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New poll puts Marco Rubio at 2nd place in New Hampshire

Marco Rubio is gaining ground in New Hampshire, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

Among likely Republican primary voters, Rubio is in second place with 17 percent, up 6 points from the Jan. 28 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. The new survey found Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field with support from 30 percent of respondents, while 15 percent picked Ted Cruz.

John Kasich leads among the governors with 10 percent, followed by Jeb Bush at 9 percent. Chris Christie is at 4 percent.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll found 11 percent of respondents said they might vote differently on primary day. That may bode well for Rubio. Much like in Iowa, Rubio and Cruz are the second-choice favorites in New Hampshire.

According to the survey, 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters said Rubio was their second choice; while 16 percent said Cruz was their second choice.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton, 58 percent to 38 percent. The results haven’t changed much since the last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which had Sanders leading Clinton 57 percent to 38 percent.

The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday.

Mitch Perry Report for 2.5.16 – “An artful smear”

Good morning from Nashua, New Hampshire.

I have to admit that my first thoughts this morning are not what happened at last night’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, but will I make it safely to Manchester this morning to see Sanders.

Folks, it’s snowing pretty hard in southern New Hampshire this morning (7:10 a.m.). I ran around in a parking lot about an hour ago to get a workout in, but the snowflakes are piling up.

This California native and Florida resident for the past 16 years has never driven in snow.

OK, enough of my angst. How about last night’s debate? Clinton took the gloves off, saying she was tired of the “attacks by insinuation and innuendo” against her integrity by Sanders, along with his questioning her credentials with the progressive community because of the financial contributions she’s received from Wall Street.

Clinton made $275,000 in some individual speeches over the past couple of years from Wall Street banks, but she called it a “very artful smear” to insinuate that meant she was beholden to those institutions.

Sanders thought that was a rather harsh assessment. MSNBC used the split screen throughout to show Bernie’s various facial expressions throughout the debate, something that will no doubt be used by the other networks for the remaining three debates scheduled.

Speaking of debates, only Jim Gilmore and Carly Fiorina won’t be at Saturday night’s GOP debate to be televised by ABC. What gives with that? Gilmore has barely registered this entire cycle, but Fiorina actually received more votes than both Chris Christie and John Kasich in Iowa.

Yet Christie and Kasich will be on the big stage tomorrow night, while Carly will be watching with the rest of us.

Meanwhile, Ben Carson will once again be absent from the campaign trail today. Although Ted Cruz has had to apologize for having his staff pass the word (based on a CNN report) that Carson was quitting the race after Iowa.

Gentle Ben is apparently still in the contest, but trust me – for all intents and purposes, he might as well be out. This is prime time, and he’s been MIA all week.

OK, wish me luck on my commute!

In other news …

Jeb Bush said there’s been too much anger in this GOP presidential race, saying, “We need someone who has a proven record, who has a servant’s heart.”

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In Keane, New Hampshire, on Thursday Chris Christie told a small crowd how he’d go about selecting Supreme Court justices – just in case he gets that opportunity.

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Will Marco Rubio‘s conflicting stances on immigration ultimately hurt his candidacy? One guy who a lot of reporters spoke to on Wednesday thinks so.

Jeb Bush sells himself as uniter in Derry town hall, 5 days before NH primary

Last spring he called himself a “joyful tortoise,” and Jeb Bush is still espousing a positivity on the campaign trail that is in large contrast to the anger being pumped up by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.

“We need a servant leader,” he said at a Derry, New Hampshire, middle school Thursday night. “We don’t need the big dog on the stage, barking out stuff, insulting people. We need someone who has a proven record, who has a servant’s heart.”

With just five days before the New Hampshire primary, every one of these town hall events are job interviews of a sort, and Bush is working hard to convince undecided voters that he’s worthy of their vote.

“The only way a conservative is going to win the presidency is to campaign with their arms wide open, with joy in their hearts and a positive message” he said, earning sustained cheers.

