Poll shows most Florida voters, including plurality of Republicans, don’t want a mid-decade redistricting

The Supreme Court seeks to weigh in on racial gerrymandering.

New polling from Common Cause suggests that it isn’t only Democrats angry about a GOP push for mid-decade redistricting.

A Noble Predictive Insights poll commissioned by the group found that 55% of Florida registered voters oppose “allowing political parties to change district boundaries mid-decade.” That includes 62% of Democrats in the state and 60% of voters without party affiliation. Only 14% of independent voters in Florida support a mid-decade redraw, and 25% of Democrats would be fine with it.

But perhaps most notable, more Republicans in the GOP-controlled state oppose redistricting now than support it. About 45% of Republicans in Florida disapprove, the poll shows, while just 36% want it to happen.

Common Cause commissioned a survey of voters nationwide and in five states where conversations are unfolding right now about redistricting: California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas. Of note, the polling showed 60% of voters nationwide oppose mid-decade redistricting, but the opposition isn’t as strong in any of the states considering the process now.

But in all five states polled, at least 55% of registered voters voiced opposition.

The national poll included responses from 2,016 voters, with pollsters reporting a 2.2-percentage-point margin of error. The state-level polling included responses from 499 Florida voters, with a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.

In Florida, House Speaker Daniel Perez just named members to a Congressional Redistricting Select Committee that intends to craft new lines for Florida’s 28 U.S. House districts in the 2026 Legislative Session. Gov. Ron DeSantis has promised that redistricting will occur, though the Florida Senate has taken no steps toward participating in such a process.

Common Cause was notably one of the plaintiffs that challenged Florida’s congressional map in federal court on grounds it was racially discriminatory, but Judges ultimately rejected that claim and upheld the map.

The latest round of polling asked not only about mid-decade redistricting but about how voters believe lines should be drawn.

The survey showed that 76% of Florida voters, and 77% nationwide, would prefer an independent commission produce the lines instead of having members of the Legislature perform that task.

The poll also showed that 66% of Florida voters support barring the drawing of lines to give a party a political advantage, language already included in the Fair Districts amendment approved by Florida voters in 2010. About 70% of voters nationwide would like Congress to institute such a rule for every state.

And 66% of voters in the state and nationwide would like to see Congress prohibit any state from redistricting mid-decade instead of the traditional process of producing new cartography after the decennial census. U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, a California Republican, said he will file such legislation this year.

The poll did find that a narrow plurality of voters support states engaging in retaliatory redistricting, with 46% approving of that and 39% opposing the tactic. That includes 53% of Democrats, and support was strongest in Democrat-controlled states including California (54% of all voters support), Illinois (51%) and New York (46%).

In Florida, 41% support retaliatory redistricting while 39% oppose it. Support was strongest among Democrats, with 43% supporting it and 42% opposing. Among Republicans, there was 41% support and 39% opposition.

Texas Democrats in the Legislature there left the state to deny a quorum to Republicans in a Special Session. Common Cause also polled Florida voters on whether they would support such a tactic here.

While 50% of voters statewide oppose such action compared to 30% who support it, it’s a different story among Democrats. A plurality, 44%, of Democratic voters approve of such a maneuver while 40% would be opposed to such a move. But of note, Republicans enjoy supermajorities in both chambers of the Florida Legislature.