Peter Schorsch
Sunburn — The definitive morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry, Ryan Ray, Jim Rosica, and Scott Powers.
KEEP THIS IN MIND: While the political world is focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, tens of thousands of ballots were mailed Friday to military and overseas voters by Florida’s elections supervisors.
TURNOUT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN TONIGHT’S IOWA CAUCUSES
Democrat Bernie Sanders says he’s ready to stun the political world if his supporters turn out for Monday’s presidential caucuses in Iowa. Donald Trump says he doesn’t have to capture the first contest on the 2016 election calendar, but gives himself a good chance and sees a solid path ahead to the Republican nomination.
All the contenders are begging their backers to make it to the caucuses.
A snowfall forecast to start Monday night appeared more likely to hinder the hopefuls in their rush out of Iowa — and to New Hampshire, with its Feb. 9 primary — than the voters.
“People are really enthusiastic, and if people come out to vote, I think you’re going to look at one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country,” Sanders told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The Vermont senator and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are in a tight race.
On the GOP side, Trump said, “I don’t have to win” in Iowa, before adding that he believes he has “a good chance” of victory.
He said he was confident of taking New Hampshire and many other contests down the road. “One of the reasons that I’ll win and, I think, none of the other guys will win is because I’m going to get states that they’ll never get,” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation,” citing Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, along with strong hopes for New York and Virginia.
Republican Ted Cruz directed much of his final advertising against Marco Rubio as the senators’ feud grows even more bitter in the last days.
Texan Cruz, considered Trump’s chief rival in Iowa, took to the airwaves to challenge the conservative credentials of Rubio, the Floridian who’s running third in Iowa, according to the polls.
One ad said of Rubio: “Tax hikes. Amnesty. The Republican Obama.”
“The desperation kicks in,” Rubio said in response. “From my experience, when people start attacking you it’s because you’re doing something right.”
Iowa offers only a small contingent of the delegates who will determine the nominees, but the game of expectations counts for far more than the electoral math in the state. Campaigns worked aggressively to set those expectations in their favor (meaning, lower them) for Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.
Rubio strategist Todd Harris said the Iowa goal is to end up behind the flamboyant Trump and the highly organized Cruz.
“There’s no question we are feeling some wind at our back,” Harris told The Associated Press. But, he added, “It’s very hard to compete with the greatest show on earth and the greatest ground game in Iowa history.
DETAILS ABOUT THE CAUCUSES AND WHAT TO LOOK FOR
When and where: The caucuses will start across the state at 7 p.m. CST Monday, with Democrats gathering at 1,100 locations and Republicans joining at nearly 900 spots. The length of each meeting can vary depending on turnout, with delays in voting possible if volunteers must struggle to record long lines of participants. The caucuses are run by the parties, not state or county elections officials.
Rules: The parties have held their caucuses on the same night for 40 years, but they operate differently. For Republicans, it’s all pretty simple as party members gather, hear brief speeches for candidates and then fill out ballots. Those who want to stick around to conduct party business can do so, but many participants leave soon after voting. Those votes are tabulated and reported to the party via a smartphone app, developed for both parties, and the data is made available to the media. Iowa’s 30 Republican delegates will be awarded proportionally, based on the statewide vote. The Democrats take a more interactive approach with voters forming groups and publicly declaring their support for a candidate. If the number of people in any group is fewer than 15 percent of the total, they can either choose not to participate or can join another viable candidate’s group. This means another candidate viewed as second-best by a nonviable candidate’s supporters could ultimately get a big boost as they regroup. Those numbers are awarded proportionately, based on statewide and congressional district voting, as Iowa Democrats determine their 44 delegates to the national convention.
Turnout: The Iowa Republican Party chair, Jeff Kaufmann, said he expects GOP turnout to top the previous record of 120,000 people, set in 2012. Andy McGuire, the Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman, said she also expects a high turnout, though not as large as the 2008 caucuses, when Barack Obama, Clinton, John Edwards and other candidates drew 240,000 to the party’s caucuses. Even if turnout meets the party’s expectations, it’s worth noting that only a sliver of Iowa voters will participate in the caucuses. About 1.2 million residents are registered in either the Democratic or Republican party, and another 727,000 voters don’t declare a political party. So, even if there is a strong turnout of 300,000 voters, that would mean a turnout of about 15 percent of registered voters. In the 2012 general election, Iowa’s 73 percent turnout was among the nation’s highest.
Weather: One factor in turnout is always the weather, which can be awful in February. This year it looks like the parties could catch a break with temperatures expected to remain above freezing for most of the state until the event is over. Look out, though. A snowstorm is forecast to hit the next day, and if the wintry weather arrives earlier than expected, at least, some caucusgoers could opt to stay home rather than brave slick roads.
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FINAL POLLS
— Des Moines Register — Democrats — Clinton 45 percent, Sanders 42 percent, O’Malley 3 percent.
— Des Moines Register — Republicans — Trump at 28 percent, Cruz 23 percent, Rubio 15 percent, Carson 10 percent, Paul 5 percent, Christie 3 percent, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Santorum 2 percent.
— Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Trump leading the GOP pack with 31 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent, Rubio at 13 percent, Carson at 7 percent and Bush at 6 percent.
— CNN poll of New Hampshire: Trump 30%, Cruz 12%, Rubio 11%, Kasich 9%, Christie 8%, Bush 6%.
— Boston Herald poll of New Hampshire: Trump 38%, Cruz 13%, Bush 10%, Rubio 10%
IOWA PREDICTIONS: JOE TRIPPI via PoliticalWire.com — Trippi, who managed Gov. Howard Dean’s presidential campaign in 2004 … thinks Hillary Clinton will win on the Democratic side: “Iowa is made for Bernie Sanders, but I think Clinton pulls it out.’ For Republicans, he says, “Everything I know about past caucuses points to Cruz winning it, but two things would not surprise me: Rubio and the rest of the field pulling Cruz down below Trump and enough energized Trump supporters turning out to hand him a win anyway.” In the end, Trippi thinks Cruz will prevail “but if Trump pulls out Iowa it means his people will turn out everywhere, and Cruz and the rest of the field are in deeper trouble than they know.”
