Drew Dixon
Florida TaxWatch’s new analysis of economic growth in the Sunshine State over the next half-decade shows steady increases.
However, there are areas of concern.
TaxWatch, primarily a government spending watchdog group, produces quarterly economic forecasts projecting economic development in the state, along with analysis provided by the consulting firm Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group). The third quarter forecast of 2024, published this month, shows steady growth through 2030.
“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion,” said Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic Calabro. “Despite this impressive growth, Florida slipped from the fifteenth largest economy in the world to the sixteenth, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”
The economic gross domestic product (GDP) forecast stretches from 2024 through 2030, with several key indicators under consideration. The TaxWatch forecast for the next five years shows GDP growth dropping from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. That rate remains about the same for most of the next five years, though the projection is for a drop to 3% in 2030.
“The difference between the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and the real GDP is becoming smaller. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to decrease in the coming years,” the forecast said.
According to the projection, the number of new jobs created in the state will definitely go up each year. But the pace of job growth could waffle. The study found there were 178,600 new jobs created in 2024. That figure will drop to about 121,900 in 2025. The forecast shows a steady decline in that figure, falling to 77,900 in Florida in 2027. But that fall-off will see a turnaround in 2028 with 80,900 new jobs created and will escalate to 128,700 created in Florida in 2030.
In terms of the number of people in Florida, there will also be an increase in population. The TaxWatch forecast projects the 2030 population will rise to about 24.8 million people, up by about 1.45 million people from the current population.
The one solid increase that is undisputed, at least among the TaxWatch analysts, is that the tourism industry will remain strong in Florida. One of Florida’s prominent keystones and economic drivers will continue to be visitors coming to the state for a break.
“Florida’s tourism is projected to increase steadily through 2028, and Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue its strong growth through 2030, with more visitors expected each year. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages. Due to the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes,” the TaxWatch forecast concluded.
