Jacksonville Bold for 11.13.24: You want fries with that?

Patrons of a Clay County McDonald’s got to see their Congressman behind the counter the other day, with Aaron Bean following in the footsteps of President-elect Donald Trump.

“I had the opportunity to suit up and work a shift at McDonald’s in Clay County. I cooked food, bagged hash browns (never touched the human hand), and even worked the drive-thru window,” the Fernandina Beach Republican told constituents Sunday.

Bean, who has worked to bring change to Washington, also brought change to some of his CD 4 constituents in this role.

He didn’t go in without coaching, either.

“Before my shift started, I sat down with owner and operator Will Garcia and several employees to learn more about challenges, ideas, and opportunities related to the food and beverage industry.”

Waltz out, Diamond in

With U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz headed to the Donald Trump administration as a National Security Adviser, a scramble has begun to fill his congressional seat.

Among the names linked to a potential run is a current member of the Jacksonville City Council.

Sources familiar with Republican Rory Diamond’s thinking tell Florida Politics that Diamond, representing the Jacksonville beaches, is exploring a candidacy. He has been linked with a run for Congress for some time now, and Waltz’s exit potentially provides that opportunity.

Diamond is a Judge Advocate General (JAG) Officer with the Florida National Guard and the U.S. Army. He previously was the Chief Executive Officer of K9s For Warriors. In 2019, he was selected as a member of the Maverick PAC‘s Future 40, a designation former CD 6 Congressman and current Gov. Ron DeSantis earned before running for the same seat in 2012.

Diamond has been among the most outspoken conservatives on the Jacksonville City Council since he took office in 2019. He was the sole vote against the current city budget from Mayor Donna Deegan, a Democrat elected in 2023.

The CD 6 seat last opened up in 2018, when DeSantis ran for Governor, setting off a spirited Primary competition that left Waltz as the last person standing on the right. The former Green Beret faced a formidable opponent in the General Election, former Ambassador Nancy Soderberg. Still, with Trump’s endorsement in the stretch run, Waltz prevailed and has not faced a tough re-election contest since.

Diamond or any other candidate would likely have to emerge from a competitive Primary against a deep bench of potential opponents.

These could include former House Speaker Paul Renner of Palm Coast, current state Rep. Webster Barnaby of Deltona, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, and current state Rep. Chase Tramont of Port Orange.

Diamond may be the best connected to President-elect Trump out of the group, though, as he attended the victory party in West Palm Beach last week.

Black celebration

This November was a watershed election for Duval County Republicans. Statewide candidates Donald Trump and Rick Scott won the county, while unexpected down-ballot wins also happened.

Dean Black, the outgoing three-term local Party Chair, says none was an accident. Superior organization, long-term planning, and rigorous voter outreach drove the result and spotlighted a path forward for the resurgent Republican Party.

“Ever since I became Chairman, the single thing I have focused on is voter registration,” Black said. “When I became Chair at the end of 2018 and going into 2019, as we were getting operations going, the Democrats achieved a lead in voter registration of over 40,000. Today it’s down to 11,000, and that’s the lowest plurality Democrat lead in history. And the size of the army you bring to the field matters.”

The army drives turnout, and Black notes that despite a slight registration edge for Democrats, Republicans win the battle of “pure raw voter turnout.” He expects that to continue, aided by aggressive fundraising; Black notes he’s raised “millions and millions of dollars” to that end.

He noted that this plays out in nominally nonpartisan races, such as conservative Reggie Blount’s win in a Duval County School Board race over Hank Rogers, who the Duval Democrats backed.

Black also thinks Democrat Deegan, who won the Jacksonville Mayor’s race in 2023, is a “lame duck Mayor” and suggests Republicans have learned from what happened to fracture their turnout last year.

“What we had at the top of the ticket was really the apocalypse. And it’s a circumstance that’s not likely to repeat itself either because it’s odd to have two candidates each able to raise so many millions of dollars,” Black said of Republican candidates LeAnna Cumber and Daniel Davis.

