn’t have to be fully tabulated for Matt Isbell, a longtime Democratic data consultant, to know the bottom had fallen out.
“I remember watching returns at 7:15 and the Osceola vote came in; the early vote was Harris +3, which I knew would be the best and it would get redder,” Isbell said. “It was a ‘oh no’ moment because these are Puerto Ricans voters. And it’s not like it’s Cuban voters in Miami-Dade. That was supposed to be a good demo for Harris.
“My instant worry was if it would be a nationwide issue. Which it was. The swing in Osceola foretold the swings with Hispanic voters — including Puerto Rican voters — across places like Pennsylvania.”
Republicans saw equal reason to celebrate the big Osceola flip.
“I tie it in with Miami-Dade County,” said Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power. “Hispanics really broke our way and let us win those two and pull Orange right a bit.”
Losses in Osceola served not only as a harbinger of Trump’s landslide victory nationwide but produced significant results down-ballot as well. Democratic hopes of cracking a Republican supermajority disintegrated.
Republican Erika Booth flipped House District 35, a seat Democrats won in a January Special Election and saw as a blueprint for November.
Rep. Paula Stark, a St. Cloud Republican who narrowly won her seat in a red wave in 2022, won re-election by a larger margin in a seat Democrats felt certain they could win back.
Even a Senate District 25 seat that Kristen Arrington kept in the Democratic column couldn’t be called until late in the evening as Republican Jose Martinez won Osceola County; Arrington made up the roughly 900-vote loss by winning in reliably blue Orange County by more than 7,000 votes.
The shift rattled Democrats, but Republicans saw a long-term strategy of expanding support among Hispanic voters paying off at last.
“The Republican success we saw is because we ensured we had highly qualified candidates who were focused on the things Floridians truly care about – affordability being at the forefront,” said House Speaker-Designate Daniel Perez, a Cuban notably came up in the reliably Republican community in South Florida.
He gave credit to Booth, who in 2022 won an Osceola County School Board seat, for running a strong campaign that resonated with voters. But he also sees the entire Republican Party growing more diverse, which portends well in majority-Hispanic communities like Osceola County.
“Our Republican conference – aside from being highly qualified – is also deep, broad and diverse,” he said. “It is reflective of who Florida voters are, and the victories we saw all over the state, not only in Miami-Dade and Osceola, clearly show that our candidates were in their communities talking about what voters actually care about. At the end of the day, it’s simple: we ran better candidates with a message that resonated and that delivered us this dominant victory.”
The 2020 Census found just over 56% of residents in Osceola County claim Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. But political scientists warn it’s a mistake, especially in Florida, to lump Hispanics into a single voting bloc.
Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida Professor Emeritus, discussed that at a presentation to Florida TaxWatch members days before the election. She noted the largest Hispanic group of voters in Florida claims Cuban ancestry, and famously leans Republican and has impacted South Florida politics consistent with that. The second largest demographic, Puerto Ricans, leans Democrat and is more concentrated in Central Florida.
But increasingly, Florida’s Hispanic communities see people with roots in South American nations which, like Cuba, had economies rocked when socialist governments took control.
“A couple of election seasons ago, Republicans figured out they can build a coalition of Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Colombians, etc., through the label of socialism,” MacManus said, “and it’s been hard for Florida Democrats to bust through that.”
Steven Wells, chair of the Osceola County Democratic Party, said that could be seen in full effect in election returns. Since Tuesday evening, he looked further at exactly which areas delivered for Republicans. He noted some of the strongest turnout that helped Trump, along with Stark and Booth, came in neighborhoods dominated by Venezuelan Argentine and even Brazilian areas (of note, conservative Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro moved to Kissimmee after an election loss in his home country).
“Hispanics are not Hispanics,” Wells said. “There are a number of different communities with different values and certain things— the socialist message does play. That has affected us as a party both locally and statewide. And we have got to get into those spheres, talk about economics and maybe show them what we can do. We need an economic message that speaks to them and can bring them forward.”
But in Osceola County, officials stress there’s more at work than just Hispanic voters breaking Republican. And it wasn’t all bad news for Democrats there on Tuesday. Every Democrat holding county office won re-election and Democrats held all the House seats it won in 2022. Even as Arrington’s Senate race proved surprisingly close, her husband, Osceola County Commissioner Brandon Arrington, easily won re-election, as did Supervisor of Elections Mary Jane Arrington.
U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, despite being targeted the only Florida incumbent targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee, won by a wider margin this year than in 2022. The Kissimmee Democrat said it was too soon to write Osceola Democrats off.
“Proud to join Osceola Democrats in winning ALL countywide elected seats, and most county and city commission seats this November. We appreciate the election wins for Senator-Elect Arrington and Representative-Elect (Jose) Alvarez too. We suffered a few tough losses, and have work to do at the top of the ticket next time,” Soto said.
“We Hispanics are swing voters focused on the economy, and other kitchen table issues. We won by over 12% points, including nearly 5% above the top of the ticket in Osceola, by focusing on these issues, getting our message out and running a strong campaign. Anyone declaring some permanent shift in our vote doesn’t understand our community, our history and overlooks numerous successful campaigns this election.”
Almost 55% of voters supported a marijuana amendment and more than 57% backed one on restoring abortion rights, mirroring statewide results. Amendments require 60% support to pass. But a majority of voters in the county backed both those measures, making Democrats think their message was heard on some level.
“It’s perplexing to me that voters would choose Booth and vote for Amendment 3 and 4. Scratching my head,” said defeated Rep. Tom Keen, the Democrat who beat Booth in House District 35 in January, just to lose to her 10 months later. He sees Republicans appealing to emotion rather than policy.
“I also don’t discount the negative mailers accusing me of working with China (a disgusting and vile hit piece) as having some impact. Republicans want to turn out angry voters and it’s their playbook.”
Republicans, meanwhile, hope the Osceola results reflect a shift in American voter priorities, and that a realignment apparently underway produced long-term benefits for the party in Central Florida.
“It follows national trends and how powerful the Trump campaign message resonated with Latinos and Hispanics,” said Republican political consultant Anthony Pedicini, a co-founder of SimWins. “I also think Speaker-designate Perez deployed historic effort to hold the super majority. Both Osceola and Palm Beach are moving to the right.”
Wells sees ground Democrats ceded back in 2020 during the pandemic. That year, Democrats largely froze ground game operations, believing many health-minded voters would avoid large gatherings and be reluctant to shake hands. But as Gov. Ron DeSantis’ anti-lockdown rhetoric attracted conservatives to the state, Republicans continued all traditional campaigning and event organizing.
Democrats have yet to claw back lost ground, Wells believes; he’s grown frustrated with members even of his own executive committee who think candidates can prove as effective by simply leaving literature at voters’ doors as they would by engaging them in conversations in their homes.
“I’m trying to convert us from remote-focused leadership, to get out and talk to everyday voters about their situation and helping them,” Wells said.
