Byron Donalds holds massive lead in poll on gubernatorial contenders

A new poll shows that U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has a massive advantage over other prospective candidates for Florida Governor.

Victory Insights, a firm with an office in Naples, shows more than 31% of likely Florida Republican Primary voters prefer Donalds when pitted against three other contenders. Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez comes in a distant second with 4% support. Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson polls at 3%. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez shows with just 1%. Pollsters report a 3.5% margin of error.

The polling lands as Donalds, a Naples Republican, takes steps to build a likely gubernatorial campaign, including bringing on several prominent consultants who previously worked with President Donald Trump.

“In a hypothetical Republican primary election with Donalds, Simpson, Nuñez, and Suarez, Donalds is the clear leader,” senior pollster Ben Galbraith writes in a polling report.

Notably, the same pollsters last April also found Donalds as the favorite against other prominent contenders, many of whom no longer appear as likely to run. Then, Donalds led with 21% compared to former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz at 13%, former U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz at 5%, Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis at 3% and Simpson at 2%.

The pollster notes that the field looks significantly different less than a year later.

Gaetz resigned and took a cable news job after an embarrassing House Ethics Committee report. Waltz joined the White House as Trump’s National Security Adviser. Patronis just won a Republican Primary for Gaetz’s seat in Congress and is a frontrunner to win that seat in April.

The poll was conducted on Jan. 26 and 27 before the Florida Legislature passed legislation that could make Simpson the face of enforcement of Trump’s immigration agenda in Florida. But for the moment, Simpson’s public notoriety has remained little changed from last year.

Of course, the poll found that the vast majority of voters, more than 60%, were undecided. That leaves plenty of room for change in public opinion.

“Though Donalds is the clear frontrunner today, much crazier things have happened than an early frontrunner squandering his head start,” the pollster notes.

As for now, the poll shows Donalds’ strongest support from those voters most loyal to Trump. Of self-described MAGA Republicans, 38% support Donalds, compared to 4$ for Nuñez and 2% each for Simpson and Suarez. Among “constitutional conservatives,” about 35% back Donalds compared to 4% who like Nuñez and 3% who favor Simpson. But Donalds still boasts stronger support than competitors, even among those who identify as “moderate” or “traditional” Republicans.

Pollsters also ran a hypothetical head-to-head between Donalds and Simpson and found Donalds leading 34% to Simpson’s 5%.

The only group in which Simpson leads Donalds is among Republicans who “hate” Trump. In that small group, 12% support Simpson, and just 6% prefer Donalds.

Even among voters who hate Gov. Ron DeSantis, who said he would veto the bill giving Simpson immigration authority, 15% prefer Donalds for Governor, while 13% want Simpson.