IN THE IOWA CAUCUSES, LOOK FOR RESULTS THAT SURPRISE YOU via Charlie Cook of the National Journal — Both the GOP and Democratic races will turn on whether emotion tops organization … Iowa caucuses can be expected to provide some clarity … but don’t expect too much. One way to look at the results is to think of what outcomes would surprise you, and change your assumptions about the state of each contest and where each is headed. Anything contrary to your expectations should be considered potentially significant. In the Republican race, the fight between front-runner Trump and Cruz is expected to be very close, though most assume that Trump has an edge. If either won by, say, five or more points, that would be significant. If Trump won by a healthy margin, many (though not me) think that given his big lead in New Hampshire polling, he would be unstoppable. Conversely, if Cruz wins by a handful of points, Trump’s big Granite State advantage could seriously erode. Part of Trump’s appeal is that he is seen by his supporters as a winner, a guy who can do anything. A loss by more than a few points, besides possibly causing Trump’s head to explode, could peel back a layer or two of his aura of invincibility. Keep in mind two things. Keep in mind two things. First, don’t put all your eggs in the momentum basket. New Hampshire voters have demonstrated a temptation or even willingness to repeal the Iowa outcome, reinforcing their claim as the picker of presidents. Second, nominations are about delegates, and very, very few are selected in Iowa, New Hampshire, or, for that matter, South Carolina and Nevada, the other two February contests. March is the month that is the mother lode of delegates; then the process extends at a more muted level until the California primary on June 7.
HILLARY CLINTON CONFRONTS HER 43 percent PROBLEM via Annie Karni of POLITICO — Mitt Romney had a 47 percent problem. Clinton’s problem is 43 percent. That’s the share of Democratic caucus goers in Iowa who identify themselves as “socialists,” according to a recent Des Moines Register poll. It’s a percentage that has turned a once-easy line of attack — painting Bernie Sanders as too far left to be electable — into a trickier endeavor for Clinton in the last days before the Iowa caucuses.
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WHAT BERNIE SANDERS NEEDS TO LEARN FROM CLINTON, AND VICE VERSA via Joe Rospars of The Washington Post — Rospars [is] founder of Blue State Digital, and Obama’s principal digital strategist in 2008 and 2012: What Sanders can learn from Clinton … You can’t be just an insurgent or an insider … You must be both … Both the Clinton and Sanders teams inherited an ingrained culture of constant testing and data-driven optimization that shapes every ad, every email, every call script for a volunteer and every list of voters they call. And both campaigns have built their organizing efforts on the foundation of tech and data infrastructure at the Democratic National Committee that first came together in the 2008 cycle. This modernization of movement-building also means that the potency of an insurgent-led campaign has grown — by a lot … In a previous era, a candidate like Sanders might have been deprived of the scarce talent or limited party infrastructure needed to mount an enterprise-level campaign. But Sanders has been able to make use of the wide talent pool and the specific tech cultivated by Obama, and he’s now surpassed the pace of grass-roots fundraising that the Obama campaign set in 2008 and 2012, with more than 2.5 million individual contributions before the Iowa caucuses. (Obama, by the end of 2011, had 2.2 million.) … If Sanders wins, he’ll need to pay far more attention to traditional politics than he’s done so far, in order to leverage the institutional support that the Democratic Party apparatus can provide its nominee. The winner will be tempted to view victory as a validation of the insider-friendly or insurgent-led approach. But … the opponent they’ve just defeated will, nevertheless, have accomplished something they didn’t.
HOW TED CRUZ BLEW THE IOWA EXPECTATIONS GAME via Shane Goldmacher and Katie Glueck of POLITICO — Rubio can lose to Cruz … and walk away looking like the winner … Rubio has successfully spun that he’s only gunning for third place here. In sharp contrast, Cruz’s campaign, touting its superior ground game, has openly pined for and predicted victory. The result: in the closing hours, Iowa is suddenly fraught with risk for Cruz while Rubio … is almost guaranteed to meet or beat diminished expectations.
— “What wrecked Ben Carson’s campaign? Ex-staffers blame his close friend.” via Russ Choma of Mother Jones Magazine
BUZZ BUILDS FOR MARCO RUBIO IN IOWA via Jonathan Easley of The Hill — Iowa Republicans and independent analysts in the state say Rubio is primed to break free from the second tier of contenders and finally emerge as the candidate to save the establishment from Trump and Cruz, who are battling for the lead in Iowa. “He easily has the greatest upside,” said Doug Gross, who served as Iowa finance chairman for the campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. “Mainstream Republicans are not comfortable with Trump or Cruz, and the more I hear from them, the more they say they’ve decided on Rubio. He has the greatest potential, and it’s driven by pragmatism, a desire to win, and angst with the two front-runners.” To be sure, that assumes more strength for Rubio than is currently reflected in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the race for Iowa is a two-man contest with Trump the front-runner at 31 percent, and Cruz hanging on at 25 percent. Rubio is a distant third place at 14 percent. However, Iowa is known for producing late-surging candidates.
— “Here’s what’s really happening with Rubio in Iowa” via Charles Pierce of Esquire
AHEAD OF CAUCUSES, RUBIO AIRING 30-MINUTE SPECIALS via The Associated Press — Rubio is airing 30-minute television programs in every Iowa television market this weekend. Rubio is flying from Dubuque to Sioux City and other cities on Saturday … The TV programs will show excerpts of the town hall-style meetings Rubio has relied on in recent months … Rubio’s team has focused more on Iowa in the past several weeks. His campaign sees an opening to rise into the top tier … alongside … Trump and … Cruz. [Rubio] has held more public events in Iowa since Thanksgiving than any other Republican. Preview the video here.