It was a festive crowd stuffed inside the cafeteria of the West Running Brook Middle School, with former New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg and former first lady Barbara Bush joining the candidate on stage. While the crowd seemed to appreciate much of what he had to say, a few voters told FloridaPolitics.com before the speech that they remained undecided.

Lee Ann Propencher from Manchester, New Hampshire, said she leaned toward Bush, though the only definitive statement she could make was that she was certain she wouldn’t vote for Cruz or Trump.  A registered Republican, she said she supported George H.W. Bush in 1988, but not W, saying that in 2000 she had a son going into the military and feared that any Republican would be more likely to want to go to war.

Propencher said she was looking favorably toward John Kasich, until she was turned off after she saw a negative super PAC ad that mentioned that the Ohio Governor supported a military base-closing commission that shuttered a base in New Hampshire.

“I think it’s interesting,” Derry resident Phil Smith said of the 2016 race. He is also an undecided voter, who said a lot can change in terms of momentum in the race within the next week. Smith said he voted for Jeb’s father and brother for president, but wasn’t ready to commit to a third Bush just yet.

As usual, Bush showed a fluency with the issues in his appearance. He talked extensively about drug addiction, a big problem in the Northeast in recent years.

“I think we need to look at this, first and foremost, as an illness; that it needs to be treated,” he said. “That we need to expand recovery centers so that people who struggle with addictions have a network of people that they can rely on, that can share.” Bush added that the U.S. criminal justice system “has to recognize that there has to be second chances,” remarking on the fact 50 percent of the people serving time in federal penitentiaries are in for drug crimes.

He then criticized President Barack Obama for another failure of leadership, saying that with criminal justice reform being a bipartisan issue now, he should apply his energies towards crafting legislation, instead of his clemency initiative where the Justice Department has encouraged certain nonviolent offenders to apply to have their sentences shortened under his power to give pardons.

Can Bush close the gap by Tuesday? The most recent polls show Trump crushing the competition, with Marco Rubio separating from the pack in second place.

New Chris Christie ad pounces on Rick Santorum’s stumble to define Marco Rubio

Chris Christie took a swipe at Marco Rubio in a new advertisement that features a top backer’s inability to identify one of Rubio’s accomplishments

The 60-second spot — called “It’s a Simple Question” — features clips from a “Morning Joe” segment Thursday. In the video, Rick Santorum fails to name one of Rubio’s Senate accomplishments.

“All I’m asking is a simple question,” the advertisement shows Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough saying to Santorum. “List one accomplishment Marco Rubio has achieved in four years of the United States Senate.”

Santorum is then shown responding to Scarborough with: “The bottom line is — there isn’t a whole lot of accomplishments, Joe. I just don’t think it’s a fair question.”

Christie has been taking hits at the Florida Republican for several days. In a video released by his campaign Wednesday, the New Jersey Republican said he would “challenge anyone to show me a significant accomplishment that Senator Rubio has done while he’s in the United States Senate.”

“I can’t find one and he’s been asked this by members of the press and he can’t give you one,” he said Wednesday. “He talks about the things he’s fought against. What’s he done?”

Christie is in sixth place in New Hampshire, according to recent polling averages. He trails Rubio who is in second, according to RealClearPolitics. The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday.

Chris Christie says Sam Alito would be go-to analyst for Supreme Court hires

Chris Christie has been on a verbal tear against Marco Rubio this week, but the New Jersey governor was relatively restrained when talking about the Florida senator during his 90-minute town hall meeting held in Keene, New Hampshire, Thursday morning.

Christie said he was watching “Morning Joe” earlier in the day when he saw Rick Santorum discuss why he was endorsing Rubio for president, a day after the former Pennsylvania senator dropped out of the race.

Santorum was at a loss to to mention any significant accomplishments that Rubio has achieved in his political career, other than becoming Speaker of the House in the Florida Legislature and winning his seat to the Senate in 2010.

“That’s not the basis to becoming president of the United States,” Christie said. “A winning smile and a good read of a teleprompter with a set of notes is good, but what will that do for you in a crisis? The choice is too big and too important for us to back away.”

