Peter Schorsch
Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry, Ryan Ray, and Jim Rosica.
GUT CHECK: LEGILSATIVE SESSION REACHES MIDPOINT
Mind if we lead Sunburn with something other than Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio?
With the half-way mark of the 60-day 2016 Legislative Session on Wednesday, the theme so far is like a line from a Frankie Valli song: “… so close/And yet so far.”
Take the 2016-17 state budget, the only bill lawmakers are required to pass each year. The House came in at $79.9 billion with the Senate proposing $80.9 billion. Sure, that’s only a billion dollars apart, but $1 billion is still a lot of money, even in Tallahassee.
Lawmakers began talking about the state’s blueprint for spending on the floors of both chambers yesterday. After voting out their respective proposals, both sides will go into a conference process to come up with a final product to send to Gov. Rick Scott.
As to policy, both chambers are closing in on some sort of ride-booking legislation, for example, but remain apart on how to regulate those services, which include Uber and Lyft. And both chambers seem willing to do something about gambling, but don’t agree on exactly what.
But they did pass three big measures in the first week: A water protection bill that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli wanted; a bill that expands employment opportunities for individuals with disabilities, and another that increases their educational opportunities.
The latter two were priorities of Senate President Andy Gardiner, who has a son with Down syndrome. Scott signed all three.
Scott didn’t have a lot of demands on lawmakers for the yearly spending plan. In fact, he had just two: A $250 million Florida Enterprise Fund for business incentives and $1 billion in tax cuts.
The House gave Scott the tax cuts – sort of. The Finance and Tax Committee came up with a plan that’s a little less than $1 billion in tax cuts over two years. The House also didn’t honor Scott’s request to kill the corporate income tax on retailers and manufacturers.
“Some of Governor Scott’s goals have been included,” Republican state Rep. Matt Gaetz, the committee’s chairman, said last week. “I think there’s a lot of synergy, a lot of overlay. There were some ideas … that we were unable to accommodate at this time, but, you know, hope springs eternal.”
In the Senate, state Sen. Jack Latvala came around to the incentive fund, recommending it for his chamber’s budget as chair of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Economic Development.
“By taking a significant step forward to work with the governor, I hope we are improving the overall climate of his decision making,” the Clearwater Republican said last month, a not-so-subtle reference to the governor’s veto power over line items in the budget.
When asked whether his decision was more “olive branch or philosophical agreement,” Latvala said, “It’s a combination of both.”
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IF YOU READ ONE THING — STATE DATA SHOWS MORE THAN 6000 ELDERLY DIED WHILE AWAITING SERVICES via Christine Sexton of POLITICO – According to statistics provided by the Department of Elder Affairs, 6,538 people died during the 2014-2015 fiscal year while they were on a waiting list for one of four programs aimed at keeping the elderly out of nursing homes. The four programs include: Medicaid managed long-term care, the Home Care for the Elderly, Community Care for the Elderly and the Alzheimer’s Disease Initiative. The majority of the deaths — 4,590 — were awaiting services in three programs: Home Care for the Elderly, Alzheimer’s disease Initiative and Community Care for the Elderly. Nineteen percent of those who died were receiving services from a different program, said Ashley Chambers, the communications director for the DOEA. Nearly 2,000 people died while on the statewide Medicaid managed care long-term care program. Chambers said that 15 percent of those who died were being served by another program.
HOUSE BUDGET: DECISION TO CUT POSITIONS AT DEP’T OF HEALTH QUESTIONED via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster of Florida Politics – [Some] lawmakers questioned the decision to cut more than 700 positions from the Department of Health. Rep. Matt Hudson, chairman of the House Health Care Appropriations Subcommittee, said the budget eliminates 718 positions from the Department of Health’s budget. Many of those positions are vacant. The positions on the chopping block were ones that had been previously authorized by the Florida Legislature. But Hudson said the Department of Health has not taken steps to fill them. “How did we authorize 718 positions that were never filled,” said Rep. Janet Cruz … Hudson said the mission of the health department has changed, which means county health departments might not need as many positions. He also stressed that many of the positions that are being cut are vacant.
