Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by two percentage points in Florida, 45 percent to 43 percent, in a new Bloomberg poll released Wednesday morning.
Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 4 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2 percent. The margin is cut to one percentage point lead for Trump, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a tw0-person race.
The survey of 985 Florida registered voters was conducted from Oct. 21-24. The margin of error is at 3.2 percent.
The survey is the first in a long time that shows Trump leading in Florida, but recent polls shows the race tightening. The RealClearPolitics average in Florida as of Wednesday morning shows Clinton with a 1.6 percentage point lead.
“This race may come down to the independent vote,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Right now, they tilt for Trump. By a narrow margin, they opted for Obama over Romney in 2012.” The poll shows Trump leading Clinton amongst independents by a 43 percent to 41 percent margin.
Barack Obama won independents by three points in 2012, though he defeated Mitt Romney by less than one percentage point.
Clinton gets 51 percent of the Sunshine State’s Hispanic vote and 49 percent of those under age 35 in the two-way contest, while Trump has 51 percent of seniors and 50 percent of those without college degrees.
Trump must win Florida’s 29 electoral votes to win the presidency; Clinton does not, if you go by 2012 standards. Although Obama did take the state in 2012, Florida was only declared in his favor four days after he had already gone over the 270 electoral votes on Election Night and had officially won re-election.