RUBIO’S LONG GAME via Benjamin Wallace-Wells of the New Yorker — “A strong third” … Rubio’s campaign, careful about expectations, insisted this was still their goal in Iowa after the debate last night. Iowa, alive this season with a plains fury, has always seemed unlikely territory for the controlled Floridian … If Rubio has seemed to sand away the hopeful edges of his campaign — then, for the first time in many weeks, it has become possible to credit the Rubio campaign’s insistence that generic is a strategy, and that they are playing a long game … The calls for Rubio to attack Trump, to take a more specific position within these family battles, have been growing. But that seems unlikely: Rubio’s strategy has been to hang around, be the background hum, until voters turn their attention to the general election. That seems a wise strategy if Rubio is very near the front of the field, and an unwise one if he is not. So much seems to depend upon exactly how strong Rubio’s third place will be.
WITH IOWA A LOST CAUSE, JEB BUSH LOOKS MORE RELAXED via Patricia Mazzei of the Miami Herald — In the final days leading to the first Republican vote … Bush at long last seemed liberated. He was the candidate who might have been, sans Trump. During Thursday night’s Trump-less debate in Des Moines, Bush embraced his family’s political dynasty, and did so almost with gusto. “Look,” Bush said in response to a question about the GOP’s mainstream-vs.-outsider divide. “I am in the establishment because my dad, the greatest man alive, was president of the United States, and my brother, who I adore as well, as a fantastic brother, was president. Fine, I’ll take it. I guess I’m part of the establishment. Barbara Bush is my mom. I’ll take that, too. But this election is not about our pedigree; this is an election about people that are really hurting. We need a leader that will fix things and has a proven record to do it.” His answer would have been nearly unthinkable eight months ago, when Bush, not yet a presidential candidate, stumbled over and over again when asked about his brother’s Iraq War and his family’s dynastic legacy. Bush’s inability to deal with The Bush Question, his candidacy’s most evident obstacle, was an early warning sign to some Republican donors and strategists that he might be in trouble.
SPOTTED in Iowa campaigning for Bush: Rep. Bill Hager, Slater Bayliss, Fritz Brogan, Tiffany Carr, Henry Dean, Tom Feeney, Ann Herberger, Curt Kiser, Alan Levine, Gene McGee, Kathleen Shanahan, Denver Stutler, Cory Tilley, Trey Traviesa, Nicole Valls.
SPOTTED in Iowa campaigning for Rubio: Former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, Ralph Arza, Nick Iarossi, Len Collins, Ralph Perez.
DONALD TRUMP’S MAGIC NUMBER: 135,000 via National Review – Four years ago, a record-breaking number of Iowans — 121,503 — participated in the Republican caucuses. If turnout exceeds 135,000 this year, GOP insiders agree, it will be an indication that Trump has attracted a significant number of new voters to the caucuses. And if the increase is even more drastic — say, upwards of 150,000, which some Republicans believe is possible — then Trump will likely win. But if turnout is below 135,000, Iowa will be Cruz’s to lose…
AN IOWA WIN MIGHT MAKE THE TRUMP TRAIN UNSTOPPABLE via Eli Stokols and Mike Allen of POLITICO — Mike McSherry, a longtime campaign consultant and former executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said: “If Trump wins Iowa, I don’t know how you’d stop him. All these guys are going to be chewing each other’s throats out for second place.” A top official of a rival GOP campaign … said: “If … Trump wins Iowa, I think he has won-period. Cruz is supposed to win Iowa. If Trump wins, he’ll be on a trajectory to come out of the SEC primaries [March 1] with close to triple the delegates of anyone else.” … For weeks, Trump has been telling his crowds here that he thinks a win in the Feb. 1 caucuses would enable him to “run the table” … Cruz, the once-clear Iowa front-runner, warned supporters that if Trump wins in Iowa Monday and eight days later in New Hampshire, where he holds an even larger lead, “’there is a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee.” These two anti-establishment rivals are both using the same line to motivate their own supporters.”
EMAILS RUNNETH OVER: “Hi” via Bill Clinton; “Prove Bernie wrong,” “So grateful for you,” “Watch this heartwarming story about Hillary” via Hillary Clinton campaign; “Take a look at this” via Ben Carson campaign; “ERROR: Unreachable,” “This is going to be hard,” “I need to ask,” via Ted Cruz campaign; “Double your impact,” “I know it’s Sunday” via Marco Rubio campaign; “Blame Canada: Rubio gunning for Scott Walker endorsement” via American Bridge.
TWEET, TWEET:
@BillAdairDuke: Weird night on Twitter. I keep confusing the #GreaseLive tweets with Iowa caucus ones.
@GlennThrush: There are so many f—ing reporters in Des Moines right now, it makes me want to be a bartender. They’re the only ones getting any actual news
@MagicJohnson: Glad that they will be voting Monday in the Iowa Caucuses. Good luck to my candidate @HillaryClinton!
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— “Koch network spent nearly $400M in 2015” via Jonathan Swan of The Hill
RUBIO SUPER PAC RAISEDS ANOTHER $14 MILLION via Maureen Groppe of USA Today – A super PAC supporting Rubio’s White House bid raised more than $14 million in the second half of 2015, with $1 million of that coming from billionaire Florida car dealer Norman Braman, who had already given $5 million. Other large contributions included: $2.5 million from Ken Griffin, a hedge-fund manager and deep-pocketed Republican donor who had previously given $100,000; $2.5 million from billionaire investor Paul Singer, one of the most influential GOP donors of recent elections; $1 million from Cliff Asness, co-founder of the investment management firm AQR Capital Management; $500,000 from Robert McNair, a Texas businessman and owner of the NFL’s Houston Texans.
