Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.

Jim RosicaDecember 22, 2015

New polling shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump sweeping primaries in Florida and early-vote state New Hampshire, and tying with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in South Carolina. The pollster, though, warns the “race is still young” and “there is still much room for movement for virtually all of the candidates.” More to the point, other focus-group surveys suggest Trump “may have hit […]

Matt FlorellDecember 21, 2015

We’ve been running StPetePolls.org for more than four years, and while it has been a lot of fun to do, and we’ve had great success in accurately predicting the results of elections in Florida, a series of changes have led to our recent decision to scale back polling operations greatly. First and foremost, our polling has never […]

Bob SparksNovember 7, 2015

Political opinion polls can be useful, but they can also be dangerous in a figurative sense. Those thinking the election is over because a poll says so can be in for the shock of their lives. Polls can get it wrong in a big way. We have some recent examples. Going into Tuesday night’s statewide […]

Bob SparksNovember 5, 2015

Political opinion polls can be useful, but they can also be dangerous in a figurative sense. Those thinking the election is over because a poll says so can be in for the shock of their lives. Polls can get it wrong in a big way. We have some recent examples. Going into Tuesday night’s statewide […]

Steve VancoreJuly 27, 2015

This saltshaker test will be short on originality and long on quotes. The latest Mason-Dixon poll results of both Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senate apparently come from the same survey of, “500 registered Republican voters and 500 registered Democratic voters.” So in assessing its validity/reliability, we will offer our first quote from a recent […]

Steve VancoreJuly 24, 2015

The most recent poll from Mason-Dixon shows Jeb Bush all but lapping the current GOP field holding a strong 12-point lead over the 2nd place finisher, Marco Rubio, who scored a solid 16% in a field of 16 challengers. You read that right, 16 challengers named on a phone poll. Mason-Dixon did well to rotate those […]

Guest AuthorSeptember 21, 2014

Second in a series. Wanna sound smart? Ask your pollster, “So what’s the margin of error?” Wanna sound really smart. Don’t ask it. While there are entire courses dedicated to what are known as bell curve or parametric statistics and you can learn about smart sounding things like random distribution, confidence levels, and standard deviations […]

Guest AuthorSeptember 18, 2014

First of a Series The question came to us the other day, “Why poll just Rick Scott versus Charlie Crist?” “Why not also include the other folks on the ballot?” Good questions. Why would you poll test just the two, which many high-quality professional pollsters are still doing? After all, the logic follows, there will […]

Tag: polling

New polls show Donald Trump strong but “race still young”

The end of St Pete Polls (and polling in general) as we know it?

Bob Sparks: Polls have recently missed the mark; how about the GOP presidential field?

Bob Sparks: Polls have recently missed the mark; how about the GOP presidential field?

Salt applied to Mason-Dixon U.S. Senate poll

Salt Shaker Test: Take Mason-Dixon poll with Jeb crushing Florida with a few grains of salt

Steve Vancore: Polling 101: Margin of error — What the heck is it anyway?

Steve Vancore: A look at polling in the 2014 Florida governor’s race