Key manufacturing indicators show October slowdown in First Coast

Angie Moorefield unfolds material to begin sewing a disposable gown at Burlington Medical in (Jonathon Gruenke/The Virginian-Pilot via AP)

First Coast manufacturing contracted within several key metrics in October, according to a new report published by researchers at the University of North Florida (UNF) Coggin College of Business.

The Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) conducted by UNF found a downturn among many industrial producers in Northeast Florida last month. “The index reflects a mixed economic environment where softened demand and cautious spending contribute to a downturn in new orders, backlogs, and export orders, much like the national trend,” UNF researchers concluded.

Manufacturing output, a key indicator for Jacksonville area manufacturers, saw a notable dip, falling to an index of 44 in October, down from 51 in September. UNF College of Business Interim Dean Albert Loh said in the report that production was slightly hobbled in October, accounting for the fall in manufacturing output.

“Since the index is below 50, it suggests that a greater percentage of businesses surveyed reported a decrease in production than those that experienced growth. With output down, companies may adjust their strategies, reduce staffing levels, or scale back on expansion plans, ultimately affecting the region’s economic vitality,” Loh said in the report.

Backlogs of work, meaning orders on deck waiting to be fulfilled, saw the sharpest contraction among First Coast manufacturers in October. That index fell from 50 in September to 43 in October. Clearly demand for production dropped off last month, Loh said.

“A declining backlog of work typically indicates a slowdown in demand, as companies can meet current orders without accumulating additional work,” Loh said. “This trend reflects broader national economic conditions, where reduced new orders and lower production levels have not been enough to maintain existing backlogs.”

New orders, inventory and new export orders all saw decreases in October as well. But those index declines were modest last month in the Northeast Florida region.

Output pricing, however, remained steady in the region. Loh said that’s an encouraging sign, especially when it comes to inflation.

“The stability in Jacksonville’s output prices index at 50 in October aligns with broader indicators that inflation pressures may be moderating. When output prices stabilize, it often reflects a balance in cost pressures across the supply chain, suggesting that businesses are not feeling compelled to raise prices to offset increased costs,” Loh said in the report.