Laurel Lee cruised through a GOP Primary. Will Pat Kemp put up a bigger fight in CD 15 this November?

U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee cruised through a Republican Primary that at one point seemed potentially dicey. Will the Thonotosassa Republican also ease into a second term this November?

The freshman Congresswoman hasn’t been listed as a target by House Democrats or a vulnerable incumbent by House Republicans. But voters in Florida’s 15th Congressional District were more divided than in any other Florida district during the 2020 Presidential Election.

Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp sees opportunity in that fact. She jumped into the race weeks before the qualifying deadline, approached after no other Democrat filed.

“I knew the numbers were fairly good and fairly competitive and only leaned slightly Republican,” she said. “I thought ‘Oh my God, the entire nation and entire world is hanging on a thread,’ in my view of things. That one congressional seat could make a difference and could turn everything for the whole country. There was no way I could leave that unchallenged.”

But Lee’s campaign feels confident voters will elect her to a second term.

“Congresswoman Lee has shown leadership not only for her home district, but she has also shown leadership on the national stage,” said campaign spokesperson Sarah Bascom.

“She was appointed to the select task force to investigate the attempted assassination of President Trump; was entrusted with serving as the House Impeachment Manager for the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; fought against inflationary policy, excessive, wasteful spending, and promoted American energy independence; supported the strongest border bill in a generation; voted for the NDAA to provide vital funding to our domestic military and ensure basic quality of life for our service members; and much more.”

The political fight that hung over the race earlier in the cycle appeared to be in a Republican Primary after Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump called for a party challenge, apparently over Lee’s early endorsement of Gov. Ron DeSantis for President. But Trump ultimately changed course and backed Lee over two Republican candidates running from Lee’s right. She ultimately trounced competitors in August.

She also closed July with $1.28 million in cash on hand, compared to Kemp’s less than $152,000. Lee spent some of that to win her Primary while Kemp secured the Democratic nomination without opposition, but the incumbent undoubtedly enters the General Election season with more resources at her disposal.

But Kemp has been on a mission of late to prove to national Democrats she can make the race competitive. She got a big lift when she commissioned a July poll with Change Research that had Kemp trailing Lee by less than a percentage point, well within the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of error. And that survey went out before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, which surged Democrats’ enthusiasm.

The same poll showed more than 60% of voters in the district will support constitutional amendments to restore abortion rights in Florida and legalize recreational marijuana, two issues Kemp believes will boost Democratic turnout in the Fall.

But she also said she can win even if she gets outspent. Kemp has run countywide for the Hillsborough County Commission five times, and won four of those contests, while being outspent every time. That includes a 2020 race against former Hillsborough County Commission Chair Sandra Murman, who spent $1.3 million to Kemp’s $500,000 and Kemp still won by 5 percentage points.

“With Lee, her personal wealth is $8.2M. I won’t compete with that,” Kemp said. “But I’m used to being the underdog financially. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have a person run.”

In the last election cycle, CD 15 was widely seen as a new seat, the product of population gains that resulted in Florida picking up another U.S. House seat as part of the reapportionment process. Central Florida seemed the reasonable place for it, with significant population growth between Tampa Bay and Lakeland.

But it was clearly a battleground as well. Trump outperformed Biden with CD 15 voters in 2020, but with less than 51% of voters there favoring the Republican.

There was a different story in 2022, however. Lee, fresh off a stint as Florida Secretary of State, won the open seat over Democrat Alan Cohn with almost 59% of the vote. The same night, roughly the same percentage of voters supported DeSantis’ re-election and 57% backed U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio for a third term.

As of the book closing for the March election, registered Republicans made up nearly 38% of voters in the district, with more than 165,000 voters on rolls compared to 141,000 Democrats and 120,000 voters without party affiliation.

“We do not think her challenger will flip the seat,” Bascom said, though she said that confidence won’t impact how Lee runs her re-election bid.

“Any good campaign will run like it is 10 points behind and will put in the work day in and day out — and that is exactly what Congresswoman Lee will do.”

Kemp thinks voters will feel different this cycle. Democrats performed poorly across the board in 2022, while Republicans overperformed in every corner of the state. Turnout should be high during a Presidential Election year.

Kemp also questioned whether Lee represents the voters of a purple district, noting the incumbent has controversial Republican U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene more than 90% of the time.

“She is not loud like them,” Kemp said. “She has a veneer of being presidential and serious. But she is as extreme and more dangerous for what she represents, for her leadership with the Republican Study Committee. She is there to give them that veneer of respectability, but that is Project 2025 in action.”