“Normally, there does become a clearer front-runner. As the election progresses, it becomes clear who’s going to be able to build the large, well-developed coalition that could possibly carry to victory. And because of the way the voter registration is split between Democrats and Republicans (in this) true battleground county, usually, you will have an emergent Republican leader and one who is a Democrat, and that’ll be what you get on the runoff.”

Purple reign

Jacksonville’s Democratic Mayor bet on Vice President Kamala Harris to win last week’s election, but it went the other way.

And now Deegan faces GOP control in Washington, just as in Tallahassee, leading to strategic recalibrations.

During an appearance on WJCT’s “First Coast Connect,” the Mayor described herself as a “Democrat with the mind of an independent.” She stressed that Jacksonville is a “purple city” and that she has worked well with U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, U.S. Reps. Bean and John Rutherford, and other Republicans to achieve positive outcomes for Jacksonville.

“This is a deeply divided electorate in Jacksonville,” Deegan notes.

“I don’t think anybody ever got to 50% in this election. So, I think that the perspective that I take is one that is very pragmatic. We all have to work together. Unity is the only way forward, and while we most certainly must speak our truth, at the end of the day, we have to work together to move the city forward. And I don’t see how my job in that regard changes at all.”

The Mayor acknowledged “sharp differences on kitchen table issues,” saying that public polling was “very much aligned with what Vice President Harris was trying to move forward,” but suggested Jacksonville’s connections with the White House would carry the day.

“I wouldn’t think that somebody like (incoming Chief of Staff) Susie Wiles would want Jacksonville to suffer. This is an important area to her,” Deegan said. “But at the end of the day, I wouldn’t think that our representatives wouldn’t want to bring money home to Jacksonville.”

When she was selected, the Mayor “sent (Wiles) a message of congratulation,” describing her as “an incredibly talented political operative.”

Deegan made news last month during a trip to London when she said Trump sought “concentration camp-like situations” to deal with immigrants in the country illegally. Clearly, she is looking for a reset after Tuesday’s election.

Manufacturing October slump

First Coast manufacturing contracted within several critical metrics in October, according to a new report published by researchers at the University of North Florida (UNF) Coggin College of Business.

The Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) conducted by UNF found a downturn among many industrial producers in Northeast Florida last month. “The index reflects a mixed economic environment where softened demand and cautious spending contribute to a downturn in new orders, backlogs, and export orders, much like the national trend,” UNF researchers concluded.

Manufacturing output, a key indicator for Jacksonville area manufacturers, saw a notable dip, falling to an index of 44 in October, down from 51 in September. UNF College of Business Interim Dean Albert Loh said in the report that production was slightly hobbled in October, accounting for the fall in manufacturing output.

“Since the index is below 50, it suggests that a greater percentage of businesses surveyed reported a decrease in production than those that experienced growth. With output down, companies may adjust their strategies, reduce staffing levels, or scale back on expansion plans, ultimately affecting the region’s economic vitality,” Loh said in the report.

Output pricing, however, remained steady in the region. Loh said that’s an encouraging sign, especially regarding inflation.

“The stability in Jacksonville’s output prices index at 50 in October aligns with broader indicators that inflation pressures may be moderating. When output prices stabilize, it often reflects a balance in cost pressures across the supply chain, suggesting that businesses are not feeling compelled to raise prices to offset increased costs,” Loh said in the report.

Five-year plan?

Across the biggest city in Northeast Florida, the unhoused are increasingly prominent in public parks, rights of way and commercial sectors.

And help for homeowners and entrepreneurs dealing with the downstream consequences won’t be immediately forthcoming, with Jacksonville leaders betting on a long-term strategy.

Deegan said that under a state law passed earlier this year, the city can be sued at the beginning of next year for not having a program in place to address the problem.

To that end, she says Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department (JFRD) teams “are in training and are starting to reach out to people to try to connect them with services, telling them about the new state law, that they cannot stay where they are, and that they need to avail themselves of various services.”