SENATE BUDGET: DON GAETZ QUESTIONED OVER MENTORING FUNDING via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – Gaetz defended his recommendation for a $30 million competitive grants program for after-school mentoring instead of direct funding … he wanted to save nonprofits on “expensive lobbying and the anguish of the Legislative Session … We shouldn’t have to put those people through that” … referring to being left out of the budget. His subcommittee “felt that (by) taking it out of a politicized, lobbying-intensive process, and making it more of an analysis of return on investment, it might provide a better shot for the programs,” he said. But the state’s nonprofit child welfare organizations, including the Boys and Girls Clubs and Big Brothers Big Sisters, have said the proposal will unfairly pit those and other groups against each other for money, with no guarantees that long-standing programs will be funded.
CHANCES SLIM FOR OPEN CARRY BILL via Katie Bergen of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Unimpressed by House members who amended Rep. Matt Gaetz’ open-carry bill to let licensed lawmakers carry concealed weapons in legislative meetings … Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Miguel Díaz de la Portilla said the chances were slim that he would schedule the bill in his committee. “It’s not looking really good for open carry unless some agreement surfaces that provides for some safeguards that you don’t have a Wild Wild West situation with people walking down the streets of, say Miracle Mile or International Drive or Brickell, like they are walking to the O.K. Corral.”
HOUSE, SENATE REMAIN AT ODDS OVER HOW TO FIX DEATH PENALTY LAW via Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times – The House Judiciary Committee passed a bill (HB 7101) that makes several changes to the law to bring the state into compliance with last month’s U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated the state’s sentencing law because judges, not juries, make the final decisions to warrant the death penalty. That narrowly-crafted decision, Hurst vs. Florida, did not address jury unanimity, but the issue is dominating political debate in Tallahassee. The 18-member committee rejected an amendment by Democratic Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez … that would have required future juries in capital cases to be unanimous in recommending death. That requirement is in a Senate death penalty bill (SB 7068), putting the two chambers at odds in the major criminal justice issue of the 2016 session. Both bills are now ready for floor votes, and both houses must agree on a new law and Scott must sign it for executions to resume.
RICK SCOTT REMAINS MUM ON HOW TO FIX STATE’S DEATH PENALTY via Gary Fineout and Joe Reedy of the Associated Press – With Florida’s death penalty law in limbo due to a U.S. Supreme Court ruling … [And] legislators are hearing from the families of murder victims … Scott has remained mum. Since the U.S. future we Supreme Court ruled nearly a month ago Scott has not made any recommendations and … said that he won’t weigh in until state legislators send him a bill. “The Legislature has not gotten me a bill yet,” said Scott, who has conducted the most executions under a single governor since the death penalty was reinstated in Florida in 1979. “When the Legislature gets me a bill I’ll be glad to review it.”
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CHILD SHARING BILL ADVANCES IN THE SENATE via Dylan Prior of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Under the bill (SB 250), if time with a child is not equally divided among the parents, the court order must include written findings justifying its decision. While current law already provides a list of factors regarding the welfare and interests of the child for the court to apply in determining or modifying timesharing, the new bill would assert that those factors will also be used to determine whether a case does not require equal timesharing. The bill will also require that courts consider the amount of timesharing requested by each parent and the frequency that a parent would likely leave the child with a nonrelative when the other parent would be willing to provide care. A major focus of discussion was the impact of the bill’s provisions on children and whether they would benefit as much as the parents.