A few months ago Christie was reportedly making his move in the Granite State, where he has essentially lived in recent months, trying to break through in the Republican presidential sweepstakes. He’s been so attached to campaigning here that he apologized to his constituents last month, after he declined an immediate return to New Jersey after the region was beset by a major snowstorm.

Christie is in serious jeopardy of his all-in New Hampshire strategy. He’s mired in sixth place in the first-in-the nation-primary, according to the Real Clear Politics average.

“Shopping time is running out. Just a few days left for your primary shopping season, so now it’s time for a choice,” he said early on, before he fielded over a dozen questions from the intimate crowd of no more than 120 people at the Keene Elks Lodge.

There was plenty of Obama-bashing, as per usual (save for John Kasich) at a GOP presidential town hall. One such criticism came after  woman asked him what he would to restore the reputation of law enforcement officers she said have been disparaged by President Obama.

“I think it is simply one of the two or three most disgraceful parts of this administration, is that every time there’s a benefit of the doubt to be given, this president never gives it to police officers,” he said. “He always takes the opposite side.”

These New Hampshire town halls are definitely unscripted. An elderly woman asked Christie whether he’d be healthy enough to be president. He gave an elaborate response about getting lap band surgery to reduce his weight three years ago. He said he did it not because of his run for the presidency, but because he wanted to be healthy enough to be able to walk his daughters down the aisle when they eventually get married.

With an aging complement of U.S. Supreme Court justices, the next president could likely select several replacements. When asked he’d look for in nominees, Christie said essentially he’d outsource the vetting process to Justice Samuel Alito, like Christie a former U.S. Attorney in New Jersey.

“I’d call my friend, Justice Alito to the White House and I’d say to him, ‘okay, who are the very best circuit court judges whose opinions you read all the time, who are just like you: quiet, smart, consistent conservatives,” he said.”Give me four or five names. I’ll interview those folks, and those are the folks I’ll pick from.”

Christie boasted he hasn’t been ambivalent in acknowledging that climate change is real and human beings are contributing to it. He criticized the recent U.N. accord on global warming, saying it lets China off the hook for the next 15 years.

Christie said New Jersey is reducing carbon emissions, boasting the state gets 53 percent of its energy portfolio from nuclear power. “Three Mile Island was a long time ago. We need to get over it,” he said dismissively of nuclear critics.

He also said the Garden State is the third largest producer of solar power in the nation, behind Arizona and California. “Bring that to a bar in Keene, tonight,” he said as the crowd laughed. He said that because solar has gone down so much in price that in recent years that the New Jersey government has reduced the tax incentives it had been offering, and that by 2020, fully 22 percent of all the energy in the state will come from solar.

On health care, Christie said he didn’t have a perfect solution, but getting rid of the Affordable Care Act would be a good start. He said he’d let states decide.

He was less decisive, however, after Vermont resident said his state had tried that with Green Mountain Care, a single-payer health care plan ultimately tabled by the current governor because of rising costs.

Christie said he didn’t think it worked out because it wasn’t operating in a system being done elsewhere in the country.

Before the speech a Keene resident named Bob (who insisted on keeping his last name out of the story) said that he has seen Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Kasich and now Christie in New Hampshire recently. He said he thought Christie once had something special, but said he had become too much like every other Republican running in the race. He left before the meeting ended, so we couldn’t get his take on what he thought of Christie’s response on climate change.

Chris Christie says Marco Rubio isn’t “qualified and ready and prepared” to be president

Marco Rubio is “simply not ready to be president of the United States.”

That’s the message GOP hopeful Chris Christie sent in a video released by his campaign Wednesday. In the video, Christie took a swipe at Rubio, comparing his legislative experience to that of President Barack Obama’s when he was elected.

“We elected a first-term United States senator seven years ago and Republicans have watched this. He has made our government a train wreck,” he said in the 3-minute video. “Why would anyone think that Sen. Rubio would be any different? Because of his experience in the United States Senate, where he’s been for five years, and two of those years he’s been running for the president of the United States?”