“But what we’ve started right now with those JFRD teams, they are in training in order to make sure that they can reach out to people, make sure we help them to secure their belongings, make sure that we get them to a place where they can receive the services they need. And we’re continuing to work on a five-year plan that will help us to in a comprehensive way address that issue.”

The Mayor said arresting people without homes is a “last resort.” The Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office does not want to do it either.

State law explicitly expects localities such as Jacksonville to have a plan in place that will take less than five years to effectuate. HB 1365 bans counties and municipalities from permitting public sleeping or camping on public property without explicit permission, compelling these localities to round up the homeless and put them somewhere.

The legislation contemplates encampments that ban drugs and alcohol and includes rehabilitative social services to enforce the prohibition against rough sleeping. The camps could only be in one place for 365 consecutive days.

Vision thing

In yet more Deegan news, the administration is rolling out an ambitious ‘Vision Zero Traffic Plan’ to end traffic fatalities. The city has long been a locus of pedestrian and bicyclist dangers, with nearly 600 crashes involving one or the other last year.

“The way we plan is that we understand humans are going to make mistakes, so you can’t completely get rid of all crashes,” City of Jacksonville Bicycle and Pedestrian Coordinator Matt Fall told First Coast News. “But, when crashes do occur, you want them to happen at a reasonable speed so that the person might be bruised or break something, but at least they’re going home at the end of the day. If it’s a high-speed crash, it might turn into a fatality and that’s what we don’t want.”

The plan will be rolled out early next year, with the goal of what Fall calls a “demonstration project,” such as a crosswalk improvement that could be a model for more changes.

Motivated seller

JEA is preparing to sell its old headquarters downtown, which has been rendered superfluous by a new customer care center close to the Duval County Courthouse.

The Daily Record reports that the tower will be on the market early next year for those looking for something in a prime location steps from City Hall.

“We intend to go out with an RFP (request for proposal) for these buildings in probably early to mid-January,” said Jordan Pope, JEA’s director of administrative services.

Residential renovation could be one plan for the space, which will need substantial work. JEA justified its new digs by saying the old spot needed too much rehab to bring it up to standard.

To that end, the RFP won’t be “prescriptive” in terms of use.

The move comes amid high interest rates and questions about whether residential and commercial real estate is overvalued.

Ultimately, the market will decide what is best.

Meanwhile, that’s not the only JEA news. David Bauerlein reports that board member Zachary Faison is leaving the board, and Ricky Erixton will replace Raynetta Curry Marshall as COO.

First Coast home sales fall

October home sales for the six-county First Coast region showed yet another decrease. Single-family home prices are increasing, and the glut of houses on the market is piling up.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) issued its monthly home sales report, showing a prolonged sluggish housing market. In October, 1,512 single-family homes closed sales. That’s a 3.9% drop from September’s figure of 1,526 homes sold and a bigger 7.2% decline in homes sold in October 2023, when 1,360 houses were sold in Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, Clay, Baker, and Putnam counties.

While the number of single-family dwellings being sold dropped for October, the number of homes for sale on the market continues to trek upward. The active inventory of homes on the First Coast market increased in October by 10.7% to 7,839, compared to the September figure of 7,082. Year over year, the inventory of houses for sale jumped a whopping 73.9% compared to October 2023, when 4,507 homes were on the market. The inventory in the Northeast Florida market hasn’t been below 5,000 homes for sale since March.

Nassau County had the most dramatic housing data swing in October. Home sales dropped to 83 closings in October, a 17% decline from September and a brutal 26.5% decrease from October 2023. Meanwhile, the median cost of homes in Nassau increased to $485,000, a 7.8% uptick from September and an 18.6% increase from October 2023.

Duval County, home to Jacksonville and the First Coast’s most populous county, saw 770 homes sold in October, a 1.4% decrease compared to September and a 4.1% drop from October 2023. Median sales prices increased to $337,995 in Duval, a 1% uptick from September and a 6.3% hike from October 20233.

St. Johns County, one of the fastest-growing counties in the United States, also saw a drop in home sales to 383 in October, down by 10.3% compared to September and down by 7% from October 2023. Median home prices saw a slight uptick to $555,000, a 1.7% increase from September and a 2.8% increase from October 2023.

