No debate? New poll shows Gavin Newsom with inside track for 2028, Ron DeSantis an afterthought

DeSantis newsom
One guy looks like he could be headed to the White House. The other one, not so much.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently shot down the idea of a rematch of his Fox News debate with Gov. Ron DeSantis — and it appears with good reason.

A national Emerson College survey suggests that Newsom may not benefit from the free publicity he’d get from a second showdown on Fox News in the way “America’s Governor” would, and what DeSantis calls being a “troller” of Trump is better business than running a sequel to the 2023 spectacle.

For starters, Newsom is much better positioned to get the Democratic nomination than DeSantis is the GOP nod.

The August survey shows the Golden State Governor atop the Democratic field, drawing support from 1 in 4 respondents. No one else is even close.

The poll shows 16% back former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, 11% choose former Vice President Kamala Harris, 5% want Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and 4% each support Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

“Newsom’s support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%) an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and White (10% to 24%) voters,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

Conversely, DeSantis is a weak third place on the GOP side.

Ohio’s JD Vance has 52% support, far ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 9% and DeSantis’ 7%.

Adding insult to injury, it’s Newsom and not DeSantis who is getting a trial heat on a national General Election ballot test, and Newsom is holding his own. He’s tied 44% to 44% with Vance, closing a 3-point deficit (45% to 42%) in the July poll with a 17-point lead with younger voters.

These numbers perhaps underscore Newsom’s unwillingness to go up against DeSantis again, and suggest that the Californian no longer sees the Sunshine State kingpin as a peer.

“Honestly, I kind of forgot Ron DeSantis is still Governor,” Newsom said this week, denoting “sub-zero interest” in debating “Sean Hannity and Ron DeSantis” again.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


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