What Donald Trump’s decision to wade into spending fight tells us about the next 4 years

Image via AP.

After days of threats and demands, Donald Trump had little to show for it once lawmakers passed a budget deal in the early hours of Saturday, narrowly averting a pre-Christmas government shutdown.

The president-elect successfully pushed House Republicans to jettison some spending, but he failed to achieve his central goal of raising the debt limit. It demonstrated that despite his decisive election victory and frequent promises of retribution, many members of his party were still willing to defy him openly.

Trump’s decision to inject himself into the budget debate a month before his inauguration also showed that he remains more adept at blowing up deals than making them, and it foreshadowed that his second term will likely be marked by the same infighting, chaos and brinkmanship that characterized his first.

“Stay tuned. Buckle up. Strap in,” said Rep. Steve Womack, a Republican from Arkansas, a senior appropriator.

A glance at Trump’s agenda shows a cascade of opportunities for similar showdowns in the years to come. He wants to extend the tax cuts he signed into law seven years ago, slash the size of the government, increase tariffs on imports, and crack down on illegal immigrants. Many of those efforts will need congressional support.

For many of Trump’s supporters, disruption could be its own goal. Thirty-seven percent of those who voted for him this year said they wanted “complete and total upheaval,” according to AP VoteCast, a broad survey of more than 120,000 voters. An additional 56% said they wanted “substantial change.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican, said the budget battle was “a valuable lesson in how to get our act together.”

“There are no layups, and it gets more complicated,” he said.

The trouble started when top lawmakers released a copy of the bill, known as a continuing resolution, that was required to keep the federal government functioning until March. It wasn’t the president-elect but Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a Trump confidant, who first began whipping up opposition to the legislation on social media by calling it excessive spending.

Trump eventually waded into the fight. He ordered Republicans to cancel the bipartisan deal they had made with Democrats and demanded they increase the debt limit—the cap on how much the government can borrow—to prevent that thorny issue from reoccurring while he was in charge of the government.

He ratcheted up the pressure even as his demands shifted. First, he wanted to eliminate the debt limit altogether. Then, he tried to suspend it until 2027. Finally, he floated an extension until 2029.

If there was a shutdown, Democratic President Joe Biden would take the blame, Trump insisted.

“All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country and vote “YES” for this Bill, TONIGHT!” Trump wrote Thursday before a vote on a version of the bill that included a higher debt limit.

Instead, 38 Republicans voted no. It was a stunning brush-off to Trump, whose power over his party has sometimes seemed near-absolute.

“Without this, we should never make a deal,” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media site.

Trump said there should be a government shutdown if he didn’t get what he wanted. He also said members of his own party would face primary challenges if they refused to go along, saying, “Republican obstructionists have to be done away with.” He singled out Rep. Chip Roy of Texas by name and with insults.

Ultimately, lawmakers left out that the debt ceiling would increase, and a final deal passed early Saturday.

Musk and other Trump allies tried to frame it as a win because the final legislation was significantly slimmed down and omitted unpopular items such as a pay raise for members of Congress. Charlie Kirk, the prominent conservative activist, wrote on X that Trump “is already running Congress before he takes office!”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, said he had been in “constant contact” with Trump, who, he added, was “certainly happy about this outcome.”

If Trump agreed, he didn’t say so himself.

After days of frequent social media messages, Trump again went silent on Friday. He did not offer a reaction to the final vote or issue any statements. Instead, he went golfing at his Florida resort.

Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump, said the President-elect helped prevent an original deal that was “full of Democratic pork and pay raises for members of Congress.”

“In January, President Trump and DOGE will continue this important mission to cut the waste out of Washington, one bill at a time,” she said. DOGE refers to the Department of Government Efficiency, an advisory panel led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

The circus-like atmosphere of the funding fight was reminiscent of Trump’s first term. Back then, one budget standoff led to a government shutdown when Trump demanded money for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. After 35 days — the most prolonged shutdown in history — he agreed to a deal without the money he wanted.

It was a political low point for Trump, and 60% of Americans blamed him for the shutdown, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll at the time.

Trump didn’t stop trying to bend Republicans to his will then. He’s certainly not going to do so now.

He is increasing the pressure on his own party over his Cabinet picks, pushing reluctant Republican senators to support some of his most controversial choices, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defense secretary.

Next year’s spending debates seem certain to test Trump’s influence in the House further. Many conservatives view the rapid growth of the federal debt as an existential threat to the country that must be addressed. However, some Republicans fear a voter backlash if steep cuts are made to federal programs on which Americans rely.

Concerns about deficit spending could intensify if Trump pushes for the expensive tax cuts he promised during the campaign, such as eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security, and overtime pay.

He also wants to extend the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017, which expire next year. He has called for further lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but only for companies that produce in the United States.

Trump has said he will compensate for revenue dips by imposing aggressive new tariffs, which economists warn will raise consumer prices.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican, said reducing spending would likely continue to be a gulf between Trump and House Republicans.

“That’s never been really a campaign promise of Trump, but it’s a big priority for House Republicans,” he said.

There was no sense that the animosity was dying down on Saturday. Some Republicans faulted the House leadership for not securing Trump’s “blessing” on the original deal. Democrats cast Trump as second fiddle to Musk.

While Trump stayed quiet, Biden announced that he signed the budget legislation.

“This agreement represents a compromise, which means neither side got everything it wanted,” he said. “But it rejects the accelerated pathway to a tax cut for billionaires that Republicans sought, and it ensures the government can continue to operate at full capacity.”

___

Republished with permission from The Associated Press.