TWEET, TWEET: @R2RUSA: Report: Raised: $15.1M Raised TD: $118M COH: $58.6M
CAMPAIGNING IN STYLE: HOW BUSH BLEW THROUGH HIS WARCHEST via Michelle Conlin and Grant Smith of Reuters — In the world of Bush … At times been a whirl of private planes and high-end affairs, according to the federal filings of Bush’s campaign and his Super PAC, Right to Rise … It is not unusual for U.S. presidential candidates to fly private or even sometimes stay in luxury hotels. But some disgruntled donors say they are unhappy with Bush’s large outlays, which also include big spending on staff and tens of millions of dollars in ad buys. Eleven of 16 major donors contacted … questioned whether it was money well spent, especially given how the one-time front-runner has stumbled badly in the polls and is now facing questions about whether he should withdraw from the race. Several members of the Bush camp vigorously rejected the donor critiques. Bush spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said, “We are running a national campaign that is competing everywhere, and we have made investments that have allowed us to do what serious campaigns must do to be competitive in the primary and general elections.”
BUSH LAWYER ASKS NH ATTORNEY GENERAL TO CLARIFY ROBOCALL LAW via John DiStaso of WMUR — Megan Sowards, general counsel for the Bush campaign, in a letter Friday cited WMUR’s reports … in which Granite Staters received prerecorded political messages from Ohio Gov. John Kasich‘s despite being on the federal “do not call” list. State law forbids prerecorded political message calls to be made those on that list.
CRUZ ANNOUNCES HUGE WAR CHEST via Patrick Svitek of the Texas Tribune — Cruz … ended 2015 with $19 million in the bank. Cruz’s war chest is likely one of the largest in the GOP field. At the end of the third quarter of 2015, Cruz’s campaign had $13.8 million cash on hand, more than any other Republican candidate. Cruz’s campaign had already announced raising more than $20 million in the fourth quarter. His team has said it has taken in millions more since the start of 2016, bringing its total fundraising to north of $50 million.
CRUZ’S TV ADS JUDGED MOST EFFECTIVE via Scott Bland of POLITICO — According to Ace Metrix’s ratings, the normal rating in the political category was 452 … Cruz‘s “kill the terrorists” ad scored a whopping 704. … Republican viewers … consistently found Cruz’s spots more watchable, persuasive, and attention-getting, and they typically made more viewers want to seek more information about Cruz after watching the spots. … [P]articipants … rated [the first Trump spot about banning Muslims from the U.S.] as the second-best ad.
WHY YOU SHOULDN’T PANIC OVER THE THOUGHT OF PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times — The case for Trump: 1. Change. Washington is hopelessly broken. The politicians and political insiders have had decades to fix it, and Washington’s dysfunction has only grown. 2. Don’t buy Trump’s bluster. News flash: Sometimes people running for office say things they don’t actually mean or don’t expect to carry out. 3. Instincts. Trump is not the first presidential candidate ridiculed as a shallow lightweight not up to the job. Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan were also widely underestimated and proved to be a couple of America’s most consequential presidents. That’s not a prediction he would rise to their stature in history, but he has shown a similar understanding of the electorate’s pulse. If you believe the political system in Washington is broken so badly that it’s beyond the capacity of anyone part of that system to fix it, maybe an obnoxious outsider is exactly what we need.
EXPERIENCING THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: A VIRTUAL REALITY FILM via Patrick Healy, Graham Roberts, Cornelius Schmid and Yuliya Parshina Kottas of The New York Times — Here is … Trump, all smiles on the rope line as he signs your copy of his book. There is Cruz in a cozy dinner spot, warning about the perils facing America. Sanders stirs passions with strong words, while Clinton tries to connect with younger voters. But the best part of campaign events are the crowds, because you see, hear, and even feel what these people care about. Watching college students scream in excitement over Mr. Sanders, a 74-year-old senator from Vermont, is slightly surreal, especially when it is phrases like “Glass-Steagall” — an 82-year-old bank regulation law — that send them to the heights of ecstasy. Democracy is alive and well when as many people as possible see it in action. The technology is a gateway for everyone who does not live in an early primary state and wonders what all the fuss is about there every four years. Experiencing the virtual world of campaign events can leave one wanting to dip more into the body politic, especially because it can be so entertaining.
GEORGE SOROS DONATES $8 MILLION TO BOOST CLINTON via Ken Vogel of POLITICO – Soros in December donated $6 million to the leading super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, marking the return of the billionaire financier as among the biggest givers in all of American politics. The massive check brings to $8 million the Hungarian-born investor’s total 2015 giving to pro-Clinton groups.
SPOTTED at the St. Petersburg home of Joe and Katherine Saunders on Friday: Chelsea Clinton
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RON DESANTIS TRUMPETS 4Q FUNDRAISING; DAVID JOLLY CALLS HIM A LIAR via A.G. Gankarski of Florida Politics – It’s getting chippy between the Florida Senate campaigns. Ron DeSantis, in a Sunday release, trumpeted his fundraising numbers. However, David Jolly fired back. DeSantis asserts that his operation raised “nearly twice as much ($772K) as the Senate campaigns of Republicans David Jolly ($130K) and [Carlos] Lopez-Cantera ($318K) in the fourth quarter of 2015. The DeSantis for Florida campaign finished 2015 with $2.6m cash on hand – far more than any of his opponents.”
“It’s become clear that Ron DeSantis is the only candidate who will have both the resources necessary and the conservative grassroots support to beat Patrick Murphy or Alan Grayson in November,” said Brad Herold, campaign manager for Ron DeSantis for Florida.
Team Jolly, meanwhile, diverges from the DeSantis read of events.
“Ron DeSantis is bragging about how much money he raised during the same period ISIS was terrorizing Paris and San Bernardino,” said Max Goodman, Jolly’s Political Director.
“Sadly, it’s the only part of his political career he attends to, as evidenced by his recent missed votes to hang out with mega donors and college kids in Vegas, while Rep. Jolly and his House colleagues were attending to legislation to fund our veterans, law enforcement and9/11 first responders,” Goodman added.
