Republican voters now outnumber Democrats in Hillsborough County

Republicans have now surpassed Democrats in Hillsborough County, according to updated voter registration numbers on the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections office website Thursday.

The edge is narrow — a difference of just 156 voters — but it’s there, and it’s been trending in that direction for quite some time. 

As of Thursday morning, the Hillsborough SOE registered 301,725 registered Democrats in the county. The Republican voter tally came in the same morning at 301,881. 

The SOE’s homepage displays that data in a snapshot. About two weeks ago, the SOE posted its most recent district demographic analysis for December, which showed Democrats still holding an edge, with about 2,300 more registered voters than Republicans. 

Florida GOP Chair Evan Power touted the news Thursday, posting to X that there was “big news this morning” and noting that “Hillsborough County has flipped Red!” He added: “Duval and Miami-Dade, we are coming for you next.” 

As of Jan. 2, Democrats in Miami-Dade County still outnumbered Republicans by about 26,000 voters. As of Thursday, Democrats in Duval County — Jacksonville — had nearly 12,000 more voters than Republicans. 

Hillsborough’s latest voter registration data points to statewide trends. In late 2021, Republicans surpassed Democrats in voter registration. As of the end of 2024, Republicans had a more than 1 million voter registration advantage over Democrats statewide, with 5.6 million voters compared to just under 4.5 for Democrats. In 2023, Republicans carried about an 800,000 voter advantage, and in 2022, they had a nearly 400,000 voter advantage. 

Hillsborough County had only just gone blue in 2016 when Democrat Pat Kemp won a race for County Commission and flipped it and when the county rejected former President Donald Trump in his first presidential campaign. By 2020, Democrats had expanded their majority on the County Commission to 5-2. But then, in 2022, they erased all those gains after unseating two Democrats. In 2024, the GOP further brought down the hammer, growing its majority to 5-2.

Given those County Commission trends, Hillsborough voters again rejected Trump in 2020, but the county went for him in 2024.

The voter registration advantage flip comes after Hillsborough Democrats saw another defeat, with state Rep. Susan Valdés switching party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.