SENATE PASSES PENSION BILL INSPIRED BY SLAIN ORANGE COUNTY DEPUTY via Gray Rohrer of the Orlando Sentinel – The bill, SB 7012, would increase the pension benefits of surviving spouses of law enforcement, firefighter and other first-responder personnel from 50 percent of monthly pay to 100 percent of monthly pay. It also would allow surviving beneficiaries of officers who chose the investment plan 90 days to opt for the defined benefit pension plan. The bill would apply to first responders killed after 2013, which includes [Scott] Pine and three others … Because the constitution requires the Legislature to increase state pension contributions when it increases required benefits, the bill also sets aside $6.5 million to help pay for the additional benefits.
BILL GIVING RAISE TO COUNTY ELECTIONS OFFICIALS HEADS TO SENATE FLOOR via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster of Florida Politics – The Senate Fiscal Policy committee OK’d a proposal changing the calculation used to determine how much a county’s election boss is paid. The measure (SB 514), sponsored by Sen. Garrett Richter, increases the base salary and the group rate used to determine a supervisor of elections salary. The change puts the group rate used to calculate a supervisor of elections’ salary in line with the group rate used to calculate other county constitutional officers’ salaries. The base salary would be in line with the base salary used to for elected clerks, comptrollers, property appraisers and tax collectors. According to a Senate staff analysis, the bill would lead to $1.2 million in salary increases statewide. That equals out to an average increase of $18,540 per county.
PROPOSAL TO DEFUND PLANNED PARENTHOOD ON TRACK DESPITE DEMOCRATS’ OBJECTIONS via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster of Florida Politics – House Republicans shot down a request that would have allowed the Department of Health and the Agency for Health Care Administration to continue contracting with Planned Parenthood for women’s health services. The request came after nearly two hours of discussion, much of which was directed to the Planned Parenthood language, on the House’s proposed health care budget … The state House voted 36-72 on the amendment, offered by House Minority Leader Mark Pafford. The health care budget singles out Planned Parenthood, a reproductive health provider, and says no money set aside for the Agency for Health Care Administration or Department of Health “may be provided to Planned Parenthood … directly or indirectly.”
NEW FRAUD TRIAL FOR DAPHNE CAMPBELL’S SON PROMPTS OUTBURST ON HOUSE FLOOR via Marc Caputo of POLITICO – An appeals court on Wednesday ordered a new Medicaid fraud trial for the son of state Rep. Daphne Campbell after determining a judge didn’t allow the jury that convicted him to deliberate properly. … When she learned her son’s appeal had succeeded, Campbell was so overjoyed that she started yelling that her son had been “exonerated” and praised Jesus so loudly on the floor of the state House of Representatives that proceedings were stopped briefly.
She could also be heard yelling “my Jesus, it was one vote. They did this to me, it was one vote. I am vindicated.” … Other lawmakers said her fellow Miami state Rep. Carlos Trujillo, a Republican and former prosecutor, informed Campbell her son had not been cleared, but that the Third District Court of Appeal had simply reversed the charges and remanded the case back to the Miami-Dade County court for a new trial.
HOUSE COMMITTEE APPROVES BILL SHIFTING COSTS TO MOVE UTILITY LINES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS via Florida Politics – [The bill seeks] to shift the cost of relocating utility lines for infrastructure improvements from utilities to public entities. In some cases, the costs would be absorbed by the Florida Department of Transportation. HB 461, filed by … Rep. Clay Ingram, came after an opinion by the 2nd District Court of Appeals which said under common law, utilities located on public easements must pay for relocating equipment to accommodate roads and other infrastructure projects. Florida League of Cities representative Megan Sirjane-Samples told the committee that her organization’s opposition to the bill was because of the possibility that municipalities would be forced to raise property taxes to deal with “unfunded mandates.” AT&T lobbyist Tracy Hatch testified the law was correcting a ruling that “has cast a pall upon private property.”