ALAN GRAYSON ANNOUNCES $591,000 IN FUNDRAISING — INCLUDING NEW PERSONAL LOAN — TO END 2015 via Kristen Clark of the Tampa Bay Times — The Orlando congressman took in $591,000 for the three-month filing period between October and December, with average donations around $28 from 9,300 individuals representing more than 240 Florida communities and all 50 states. The total includes a new $100,000 loan Grayson gave his campaign, which is in addition to previous personal loans he’s made … the campaign is still calculating exactly how much Grayson had in cash on hand as of Dec. 31, but … it’s around the same amount “or slightly less” than what Grayson had heading into October. Grayson reported $258,700 in the bank, as of Sept. 30.
PATRICK MURPHY GETS ANOTHER UNION NOD IN U.S. SENATE RACE via John Kennedy of the Palm Beach Post — Murphy, squaring off against U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson … who is a favorite of the Democrats’ progressive wing, is building up union backing with the Laborers’ International Union of North America the latest to come on board. “LIUNA is proud to endorse Patrick because he supports our working families and we believe that his common-sense approach to leadership is exactly what Florida needs right now,” said Glenn Farner, business manager of the union’s southeast district council. “Time and again, Patrick has proved that he will fight to protect our workers’ rights, fight for their hard-earned, high-quality union health benefits, and fight to raise the minimum wage.” Murphy has already been endorsed by the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), Florida Teamsters and the Florida Association of Retired Americans, a labor-backed retiree organization.
NEAL DUNN ANNOUNCES $700K FUNDRAISING FOR FIRST TWO QUARTERS IN CD 2RACE via Florida Politics – Dunn announced his campaign had netted over $700,000 for the first two quarters of fundraising in the race for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District … raised more than $135,000 in contributions, with another $65,000 personally added to his campaign during the fourth quarter of 2015. “I am humbled by the outpouring of support that I continue to receive for my bid to represent our local communities in U.S. Congress,” said Dunn. “Since announcing my campaign, I have had the privilege of getting out in our communities and hearing from the constituents what they want in their Congressman … What I am hearing is that they want action.”
ANDREW GILLUM OPTS AGAINST CONGRESSIONAL RUN via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat — After weeks of deliberation, the Tallahassee Mayor … has decided he will not run for Congress this year in the newly created District 5. Gillum, elected mayor in 2014, instead announced on Friday he plans to serve out the nearly three years remaining in his term. He said he made the decision after looking back on his work on issues from economic development to children and families. … The split opened the possibility Leon County could be represented in Washington by politicians from Jacksonville and Panama City, potentially rendering Tallahassee a political afterthought.
CORRINE BROWN HAS STEERED TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS TO UNUSUAL ORGANIZATION via Nate Monroe, Christopher Hong and Steve Patterson of the Florida Times-Union — Over the past four years … Brown repeatedly has used her name, office and political connections to steer tens of thousands of dollars to an obscure organization in Northern Virginia that says it helps a range of charities. Brown has touted the group, One Door for Education — Amy Anderson Scholarship Foundation, as a charitable nonprofit when courting potential donors. But the partnership with Brown is curious because One Door — a group unknown to some of its neighbors and several causes it says it supports — doesn’t appear to have the tax-exempt status commonly held by charities even as it has taken in substantial donations. It’s not clear why Brown has taken such a keen interest in One Door … Brown’s close association with One Door is unusual both for the extent of her financial help and the exposure to a wider audience her backing seems to offer. Brown also sought donations for One Door as part of a 2013 golf tournament where sponsorship levels reached as high as $20,000, though it’s unclear how successful Brown’s fundraising push was. Invitations — which included One Door letterhead, the U.S. House of Representatives seal and Brown’s signature — were sent to her supporters and city officials.
CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES MARY THOMAS FOR CD 2 via Florida Politics — “Mary Thomas is a rock-solid economic conservative, and her election would be a terrific upgrade for Florida’s panhandle,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh said … “Mary has never run for office, but has had the privilege of working in the highly-successful administration of Gov. Rick Scott, who has been a leader in cutting taxes, regulations, and spending,” he added. “Redistricting has opened an opportunity for Republicans in this race, and it’s crucial that FL-02 has a genuine economic conservative in Congress.”
ERIC LYNN RAISES $100 K IN FOURTH QUARTER, $650,000 PLUS FOR 2015 IN CD13 RACE via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics — “Across Pinellas County, I have received an outpouring of support from voters who want to see meaningful change in Washington and our community,” Lynn said …”this campaign would not be possible without these supporters who have donated their time and money because they know I will champion policies that reflect Democratic values, make economic security possible for Pinellas families and keep our country secure.” The campaign reported that they raised over $652,000 since Lynn announced his candidacy last spring.
FOR BOB BUCKHORN, SUPPORTING BARACK OBAMA TRADE DEAL COULD OFFER PERSONAL RISK, CITY REWARD via Richard Danielson of the Tampa Bay Times — Consider how much time, effort and political capital Buckhorn is spending to help Obama win congressional approval for the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Labor unions hate the agreement, also known as TPP. It’s also opposed by many Democrats in Congress, as well as by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. And Buckhorn? “We’re all in,” he said last week on a White House-arranged conference call … So why do something that could only make it harder for him to win a statewide Democratic primary? Money, for one reason. City Hall and the Tampa Housing Authority plan to ask the Obama administration for a Choice Neighborhoods grant of up to $30 million. Could it help to build up political good will ahead of time? “Absolutely,” Buckhorn acknowledges. “Relationships are mutually beneficial.” But Buckhorn said that’s not the only reason he supports TPP. “I have always had an interest in trade, have always been a free-trader,” said Buckhorn … And he notes that Tampa has the Florida port nearest the Panama Canal, a port that is spending a lot to prepare for the canal’s expansion.