Christie has spent a considerable amount of time in New Hampshire. The New Jersey Republican received a key boost in November, when the New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed him.

According to averages of New Hampshire polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Christie is in sixth place, behind Rubio and the other members of the governors’ club: Jeb Bush and John Kasich. However, Rubio was confident Wednesday he would leave New Hampshire as “the top governor.”

“We have the organization of governors across this country, and I believe that when I emerge as the top governor from New Hampshire that those governors will come in line and begin to support the idea of having a governor,” he said. “They know that a first-term United States senator is not qualified and ready and prepared to be the president of the United States.”

Christie pointed to his experience in the governor’s mansion as a reason why he is better prepared for the presidency. Christie said the only thing Rubio has done in office is sponsor “an amnesty bill that he promised when he ran he never would do, and then when it got hot he ran away from it and hid and he’s been hiding ever since on that issue.”

“So the fact is, for the folks in Florida it’s going to be refreshing when I get there in March, they recognize me. They know who I am. They knew I was down there a dozen times last year for Governor Rick Scott to help his re-election,” he said. “And they will actually be refreshed to see someone, who actually is accomplishing something, offering themselves for president of the United States and not just the same speech that’s been given for the last six years.”

Carly Fiorina calls debate process “broken” after she’s shut out of Saturday night forum

With Rand Paul dropping out of the GOP presidential race, the field is winnowing out.

That doesn’t mean that the rest of the 10-person field gets to stand on one debate stage this Saturday night.

Although ABC, the debate sponsor, hasn’t yet announced the lineup, Carly Fiorina said she’s learned she won’t be invited, and she’s not pleased.

“Our debate process is broken,” the only female Republican candidate wrote to party Chairman  Reince Priebus and other members of the Republican National Committee. “Networks are making up these debate rules as they go along – not to be able to fit candidates on the stage – but arbitrarily to decide which candidates make for the best TV in their opinion. Now it is time for the RNC to act in the best interest of the Party that it represents.”

Fiorina said she will be the only candidate still in the race not invited on to the stage  at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Fiorina said it’s ridiculous that although she fared better in the Iowa caucuses than some other candidates, they’ve been invited to the debate while she has been shunned.

“To review, we beat Governors Christie and Kasich in Iowa this week when voters actually had their say. This campaign has the same number of delegates as Governors Bush and Kasich while Governor Christie has zero. We’re ahead of Dr. Carson in New Hampshire polling. We are 6th in hard dollars raised and have twice the cash on hand as either Governors Christie or Kasich. We are already on the ballot in 32 states, and there is a ground game with paid staff in 12 states.

“Yet, all of these candidates will be invited to the ABC debate. I will not.”

No word yet from the RNC on her statement.

Iowa caucuses: Tight races for both parties

Iowa kicked off voting in the 2016 presidential race Monday night, with the Republican contest shaping up as a three-way fight among Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were also locked in a tight battle as the caucuses began.

The indicators were based on interviews with voters who arrived early to caucus sites across the state, conducted by Edison Research for The Associated Press and the television networks.

At stake in Iowa was crucial early momentum in the presidential campaign, and for some candidates, the future of their White House hopes altogether.

Candidates faced an electorate deeply frustrated with Washington. While the economy has improved under President Barack Obama’s watch, the recovery has eluded many Americans. New terror threats at home and abroad have also ratcheted up national security concerns.

In Iowa, which has for decades launched the presidential nominating contest, candidates also faced an electorate that’s whiter, more rural and more evangelical than many states. But, given its prime leadoff spot in the primary season, the state gets extra attention from presidential campaigns.

Even so, Iowa has decidedly mixed results in picking eventual nominees. The past two Republican caucus winners — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — faded as the race stretched on. But Barack Obama‘s unexpected 2008 victory was instrumental in his path to the Democratic nomination, easing the anxieties of those who worried the young black senator would struggle to win white voters.