HOUSE PANEL OKAYS MIAMI-DADE NEEDLE EXCHANGE PROGRAM via Michael Auslen of the Tampa Bay Times – [After] being stalled for months, the House Judiciary Committee approved legislation (HB 81) by Rep. Katie Edwards, [which] allows the University of Miami to start a five-year pilot program through which people can exchange used needles for clean ones. The hope is to cut sharing needles between drug users, thereby reducing rates of infection. “What we see every day in Miami would be considered a public health emergency anywhere else,” Chanelle Diaz, a fourth-year medical student at UM, told lawmakers. Florida leads the nation for new cases of HIV with the number of infections rising each year, even as it drops nationwide. The problem is most severe in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, which have the highest rates of new infections per 100,000 residents of any area in the country.
HILLSBOROUGH PTC CHIEF TELLS HOUSE COMMITTEE HE STILL WANTS RIDE-SHARE DRIVERS FINGERPRINTED via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – Kyle Cockream came before the House Economics Committee to speak in support of the bill, sponsored by Dana Young … and Dan Raulerson. Young told the committee that it’s substantially similar to a bill proposed by Matt Gaetz that overwhelmingly passed the entire House earlier in the session. The local bill provides for background checks, insurance and vehicle inspections. And it includes two provisions that would allow for low-speed circulators to operate in downtown Tampa. Cockream did say that he opposes the fact that the Gaetz bill only calls for a Level 1 background check for ridesharing drivers. He wants a Level 2 background check, which would require all ridesharing drivers to get fingerprinted. “A Level 2 background check is the only background check that looks to the future,” Cockream told lawmakers. “Once a person has their fingerprints put into the system, should they get into trouble in the state of Florida anywhere, the local regulators are then alerted to that issue.”
AFTER PUSHBACK, JAX PENSION TAX BILL CLEARS FINAL HOUSE COMMITTEE via AG Gancarski of Florida Politics – This was the second and final House committee to be cleared; the “discretionary sales surtax” bill has already cleared two of three Senate committees. The bill passed committee after an hour of spirited debate, which included bill sponsor Travis Cummings making repeated references to how “embarrassing” it was that Jacksonville was in this position because of the “awful decisions of the past” regarding its “tremendous pension liability.” And which included Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, in selling a bill that he described as “the best in a series of bad options,” talking about the “dire” situation in Jacksonville, related to “bad decisions…” made “way before my time.”
PROPOSAL WOULD OVERHAUL ARCANE COSMETIC MANUFACTURING RULES via Florida Politics – To many businesses and consumers alike, Tallahassee is known for a laissez-faire approach to industry, where low taxes and a light regulatory touch spring eternal. Not so when it comes to manufacturing cosmetics, where state regulators have thrown the proverbial book at firms which have failed to comply with unusually strict mandates. Industry advocates say the state’s regulatory regime when it comes to cosmetic products – including an biennial registry and permitting process on every product, complete with fees – is “unnecessary and burdensome.” A manufacturer that moved his cosmetics firm to Florida and has since left called it “simply too expensive and onerous.” A pair of bills is now circulating in the Legislature to reform those rules, so far gaining moderate traction in both Houses.
IT’S JEFF BRANDES DAY AT THE CAPITOL — A day before his birthday, Brandes has a busy day today with six – count ’em – six bills up in committee. What’s more, the St. Petersburg Republican will present them in four different committees, all of which are running at the same time: 10 a.m. to noon. In the Appropriations Subcommittee on Criminal and Civil Justice, he’s got SB 1044 on civil forfeiture reform and SB 1256, which offers alternative sanctioning for minor violations of parolees. In the Appropriations Subcommittee on Education, Brandes has SB 800, dealing with oversight and accountability of private colleges and universities. Moving to Appropriations Subcommittee on General Government, he will present SB 326, a proposal for Florida to develop a fleet management system and SB 992, the Department of Financial Services legislative package for 2016-17. Finally, in the Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Tourism, and Economic Development, he’ll offer SB 1394, the highway safety package. That’s not mentioning SB 756, the Department of Transportation bill up on special order in the afternoon floor session. If you’re following at home, stay tuned to the Florida Channel to see how he juggles all this.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Volunteer Florida will present Volunteer Florida Champion of Service Awards to Sen. John Legg, Sen. Gwen Margolis, and Rep. Marlene O’Toole at a ceremony starting 12 p.m. on the Fourth Floor Rotunda. The Volunteer Florida Champion of Service Award is Florida’s official statewide volunteer and community service award, honoring individuals and groups for their outstanding volunteer efforts.