***A special message from Florida’s horsemen: While legislators debate using hard-earned taxpayer dollars for corporate relocation incentives, Florida employers who’ve been hard at work for decades could lose everything, thanks to “decoupling”— a Big Casino cash grab and gambling expansion plan tucked inside the Seminole Compact. It seems senseless to kill established Florida businesses, while spending public money in hopes new business may materialize. But Florida could do just that when “decoupling” leaves horse racing investors with NO WAY to do business and NO CHANCE to recoup financial return. Gambling policy should be about growing Florida’s economy. Not padding the pockets of Big Casinos. Florida’s horsemen oppose decoupling in ANY form. NoDecoupling.com.***
CANCELED DUE TO LACK OF INTEREST: NEXT CABINET MEETING IN TAMPA via Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times — Scott‘s office has canceled the next scheduled meeting of the Cabinet scheduled for Feb. 4 at the state fairgrounds in Tampa. This was to have been the meeting held every year to mark the opening of the annual state fair, but Scott’s office pulled the plug on it because state agencies that report to the governor and Cabinet had no urgent pending business. The next scheduled Cabinet meeting is March 2 in Tallahassee.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Gov. Scott will meet with the Seminole Tribe of Florida at 10:30 a.m. at 6300 Stirling Road in Hollywood. Scott is scheduled to discuss the economic impact and job growth opportunities the Seminole Compact will have in Florida. Scott signed the compact in December, but it still needs legislative approval.
TWEET, TWEET: @Fineout: This is the 1st active engagement of @FLGovScott since session started to promote passage of the $3b deal
CHECK OUT FLORIDA’S NEW BUSINESS PROMOTION CAMPAIGN via the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — Florida unveiled its new state business brand — “Florida: The Future Is Here” — in an extensive campaign presentation Friday that shows a sleek, 21st-century theme for a state that very much wants to be a bigger economic player in the new century. The campaign will roll out swiftly across various media, from major business and trade publications and across social media, backed by an initial $10 million in funding approved by state legislators. No less key, the Legislature has approved $8.5 million in recurring annual funding to help sustain the campaign after its debut. Playing off the word “boundless,” the campaign will feature specific advertising focused on industries on which Florida especially wants to base its economy in coming years. For example, marketing materials aimed at Florida’s major system of ports and international trade show a container ship on the water with a Florida city skyline behind it with the words “Boundless markets” and a line beneath describing the state’s 11 major ports and the opportunities from the soon-to-open larger Panama Canal. At the bottom of the image is the new Florida business slogan that will anchor all the state’s business advertising going forward: “Florida: The Future Is Here.”
LEGISLATORS DRAW UP RIVAL SPENDING PLANS via Gary Fineout of The Associated Press — The Florida House and Florida Senate on Friday released their official budget proposals for the coming year. … The House budget is nearly $80 billion, while the Senate spending plan is about $1 billion more. Both budget proposals are higher than Scottproposed. Here are a few highlights of the two budgets as they are currently proposed:
— Tax cuts: Scott has made a tax-cut package one of his main priorities this session. The House has rolled out a tax-cut package that would total nearly $1 billion. The cuts would not kick in right away but instead would take effect over a 2-year period. The Senate has yet to offer up its own tax cut package. But top senators have suggested they may roll back property taxes instead of endorsing some of the business-oriented tax cuts proposed by the House.
— Pay raises: The House and Senate budgets currently do not include any across-the-board pay raises for state employees. But the budgets do include targeted pay raises for specific employees such as state firefighters. Scott vetoed a similar budget request last year. The Senate has proposed raises for employees who work in Florida’s prisons. [Andy] Gardiner has said the Legislature may still consider setting a pay raise for all state workers.
— Economic development: Another top priority for Scott is the creation of a $250 million fund that he can use to recruit businesses to move to Florida. The Senate has included the money in its proposed budget, but the House has not.
— Health care: The Legislature is not considering Medicaid expansion again this year. But the Senate is still proposing spending more on health care than the House. Some of the differences include how much money should be set aside for hospitals as well as providing money to pay for health coverage for immigrant children who are in the country legally.
STATE LOOKS POISED TO TOP RECORD SCHOOL FUNDING MARK, WITH HOUSE FOLLOWING RICK SCOTT, SENATE’S LEAD via John Kennedy of the Palm Beach Post — Local taxpayers, however, continue to shoulder most of the increase. With property values rising, homeowners and businesses are paying more school taxes — and that’s where lawmakers are finding the extra cash. The House proposal would bring average per-pupil funding up $124.24 over this year, to $7,232 for each of Florida’s 2.8 million school kids. That’s a 1.75 percent boost. Scott called for public school funding allowing for an average $7,221 per-pupil spending That would top by $95 the previous, pre-recession record reached during 2007-08 when then-Republican Charlie Crist was governor. Scott vowed to top the record during his 2014 re-election campaign against Crist. But Scott and lawmakers fell short last spring, renewing efforts to hit that target before lawmakers go before voters again this fall.
SENATE BUDGET ELIMINATES DIRECT FUNDING FOR YOUTH MENTORING via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics — Joe Negron … told his colleagues last month in an acceptance speech for his upcoming Senate presidency that the state must do more for its troubled children and teens. Most experts agree that after-school mentoring programs, such as those offered by Big Brothers Big Sisters, are effective at helping kids, especially those at risk, to succeed in school and develop social skills. But the Florida Senate, in its proposed $80.9 billion budget for next year, seemingly has gone to a “dog-eat-dog” approach, telling the state’s mentoring programs that to get funding, they’ll have to fight for it among themselves. The Senate budget … essentially zeros out funding for individual providers and instead creates a $30 million “competitive grants” program where organizations will have to apply. Under the Senate plan, money will be awarded by a committee of members appointed by … Scott, Senate President Andy Gardiner, House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, and could include Education Commissioner Pam Stewart and other top officials.
