Darryl PaulsonWhat if I told you that Republicans are likely to win the white vote in the 2016 presidential election by 24 percent?
If you are a Democrat, you might be a bit nervous. Don’t be. Republicans can win the white vote by that margin and still lose the election if nonwhite voters cast their ballots like they did in 2012. Many Americans do not realize that the Republicans won the white vote in 2012 by 20 percent and still lost the election.
This is the Republican election dilemma. The Republican Party is increasingly becoming the party of whites, off-whites, ivory and bone. Its political coalition can hardly compete with the growing diversity of the Democratic Party.
We can look at the “Californification of Florida Politics” to see what our political future may hold for the Sunshine State. After WWII, Republicans won nine of the next 12 presidential elections in California. In the last five presidential elections in California, Democrats have a clean sweep. What happened?
In 1994, Republican Gov. Pete Wilson pushed Proposition 187 to enhance his re-election chances. Prop 187 was a ballot initiative that limited immigrant access to state-provided education, health care and social services. Perceived to be anti-immigrant, the proposition passed.
The GOP may have won the battle, but it lost the war. Since its passage, the GOP has almost become a minority party in that state.
As recently as 2004, George W. Bush and the Republicans won 44 percent of the national Latino vote and evenly split that vote in Florida. In the most recent presidential election, Mitt Romney was able to win only 27 percent of the Latino vote. In addition, the GOP is losing the Asian vote by similar large margins and receiving only 5 to 10 percent of the black vote.
Why is the nonwhite vote becoming so important? It’s because in each election cycle the nonwhite share of the electorate is growing in size as it become more Democratic. By 2016, nonwhites will comprise 30 percent of the electorate nationally. By 2020, nonwhites will make up almost 40 percent of Florida’s population.
Republicans, looking for a ray of sunshine, often point to the declining ratings for Democrats in Congress and those of President Obama. This is true. A July 2013 CBS News poll found that 36 percent of Americans approved of the Democratic performance in Congress while 55 percent disapproved (-19 net points).
The president’s approval rating has fallen to the low 40’s while 51 percent disapprove (-10 net). As bad as the Democrats in Congress and Obama are perceived, the Republican ratings are much worse. Only 25 percent of Americans think Republicans in Congress are doing a good job and 67 percent disapprove (-42 net).
Republicans can ignore political reality, or they can seriously begin to examine why the party has fallen into disfavor and begin to fix their problems. The party of Lincoln deserves a better fate than what is happening to it today.
