Anthony Pedicini: Deep-dive into the numbers behind Amanda Murphy’s win in HD 36

The October 2013 Special Election for House District 36 showcased the great turnout operation of Republican volunteers and the campaign, shed light on just how tarnished the Republican “brand” is among independent voters and measured the influence of Mike Fasano.

The General Election in 2010 was a wave year for Republicans.  It featured an excited Republican electorate, combined with a depressed Democrat base.  In HD 36 in 2010, Republicans held exactly a 9.0% Republican Turnout advantage, compared to just 0.2% in the 2012 General Election.

The Republican infrastructure eclipsed that 9.0% high water mark and was able to drive that turnout advantage in the Special Election to 9.2%, making it an even more favorable environment for the Republican candidate in this election.

Out of the 18,900 ballots cast, Republicans held a roughly 1,700-ballot advantage, but still lost by 322 votes.

Where Did the Election Turn?

The answer is simple – Independents.  For every four Independent votes, the Gunter campaign was losing 3 of them and though the percentage of Independents in the Special Election was only 16.0% (even lower than 2010 General Election), it was still enough raw votes (roughly 3,000 ballots), to cost the Gunter campaign victory.

Republicans, up until Election Day and the endorsement of Murphy by Fasano, were still staying with Gunter at a healthy margin (87.5% – 12.5%), and Gunter was getting a respectable portion of Democrats (14.0% Gunter to 86.0% Murphy).  It was with the Independents where Gunter was taking too heavy of losses to keep up (26.9% Gunter – 73.1% Murphy).

Measuring the ‘Fasano Effect’

To get a measurement of just how much that cost the Gunter campaign we first take the Early and Absentee (EAV) turnout and projected results that were tabulated by Strategic Image Management (SIM) heading into Election Day.

Of the 10,951 ballots EAV, Republicans held a 349-ballot advantage, but SIM had the absentee results scored:

The actual results showed Gunter receiving 2 more votes from the EAV total, and Murphy received 74 fewer votes for an actual EAV deficit of 336 votes.

This is the first indication that the partisan % SIM used to tabulate its EAV Projection (which are list above) were quite accurate in gauging voter sentiment, which is in part due to very good polling data.

If voters on Election Day had continued to vote at the same rate as they did on Early and Absentee Voting, Election Day results would’ve looked as follows:

Leaving the Gunter campaign (when taking the actual 336 deficit from EAV and adding in the projected 545 vote surplus from Election Day voting) ahead by +209 votes. 

But instead of winning Election Day by 545 votes, the Gunter campaign won by only 14 votes.  So, here is where we can measure the ‘Fasano Effect’.

Considering both Democrats and Independents were voting for Gunter at very low rates, we assume that those 14% of Democrats and 26% of Independents weren’t going to budge off their anti-Murphy vote just with an endorsement since they were already outliers against Amanda Murphy.

So how much did Republican turnout change from EAV to Election Day?

If you keep Democrat and Independent percentages the same as to who they voted for, but change the Republican number from 87.5% Gunter – 12.5% Murphy to 81.0% Gunter – 19.0% Murphy, here is the Election Day results:

Which mirrors the 14-vote advantage Gunter had on Election Day, despite having a nearly 1,400 Republican Election Day ballot advantage.

So by percentage, Mike Fasano’s endorsement and final weekends activity was worth a 13% swing in Murphy’s favor (and more than likely that came from Republican voters), or in raw vote terms, 265 voters switched from Gunter to Murphy.  

Conclusion

Even with a big turnout advantage, particularly on Election Day, Republicans couldn’t hold on to a seat that on paper should still be ours today.  The Party’s largest concern from HD 36 should not be Mike Fasano’s endorsement but rather the dismal performance of the Republican candidate with Independent voters.

If the Gunter campaign had lost Independents by a 2-1 margin, instead of 3-1, Bill Gunter, even with the ‘Fasano effect’ would have edged Amanda Murphy out for HD 36.

The long-term effects of an Independent voter exodus will place toss-up/pick-up seats out of reach, and move lean Republican seats into toss-up seats, and likely Republican seats into lean Republican seats, making 2014, not only more competitive, but more costly.

Editor’s note: Tom Piccolo contributed to this post.