SENDING A MESSAGE? HOUSE AND SENATE BUDGET PLANS REJECT GOVERNOR SCOTT’S REQUEST FOR ADDITIONAL PRISON STAFF via Mary Ellen Klas of the Miami Herald — The governor’s first draft of his budget … asked for $28 million to hire 272 additional staff and provide enough money to pay overtime to allow for critical posts to be sufficiently staffed during periods of both planned and unplanned staff absences. But rather than heed those requests, the initial budget proposal from the Senate authorizes 23,892 total positions at the department — the same number authorized this budget year, but also sets aside $4.3 million in “salary incentive payments” for current employees. The House’s proposed budget gave the agency 184 additional positions, for a total of 24,076 — far short of what the agency was seeking. If the agency wants to hire more positions, both the House and Senate include identical language allowing [Department of Correction Secretary Julie] Jones to ask the Legislative Budget Commission for money to hire more staff — but only if the inmate population increases. There is no mention of dealing with existing staff shortages.
MORE BUDGET READS
— “House, Senate again budget Amendment 1 money for operating expenses” via Isadora Rangel of TCPalm
— “Education, social services top Northeast Florida House members’ budget requests” via AG Gancarski of Florida Politics
— “Southwest Florida House members make budget requests for special projects” via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster and Jim Rosica of Florida Politics
***Liberty Partners of Tallahassee, LLC, is a full-service consulting firm located just steps from the Capitol. The firm specializes in the development and implementation of successful advocacy strategies highly personalized for each client. Team Liberty is comprised of professionals with a track record of successful coalition-building, grassroots efforts and team coordination. The combination of a strong commitment to clients and practical government and private sector experience is why Fortune 500 companies and not-for-profits alike choose Liberty Partners of Tallahassee.***
SUPREME COURT FORCES LEGISLATURE’S HAND via the Lakeland Ledger — The U.S. Supreme Court has thrown the 2016 Florida Legislature two judicial curve balls. Both deal with the criminal justice system. In early January, the nation’s highest court found a provision in Florida’s death-sentencing procedure was unconstitutional. The House and Senate are now preparing bills to correct that constitutional flaw that may or may not force the state to resentence many of the state’s 390 inmates on Death Row. Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that a ban on mandatory life-without-parole sentences for juvenile killers must be applied retroactively, clarifying a 2012 ruling that prohibited the sentences. But lawmakers will not have to respond to the second ruling since they essentially addressed the issue with a juvenile sentencing reform law passed in 2014 and then amplified by subsequent state Supreme Court rulings.
HOW THE NATION’S LOWEST BAR FOR THE DEATH PENALTY HAS SHAPED DEATH ROW via Anna Phillips of the Tampa Bay Times — Florida has more than 170 people on death row today who may not have been condemned to die in any other state — the result of its one-of-a-kind law that allows a jury to recommend capital punishment by a simple majority vote … Unburdened by the need to reach a unanimous decision, Florida juries typically don’t. Two-thirds of the people Florida has executed since 1995 were condemned to die on the recommendation of fewer than 12 jurors … No other state allows juries to recommend death by a 7-5 vote. Of the 32 states that have the death penalty, 29 require a unanimous vote of 12. Alabama requires 10. Delaware calls for jurors to agree unanimously on whether the defendant is eligible for the death penalty, but their sentencing recommendation can be split. The juries’ sentencing recommendations are merely advisory, another unusual feature, but no Florida judge has ignored a jury’s guidance in nearly two decades … prisoners who were sentenced to death based on non-unanimous jury recommendations were far more likely to have their cases overturned on direct appeal, or to be ultimately acquitted. Of the 20 people who have been exonerated and for whom sentencing information is available, 15 were sent to death row by a divided jury.
HOUSE LAWYER: YES, UBER DRIVING REP. RITCH WORKMAN CAN VOTE ON RIDESHARING BILLS via Michael Auslen of the Tampa Bay Times — Workman was one of 108 House members who … approved legislation (HB 509) to prevent local governments from banning ride-sharing companies like Uber. Before he cast that vote, he asked General Counsel Matthew Carson if it would be a conflict of interest. It’s not, because the bill affects thousands of drivers for ride-sharing companies across the state, not just Driver-for-Hire/Rules Chairman Workman. “In an abundance of caution, I wanted to make sure I was following state law and House rules in participating in voting on a bill that would directly affect one of my employers,” Workman said.
LEGISLATIVE SCHEDULE HIGHLIGHTS via Legislative IQ powered by Lobby Tools
HOUSE DEBATES UBER, LYFT REGULATIONS IN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY
A proposal facing the House Local Government Affairs Subcommittee (HB 1439), co-sponsored by Plant City Republican Rep. Dan Raulerson and Majority Leader Dana Young of Tampa would create regulations for ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft in Hillsborough County. Meeting begins 11:30 a.m. in Room 212 of the Knott Building.
HOUSE PANEL CONSIDERS BANNING PROFESSIONAL STADIUM DEVELOPMENT ON PUBLIC LANDS
HB 1427, filed by Hialeah Republican Rep. Bryan Avila, is on the schedule for the House Economic Development & Tourism Subcommittee. The bill seeks to ban professional sports franchises from either building or refurbishing facilities on public land owned by either the state or local government. If passed, any government sale of land for such projects must be at fair market value. Meeting begins 12:30 p.m. in Room 12 of the House Office Building.
SENATE COMMITTEE EXAMINES HEALTH CARE REGULATIONS
Several significant health-care related bills will be taken up by the Senate Health Policy Committee, including SB 132, from Sebring Republican Sen. Denise Grimsley, which could open the door for the use of “direct primary care” agreements, bypassing insurers by allowing patients to make payments directly to doctors and other primary-care providers. The committee will also hear SB 1144, filed by Niceville Republican Sen. Don Gaetz, which seeks to permit exemptions to the “certificate of need” regulatory process, as long as there are exemptions on certain health facilities providing care to low-income residents. On the agenda is also SB 1442, filed by Hialeah Republican Sen. Rene Garcia, which would shield patients from “balance billing,” receiving unexpected bills for emergency care. Meeting starts 1:30 p.m. in Room 412 of the Knott Building.
