A.G. Gancarski
Florida’s First Lady hasn’t committed to a run for Governor, but a new poll says she’s in good shape if she decides to make that move.
A survey of Florida Republicans by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows Casey DeSantis narrowly leading U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.
DeSantis has 32% support, while the Naples Republican has 29%. That lead is inside the 3.9-percentage-point margin of error. Also worth noting: two in five Republicans haven’t heard of Donalds, a third-term Congressman, yet ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ has achieved near-universal name ID in a matter of weeks.
Other choices seem to be nonstarters, with 18% of the 797 respondents saying they don’t know who they would support. Former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz is in a distant third at 8%, and “someone else” has at 7% support. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has 2% support, while Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson has 1%.
Interestingly, those who voted in last year’s Presidential Primary break differently than those who didn’t in the DeSantis-Donalds divide.
Among those who didn’t vote in March 2024, 37% support DeSantis while 23% back Donalds. Meanwhile, among those who did participate in the Primary, the numbers flip: 37% back Donalds, while 22% back DeSantis.
Recall that by the time Florida had a Primary, Gov. Ron DeSantis had long since suspended his campaign.
But Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science, believes people who voted in that ultimately ornamental Primary may look more like August voters than those who did not.
“It’s important to note that among folks who voted in the last primary, Donalds is 15 points ahead of DeSantis, and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears,” Binder added.
DeSantis leads Donalds among women, Hispanics and Latinos, among voters in North and Central Florida, and among those under 65. Donalds leads with men, respondents aged 65 and older, and South Florida voters.
Poll respondents approve of both Donalds and Casey DeSantis, but she is both better known and more popular despite President Donald Trump backing the Congressman.
She has 57% approval against 13% disapproval, compared to Donalds’ 43% favorable rating versus 7% unfavorable. Despite the divide among Republicans based on whether they voted in the 2024 Presidential Primary, she has higher raw approval numbers with both groups.
Meanwhile, a scandal with tangential links to the First Lady doesn’t seem to be on the radar of Florida Republicans.
A full 71% of Republicans never heard of or don’t know what they think of the Hope Florida Foundation. Meanwhile, 23% approve of the nonprofit, while 6% do not.
The organization’s use of $10 million in settlement funds from Medicaid provider Centene for political advertising after they were passed through two other committees was a major talking point during the 2025 Legislative Session.
The $10 million came from Centene to Hope Florida as part of a $67 million settlement for overbilling Medicaid.
From there, two political action committees (Secure Florida’s Future and Save Our Society from Drugs) requested $5 million each from the Hope Florida Foundation.
Money to Secure Florida’s Future was earmarked explicitly for a “long-term, targeted business partner recruitment strategy and public awareness campaign.”
The funds to Save Our Society from Drugs were intended for “developing and implementing strategies that directly address the substance use crisis facing our communities.”
After securing that money, the “Keep Florida Clean” political action committee, which is chaired by current Attorney General James Uthmeier, got donations from the groups totaling $8.5 million.
One comment
Ron Ogden
July 24, 2025 at 10:02 am
You can tell it’s summertime in JAX.