Florida TaxWatch: State consumers will see higher prices as a result of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs

The cost of shipping a container of goods has risen by 80% since November. Image via Bloomberg.

A new analysis by Florida TaxWatch on the impact of tariffs on the Sunshine State economy concludes there could be a substantial hit to many industries and consumers.

The Potential Impacts of New Tariffs on Florida’s Economy report issued by the government watchdog group raises serious concerns about President Donald Trump’s plans for increasing trade tariffs. The report concludes that Florida consumers will not be able to avoid rising costs when tariffs are implemented.

“As the cost of production goes up for almost all commodities, the burden of this increase will fall on Florida consumers. Higher construction costs can increase the price of a typical house built by Florida developers by $10,000. An increase in the cost of production in the automobile industry will lead to an increase in the price of a car, by at least $6,000-$7,000,” said the report’s summary.

The TaxWatch report emphasizes that Florida’s economy is heavily reliant on international trade.

“Florida is the 10th largest importer in the U.S., with a total import value of $117 billion in 2024. The largest portion of imports are made in the vehicle, electronic, and industrial industries. In January 2025, Florida exported goods worth $6.1 billion and imported goods worth around $10 billion,” a TaxWatch news release said.

The trickle-down effect of tariffs will not be limited to major industries. Floridians will see higher prices for food going on the dinner table as well, according to TaxWatch analysts.

“Florida ranks fifth among the U.S. in grocery costs. An average Floridian’s weekly grocery bill is expected to increase by 10 to 15 percent as a result of imposed tariffs,” the report said.

The analysis released this week coincidentally came out as Trump announced that he wants to set a 25% tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, as well as new tariff rates on a dozen other nations that would go into effect on Aug. 1.

Trump threatened to punish any of those nations if they returned a volley of retaliatory tariffs.

“If for any reason you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25% that we charge,” Trump wrote in the letters to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic Calabro said he understands Trump’s tariff philosophy is designed to “level the playing field” among nations. But Calabro said the average Floridian is going to feel the brunt of any implementation of new tariffs.

“The changing consumer sentiment indicates that Floridians are being cautious about the long-term implications of these trade policies. While some industries may see short-term gains, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain,” Calabro said in a news release.

TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said new tariffs will induce hesitancy for consumers in Florida and will likely stunt economic growth.

“The new tariffs will likely exert pressure on Florida’s economy as consumers face higher prices for some products, small businesses encounter increased operational costs, and overall economic growth slows slightly,” Kottkamp said, noting that it will take an extended period of time to assess the full impact of any new tariffs.

A University of North Florida (UNF) First Coast manufacturer’s survey published this week showed industrial producers on the First Coast are already spooked by tariffs. Nearly every sector of North Florida manufacturing showed contraction in June, the fifth straight month of manufacturing contraction in that region of the state.

“Tariffs are clearly influencing pricing and procurement decisions, contributing to rising input costs and delays in delivery,” said Albert Loh, who oversees the North Florida manufacturer’s survey and is the Interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business.

“While the data does not yet indicate a deep downturn, the combination of tariff pressures, soft demand and reduced hiring could erode local economic momentum and increase the risk of recession if conditions don’t improve in the months ahead.”

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Material from The Associated Press was used in this report. Republished with permission.