STATE LAND MANAGEMENT, SALES DISCUSSED
HB 1075 will make an appearance in front of the House Agriculture & Natural Resources Appropriations Subcommittee. Filed by North Fort Myers Republican Rep. Matt Caldwell, the bill takes on several issues concerning the purchase, sales and management of state lands. Meeting begins 3 p.m. in Reed Hall of the House Office Building.
CORRECTIONS SECRETARY JULIE JONES CONFIRMATION HEARING
Jones, who is serving as secretary of the Florida Department of Corrections, faces a confirmation hearing before the Senate Criminal Justice Committee beginning 4 p.m. in Room 37 Senate of the Office Building.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Sebastian Aleksander: Florida Association of Special Districts
Ralph Arza: Smart Management Schools
John Aukeman: Coastal Conservation Association Florida
Brian Bautista, Impact GR: Florida Businesses for a Competitive Workforce
Doug Bell, Marnie George, Mike Harrell, Jim Magill, John “Mac” Stipanovich: Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney: Fairness in Taxation
David Browning, Southern Strategy Group: Florida Businesses for a Competitive Workforce, Palm Beach Zoo and Conservation Society
Cristal Cole: AT&T
Jon Costello, Rutledge Ecenia: ADESA Florida
Matt Doster, Doster & Associates: Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition
Chris Dudley, Southern Strategy Group: Breakthru Beverage Florida
Leslie Dughi, Fred Kaplinsky, Greenberg Traurig: American Association of Insurance Services, National Alliance of Life Companies
Thomas Dukes, Tiffany Roddenberry: Florida Justice Reform Institute
Evan Ernst: Who We Play For
Jan Gorrie, Ballard Partners: Bethesda Health, Inc.
Ken Granger, Capital City Consulting: AAJ Technologies, American Life Insurance Corporation, Careington International Corporation, Lexmark International, Memory Garden, SESCO Lighting
Robert Hawken, Leath Consulting: Florida Family Insurance Company
Paul Henry: Liberty First Network
Mark Pinto: The Fiorentino Group: Taylor Engineering
William Rubin: The Rubin Group: The Ride Group
Kathleen Russell: City of Orlando
Karen Skyers, Becker & Poliakoff: Relief of Dennis Darling Sr. & Wendy Smith, parents of DeVaughn Darling
Clark Smith, Southern Strategy Group: Palm Beach Zoo and Conservation Society
Jason Unger, GrayRobinson: RB Jai-alai, LLC
Cameron Yarbrough, Gunster: Advanced Disposal Services, Inc.
SPOTTED at the Fred Biletnikoff Awards Dinner in Tallahassee: Ramon Alexander, Taylor Biehl, Jordan Biehl, Lindsey Perkins & Skylar Zander, Natalie Kato & Tim Nungesser, Steve Winn.
***Capital City Consulting, LLC is a full-service government and public affairs firm located in Tallahassee, Florida. At Capital City Consulting, our team of professionals specialize in developing unique government relations and public affairs strategies and delivering unrivaled results for our clients before the Florida Legislature and Executive Branch Agencies. Capital City Consulting has the experience, contacts and winning strategies to help our clients stand out in the capital city. Learn more at www.capcityconsult.com.***
JUDGE ALLOWS CITY TO ENFORCE SPRING BREAK ORDINANCES via The Associated Press — A federal judge in Tallahassee has denied a request by Panama City Beach nightclub owners to delay enforcement of ordinances designed to curb spring break mayhem … U.S. District Judge Mark E. Walker ruled against the club owners … The club owners sought an injunction to keep the city from enforcing the ordinances during ongoing litigation they filed against the city. The club owners claim the city intended to target black spring breakers when it passed ordinances. The city says the laws are not racially motivated are designed to protect the safety of the community … new ordinances will be in place for spring break 2016.
FLORIDA STATE TO SELL BEER AT BASEBALL GAMES via Joe Reedy of The Associated Press — Athletic director Stan Wilcox said the school has studied the possibility of beer sales at Dick Howser Stadium for the past two years and sought input from Aramark and campus police. Wilcox said Aramark has lots of experience in on-campus alcohol sales. Like at most professional and collegiate events, beer sales will be limited. Fans will be able to purchase a total of three during any game or four during a doubleheader. Sales will stop after the sixth inning of a single game and after the sixth inning of the second game of a doubleheader. Identification will be scanned, and fans will receive an identifier that will be altered to indicate how many beers have been purchased. Beers will be $7 apiece. Fans will not be allowed to enter or exit stadium gates with beer. Wilcox said there were no plans to expand beer sales to football.
SPOTTED at Mayor Bob Buckhorn‘s tent at the Gasparilla Parade in Tampa: Bob Henriquez, Mike Suarez, Ashley Bauman, Ana Cruz, Brian Goldmeier, Mike Hamby, Cesar Fernandez, Kyle Simon. Also spotted at Gasparilla: Matt & Dana Young, Janet Cruz, Mark Ferrulo, Sydney Ridley, Anthony Pedicini.
SPOTTED at wedding of politicos Heather Manso and Clay Barker at the Marriott Bay Harbour in Fort Lauderdale: Jeff & Natalie Brandes, Jake & Melissa Raburn, Chris & Gina Spencer, Jonathan Reese and fiance Nicole Elliott, Brian Delburnand Kathy San Pedro, Rick Porter, Gretchen Picotte, Ned Hance, Taylor Ferguson and Michael Wickersheim.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY belatedly to U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, FloridaPolitics.com’s Ryan Ray, 10 News’ Garin Flowers. Celebrating today is state Sen. (and angry translator) Oscar Braynon, Hillsborough County Commissioner Kevin Beckner, and Emil Infante.