Clinton was seeking to overcome the ghosts of her loss to Obama in 2008. Her campaign spent nearly a year building a massive get-out-the-vote operation in Iowa.

Yet she faced an unexpected challenge from Sanders, the self-declared democratic socialist from Vermont. Sanders has drawn big, youthful crowds across the state and his campaign was hoping for high turnout.

“We will struggle tonight if the voter turnout is low. That’s a fact,” Sanders told volunteers and supporters in Des Moines.

Monday’s contest will offer the first hard evidence of whether Trump can turn the legion of fans drawn to his plainspoken populism into voters. He has intensified his campaign schedule during the final sprint, including a pair of rallies Monday where he predicted “a tremendous victory.”

Cruz has modeled his campaign after past Iowa winners, visiting all of the state’s 99 counties and courting influential evangelical and conservative leaders. With the state seemingly tailor-made for his brand of uncompromising conservatism, a loss to Trump would likely be viewed as a failure to meet expectations.

Seeking to tamp down expectations, Cruz said Sunday, “If you had told me a year ago that two days out from the Iowa caucuses we would be neck and neck, effectively tied for first place in the state of Iowa, I would have been thrilled.”

Cruz has spent the closing days of the Iowa campaign focused intensely on Marco Rubio, trying to ensure the Florida senator doesn’t inch into second place. Rubio is viewed by many Republicans as a more mainstream alternative to Trump and Cruz, though he’ll need to stay competitive in Iowa in order to maintain his viability.

Rubio, who previously lashed back at criticism, adopted the same reflective tone as many of his rivals on Monday, telling NBC that Cruz “has a very strong ground game.” He dismissed attacks against him as “politics as usual.”

The campaigns were anxiously keeping an eye on the weather. A snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa than the voters.

Republicans John Kasich, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush were all spending Monday night in New Hampshire — not only to get a jump on the weather but also on their competitors in a state with voters who are expected to be friendlier to more traditional GOP candidates.

Speaking in Hopkinton, New Hampshire, Christie urged voters to back a candidate they believe “symbolizes what this country stands for.”

Turnout was expected to be strong.

While both parties caucus on the same night, they do so with different rules.

Republicans vote by private ballot. The state’s 30 Republican delegates are awarded proportionally based on the vote.

Democrats form groups at caucus sites, publicly declaring their support for a candidate. If the number in any group is less than 15 percent of the total, they can either bow out or join another viable candidate’s group.

Those final numbers are awarded proportionately, based on statewide and congressional district voting, determining Iowa’s 44 delegates to the national convention.

Republished with permission of the Associated Press.

Among GOP rivals to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio has most cash

Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christie, the four Republican candidates in a showdown for their party’s traditional supporters, closed last year with about as much money in the bank combined as Ted Cruz, the conservative insurgent they hope to topple.

Then there’s Donald Trump, the celebrity businessman who has just begun to flex his billion-dollar bank account, lending his campaign $10.8 million from his personal wealth late last year.

The Republican candidates seeking to challenge Trump and Cruz at the top of the field were in varying degrees of financial distress at the end of 2015, fundraising reports filed Sunday night show, with Rubio in the best position to move forward. Together, as the calendar flipped to 2016, the foursome had $21.6 million left in the bank, while Cruz had almost $18.7 million at his disposal.

With voting beginning Monday in Iowa, and continuing next week in New Hampshire, Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie were running low on time — as well as money — in their efforts to rise. Should one or more of them continue on after New Hampshire, they’ll face a cost-intensive primary calendar that demands travel among some two dozen states and advertising in some of the country’s priciest media markets before March 15.
Of the four, Rubio, a Florida senator, led the money chase in the final three months of the year, collecting $14.2 million and ending with $10.4 million in the bank. What’s more, he was on the upswing, having more than doubled his fundraising pace from earlier in the year. In total, he collected $39.5 million in 2015.

