Latest survey gives Rick Scott 5-point lead over Bill Nelson - Florida Politics

Latest survey gives Rick Scott 5-point lead over Bill Nelson

Republican Gov. Rick Scott is ahead by 5 percentage points in his bid to oust Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, according to a new poll from Vox Populi.

The results show Scott earning 48 percent support, with Nelson nabbing just 43 percent.

Of the 9 percent of voters who are undecided, most are leaning toward Nelson. The race becomes a 50-50 toss up if undecideds are forced to choose between the two candidates.

The survey ran Oct. 27-30 and sampled 696 “active” voters, according to Vox Populi. The margin of error was listed at 3.7 percentage points.

The poll does appear to over-sample Democrats. Among those who responded, 42 percent labeled themselves as Democrats, 36 percent as Republicans and 22 percent as independents or “other.”

That +6 advantage for Democrats over Republicans would be a tremendous outlier among midterms in the last 40 years, where Republicans have held an advantage, on average.

That could spell trouble for Nelson, who is trailing even with the sample having a strong Democratic lean.

Recent polling has shown an incredibly tight contest, though typically with Nelson holding onto a slight lead.

Both Scott and Nelson broke even in terms of favorability, according to the new poll. For Scott, 41 percent of voters rated him favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. For Nelson, 40 percent had a favorable view of him while 40 percent had an unfavorable view.

The poll also found Nelson’s vote against confirming now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh helped him more than hurt.

The results show 35 percent of voters saying his vote made it more likely they will vote for Nelson, with 28 percent saying less likely, 28 percent saying it had no impact, and 9 percent saying they were unsure.

Respondents also praised Gov. Scott’s handling of Hurricane Michael, with 46 percent saying he did a “good” job. Just 13 percent said he did a “poor” job, with 25 percent rating his performance as “fair,” and 17 percent having no opinion.

Ryan Nicol covers news out of South Florida for Florida Politics. Ryan is a native Floridian who attended undergrad at Nova Southeastern University before moving on to law school at Florida State. After graduating with a law degree he moved into the news industry, working in TV News as a writer and producer, along with some freelance writing work. If you'd like to contact him, send an email to


  1. Great news!!! A vote for Scott represents
    Cost effective & imp. healthcare
    Protects senior benefits and protections
    Vote for Americans first NOT SOCIALISM
    Border Security
    Lower taxes
    More jobs

  2. Looking at all of the polls, Democrats are absolutely being objectively over sampled. Republicans have maintained a lead in voting since it began. The polls haven’t adjusted to reflect reality.

    It doesn’t matter what people say on the phone, the Gillum voters clearly aren’t voting. Anyone who is definitely going to vote has already done so. Everyone else is a maybe. And 10 page ballots, like that in Broward, will keep alot of the maybes home.

    The maybes composed of those under 30 are almost certainly a no. They never vote, even in 2016 they didn’t vote. Even the Dems 30-ish candidate for State House District 93 didn’t vote in 2016 or 2014, and she’s only lived in FL for 6 years.

    This “blue waver,” impeach Trump, Women’s Marcher, couldn’t even be bothered to vote against Trump. The Dems respected District 93 so much that they imported a candidate, who moved there 6 months ago solely to run, who doesn’t even vote.

    This is why NPAs hate major parties. Most NPAs didn’t realize they wouldn’t have to vote for Gillum or DeSantis until they saw their sample ballots, some will take the option not to on principal, others will look up the candidates and see that Darcy Richardson is exactly the type of candidate they are looking for.

    The young NPAs are mostly angry Sanders voters, which is why Sanders is here, but his presence has put a fire under Republicans, who actually vote.

  3. Oh god help us no-8 years of tricky Ricky Scott and his hatred of the poor/teachers/ the disabled – let him fly away in his new jet…..

  4. Are we really going to send another con artist to the Senate? Republicans have already stated that they will make up the deficit caused by their massive tax cut for the wealthy and corporations by cutting Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. They are not going to save anything. They will raise the retirement age again. Republicans work for the rich and powerful and folks most of us are not welcome in their club.
    Scott is just another thief in a business suit.
    We simply cannot send Red Tide Rick to Congress.

  5. This website and this article is a joke. “Florida Politics??” Everyone knows this midterm will be referendum on Trump. Repubs are going to loose the house, and finally justice will be served in this corrupt administration.

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