West Side Amscot

One of Florida’s fastest-growing financial services companies is First Coast bound.

Amscot has opened a new location in Jacksonville at 7051 Collins Road on the city’s West Side in the Argyle Forest area. The Jacksonville location is yet another addition to the Tampa-headquartered financial advisory business.

Amscot already has more than 230 locations in Florida and employs more than 1,500 people in the state. The company has a decades-long history in the Sunshine State. Amscot was founded in 1989 by Ian MacKechnie and now serves an estimated 7 million customers.

“As someone who came to Florida seeking opportunity and built Amscot to help families access the financial services they need, I know the importance of safe, responsible options,” said MacKechnie, the CEO of Amscot. “With our new Jacksonville location, we’re excited to expand access to carefully regulated, consumer-friendly financial products that help Floridians manage life’s unexpected expenses and build a more secure financial future.”

Amscot, which bills itself as “The Money Superstore,” has been steadily expanding across the state, and the Jacksonville location is just the latest. Amscot recently added new locations in Gainesville, Fort Myers and Port St. Lucia.

Get your lit

It’s that time of the year again.

The Friends of the Jacksonville Library will commence its yearly liquidation sale of old assets. This will allow bibliophiles and others to supplement their collections with many out-of-print items at low, low prices.

Check out the wares at 3435 University Blvd. N. The best values will be found at the Big Bag Sale on Thursday starting at 4, where members will get a BOGO deal on a $12 paper grocery bag with materials.

Non-members can show up Friday from 4 to 8 p.m. and Saturday from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., when they can get a $15 bag on a B2G1 deal — members are BOGO.

Yes, they will supply the bags.

Trevor’s future

Not that there was any doubt before the Jaguars’ most recent loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but the Jaguars’ season is not going anywhere.

So, what will happen with Trevor Lawrence?

Lawrence missed Sunday’s 12-7 loss with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. With the Jaguars traveling to face the Detroit Lions this week and a bye week the following Sunday, the Jaguars should strongly consider keeping Lawrence on the sidelines and allowing more time for him to heal.

When Shad Khan invested $275 million in Lawrence with the largest contract in franchise history, it was a move for the long haul. Since this season is over and the Jaguars continue to deal with injuries on the offensive line and wide receiver, there is a chance the best move for Lawrence would be to sit down for the rest of the season.

Here’s why:

Lawrence dealt with at least four injuries last season and was banged up even before sustaining the shoulder injury this season.

It’s vital for your franchise quarterback (if Lawrence is going to be that, as his contract would suggest) a chance to be as healthy as possible.

It would give Mac Jones time to prepare as the starter to see if the former Bolles quarterback should be retained as the backup next season. Jones is set to become a free agent after the season. In most cases, teams will want a veteran quarterback to serve as the backup to an established star. Giving Jones the chance to start the season’s final seven games will provide value to Jones to show the Jaguars or other teams if he should be considered a backup or a starter. If he performs well, the Jaguars can opt to try to re-sign him, or Jones will get the chance to sign elsewhere. If he performs poorly, the Jaguars will know they must seek a new backup in the offseason.

When the Jaguars struggled in the 2020 season with Lawrence waiting to be the first overall pick of the 2021 draft, Khan signed off on the Jaguars sitting down Gardner Minshew and started Jake Luton and Mike Glennon for nearly half the season. That was, in large part, a means to an end. The Jaguars wanted the top pick. It worked.

So, there is a precedent for Khan to take a longer view of the season.

Additionally, in 2020, Khan decided that head coach Doug Marrone and general manager Dave Caldwell would have to “clean up their mess” before making coaching and general manager changes. The same could happen this season with Doug Pederson. In 2020, Khan opted to retain Trent Baalke, who was on staff then.

Of course, then the right hires have to be made. In 2021, Khan hired Urban Meyer, who produced one of NFL history’s worst head coaching tenures.

It seems prudent to hit the reset button, but only Khan knows what his plan will be as the season winds down to its merciful conclusion in January.