That’s more than Bush’s annual total. And the former Florida governor’s fundraising fortunes appear to be moving in the opposite direction as Rubio’s.

He raised just $7.1 million between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, about what his haul had been in the preceding fundraising quarter. He closed the year with about $7.6 million in the bank. He had detected a cash crisis in the fall and retrenched his national plan to focus almost exclusively on New Hampshire.

Yet in that state, where voters weigh in Feb. 9, there are two others who also have gone all-in: Kasich, the Ohio governor, and Christie, the New Jersey governor. Those candidates have struggled to gain traction among donors, their fundraising reports show.

Kasich and Christie each raised about $3 million in between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31. Kasich closed out the year with about $2.5 million in cash, and Christie with just over $1 million.

Kasich’s allies were eager to portray his financial prospects as improving. Outside groups supporting his bid said they’ve landed $4 million in checks from six donors in the past few weeks, a period of time not covered by the reports filed Sunday.

Cruz, by contrast, has proved an adept fundraiser. For the year, he raised about $47 million. His most recent report showed 42 percent of that came from contributors giving $200 or less, people who can continue to replenish his treasury. Donors are limited to $2,700 apiece for the primary contest.

That small-donor rate is far better than those of Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie.

On the opposite end of giving, the outside groups known as super political action committees also are displaying the effects of a crowded Republican primary. Super PACs can accept unlimited donations but cannot take directions from the candidates they’re helping.

Some of these big donors are spreading their largess — splitting much-needed funding among some of the candidates’ super PACs.

Chicago investment manager David Herro is a prime example.

Herro gave $50,000 in July to America Leads, the super PAC supporting Christie. But in November, he gave $150,000 to Conservative Solutions PAC, which supports Rubio. His support swung back to Christie in December, though, when he gave Christie’s super PAC another $250,000.

Hedge fund manager Seth Klarman also split his money between super PACs for Christie and Rubio. Klarman gave $250,000 to Conservative Solutions PAC in early December. Later that month, he wrote a $100,000 check to America Leads.

New York investment banker Herbert Allen had perhaps the quickest turnaround in support. He gave $50,000 on Dec. 17 to America Leads, then the next day gave $50,000 to New Day for America, the super PAC boosting Kasich.

Julian Robertson, a hedge-fund billionaire, gave $1 million to Bush’s super PAC in June and $25,000 to a pro-Kasich group in August. Chris Cline, a coal executive, gave $500,000 to Rubio’s Conservative Solutions PAC in September, four months after he gave Bush’s Right to Rise $1 million through a limited liability company.

Another multiplayer, Joe Ricketts, the billionaire founder of TD Ameritrade, and his wife, Marlene, have cut checks to groups helping Bush, Christie, Rubio and Cruz — as well as several who are no longer in the race.

Stanley Hubbard, a billionaire Minnesota broadcast executive who doesn’t want to see Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket, said he would spend major money backing any of the four mainstream candidates — if only one would rise to the top.

“If we get someone who really has a chance of doing something, I’m ready,” Hubbard told The Associated Press.

There are another six Republicans also vying for the nomination, and most of them saw depleted campaign coffers as of Dec. 31.

Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who won the Iowa caucuses in 2012, closed out the year with just $43,000 cash on hand and more than $16,000 in debts to pay. The 2008 GOP Iowa winner, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, had less than $134,000 at the end of December — and $50,000 in debts.

Cash flow could be issue for 4 GOP contenders seeking boost from New Hampshire

Money may be growing tight for four Republican presidential hopefuls clustered under Donald Trump and Ted Cruz,  just when they’re about to need it the most.

Financial reports coming out Sunday will show who began the year with enough cash to put their long-range campaign plans into motion. For Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich, the aim is a strong showing in New Hampshire on Feb. 9 that power-boosts them deep into primary season. Marco Rubio‘s imperative is to do well enough in the first four states’ votes that he can make a sustained climb in the following weeks.

That sort of long slog would be costly because it involves travel across the two dozen states that hold contests on or before March 15. And some of those states, including Virginia, Florida and Ohio, have expensive advertising markets.

