Peter Schorsch
A new poll from Fabrizio Ward, the go-to pollster for Donald Trump-aligned Republicans, is sending a clear warning to the GOP: Let enhanced premium tax credits expire, and you risk losing the House.
The survey, conducted across 28 battleground House districts nationwide, shows Republicans currently trailing on the generic ballot by 3 points among all registered voters. Among the most likely voters, that deficit balloons to 7 points.
The poll also demonstrates that a vast majority of voters in swing districts support enhanced premium tax credits and want to see Congress extend them.
Nearly 8 in 10 voters “support tax credits that make it more affordable for working families and individuals to purchase health insurance directly through (the private exchange),” according to the memo. “Support comes from more than two-thirds of Trump voters and three-quarters of swing voters, those voters that tell us they typically don’t vote a straight party ticket.”
The message is clear: The extension of enhanced premium tax credits could define the 2026 Midterms.
In Florida, more than 4.2 million residents rely on the health care marketplace to access private health insurance. Since 2021, tax credits have kept premiums low and made coverage more affordable. If Congress does not act, the tax credits will expire this year.
Florida leads the nation in enrollment, and policy analysts forecast more than 1 million Floridians are at risk of seeing their premiums skyrocket overnight. Many of these are middle-class workers, small-business owners and early retirees — people who don’t get insurance through an employer but don’t qualify for Medicaid.
If Republicans in Congress vote to extend the enhanced premium tax credits, Fabrizio Ward’s polling shows the GOP gaining a 6-point edge on the generic ballot.
“The Republican candidate that supports (extending the tax credits) would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6-points overall, and among those most motivated to vote by 4-points, completely changing the political dynamic to the Republican’s favor,” said Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward in their memo to Plymouth Union Public (PUP) Advocacy, dated July 14.
If Congress does not extend the tax credits, the polling indicates Democrats would lead by a staggering 15 points in key swing districts — a number that could flip control of the House.
“Republicans can expect a loss of support in these most competitive districts if the premium tax credit is not extended.”
In battleground states like Florida, the politics of health care are far from settled — and the costs of inaction are about to hit home.