“If you’re going to proceed after New Hampshire, you’re absolutely going to need considerable funds,” said Fred Malek, who has helped four decades of Republican presidential candidates raise money. “The pace of the primaries builds up rapidly. It’s far better to already have the cash on hand rather than have to ramp up.”

The financial health of the campaigns of Christie, Kasich, Bush and Rubio is critically important because they’re competing not only with each other, but with Trump, a billionaire who has vowed to spend whatever it takes to win, and Cruz, who began the year with $19 million in the bank, an amount that probably exceeds most of his rivals. The foursome is considered to be competing for mainstream Republicans in a campaign that has seen Trump and Cruz most effectively tap populist anger and disdain for the establishment.

In addition to the candidates, the outside political groups known as super PACs helping them must turn in progress reports on their fundraising and spending Sunday.

Stanley Hubbard, a billionaire Minnesota broadcast executive, said he’s poised to write a large check to a super PAC backing any one of his preferred candidates, Rubio, Christie and Bush, among others.

“If we get someone who really has a chance of doing something, I’m ready,” he said. “Someone just needs to rise to the top.”

Asked whether he’s confident anyone will have enough money to compete with Trump or Cruz, he said: “No, I do not feel confident. But I’m hopeful.”

There are signs that Rubio could be facing a cash crisis.

After his campaign began leasing corporate jets and hiring dozens of additional employees at the end of the year, it recently downsized its advertising plans in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, according to advertising tracker Kantar Media’s CMAG. His campaign said it would air a 30-minute Rubio town hall over the weekend on several Iowa TV stations. Federal broadcast filings show that sets him back at least $12,000.

On Friday, Rubio acknowledged the obvious, telling reporters he’s not going to be the candidate with the most campaign cash. He also said he thinks his campaign has spent money wisely, building up staffing slowly, and trimming the ad buy to save money.

For Bush, the budget crunch arrived in October, when a fundraising shortfall — combined with the realization that the primary could last well into 2016 — prompted him to narrow what had been a large national campaign to focus squarely on New Hampshire.

“It’s super hard to raise money,” said Anthony Scaramucci, a New York-based top fundraiser for Bush. “We’ve knuckled down to the new reality.” But he said the Bush finance team is working furiously and “generating cash every day for the campaign.”

Judging by their ad buys, Christie and Kasich haven’t been reaping much contributor cash, either.

Even as they barnstorm New Hampshire, they’ve each spent only about $500,000 on commercials there, CMAG shows. That’s less than retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has paid little mind to New Hampshire.

Christie campaign strategist Mike DuHaime said he expects “a new influx” of cash if Christie performs well in New Hampshire and at least some of his competitors drop out. But under several scenarios, all four candidates could think they’ve done well enough to continue on.

Come Sunday, fundraising reports answer the question which of the four is best financially prepared to do so.

As of Sept. 30, the last time the campaigns had to report, Christie had collected $4.2 million for the year, Kasich $4.4 million, Rubio $15.5 million and Bush $24.8 million.

Previous filings also hinted at a fundraising challenge facing them: They’re struggling to connect with low-dollar donors who can give again and again, replenishing campaign treasuries if the candidates survive deep into the primaries.

For Christie, Bush and Kasich, people giving $200 or less were barely a blip in their fundraising totals. About 20 percent of Rubio’s operation is supported that way, compared with 42 percent of Cruz’s.

That could be why all four lean heavily on super PACs to communicate with voters through paid media. While campaigns can raise no more than $2,700 from each donor for the primaries, super PACs can — and do — take million-dollar checks.

These outside groups have accounted for almost 90 percent of the $129 million in radio and television ads aired by the four establishment Republicans, according to CMAG.

But super PACs can only do so much, as Scott Walker and Rick Perry can attest. Both had well-funded outside efforts in their corner, but folded up their presidential bids when their campaigns couldn’t raise enough money to keep going.

Republished with permission of the Associated Press.

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