WHAT DEAN CANNON IS READING — WATCHDOGS DENOUNCE NO-BID PRISON CONTRACT via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat – The Florida Department of Corrections last month contracted with Centurion of Florida to provide prison health care in the north and central regions of the state, following a decision last November by Corizon Healthcare, the previous provider in those areas, to bow out early from its contract. … And while the department negotiated with several different vendors to fill the gap left by Corizon’s departure, it did not go through a formal competitive process before contracting with Centurion. One of the companies involved in the negotiations, Wexford Health Sources, which provides health care to inmates in South Florida, notified the agency last week it intends to file a bid protest.
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— BACK TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TRAIL —
TWEET, TWEET: @SaintPetersblog: Charleston bound on Monday to hit the trail
CARLY FIORINA DROPS OUT via the Associated Press – The 61-year-old drew positive reviews for several strong debate performances, in which she promoted her business expertise and argued that as the lone woman in the GOP field she was best positioned to oppose likely Democratic nominee Clinton. But she struggled to build support in a crowded primary field and her poll numbers lagged. Fiorina struggled with criticism of her time at Hewlett-Packard, where she was ousted from the top job in 2005, after leading a major merger and laying off 30,000 people.
— “The ill-timed and unremarkable presidential campaign of Chris Christie” via Janell Ross of The Washington Post
JUMBLED GOP FIELD HOPES FOR SURVIVAL IN SOUTH CAROLINA via Bill Barrow and Josh Lederman of the Associated Press – A muddled field of Republican presidential contenders descended … on South Carolina, no closer to clarity about who can stand between Trump and their party’s nomination. To the dismay of party leaders, all signs point to a drawn-out battle for delegates … Rubio, under immense pressure to prove himself after a devastating fifth-place finish, was looking for a fight that could last for months or even spill into the first contested GOP national convention since 1976. “We very easily could be looking at May — or the convention,” Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan told The Associated Press … Cruz, the conservative firebrand and victor in the leadoff Iowa caucuses, returned to the center of the fracas after largely sitting out New Hampshire. He drew contrasts with Trump as he told a crowd of 500 in Myrtle Beach that Texans and South Carolinians are more alike than not. “We love God, we’re gun owners, military veterans and we’re fed up with what’s happening in Washington,” Cruz said. Almost all the Republicans have spent months building complex campaigns and blanketing airwaves in South Carolina, which heralds the start of the GOP campaign’s foray into the South. The state, with its array of conservative GOP voters, will test Trump and the others in new ways. Having courted social conservatives in Iowa and moderates in New Hampshire, the candidates face an electorate infused with evangelical, pro-business and military-minded flavors. Rubio’s campaign has looked forward to the state. Yet his path grew far trickier after a fifth-place New Hampshire letdown, which terminated talk of Republican leaders quickly uniting behind him as the strongest alternative to “outsiders” Trump and Cruz. Kasich, whose second-place showing was New Hampshire’s primary stunner, the task was to convert newfound interest into support in a state ideologically distant from his native Ohio. With a minimal South Carolina operation compared to his rivals, Kasich must work quickly. Already, more than $32 million has been spent on TV ads here …. much of it by Right to Rise, the PAC backing Bush. Though he placed fourth on Tuesday, Bush was hoping that Rubio’s slump would forestall his own ouster from the race … he said voters in New Hampshire “pushed the pause button” on anointing any candidate — and turned to his brother, George W. Bush, for help.
— “Five things Iowa and New Hampshire taught us about the presidential race” via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times
MARCO RUBIO OPENS UP ON JEB BUSH, DONALD TRUMP, CHRIS CHRISTIE AND DEBATING AFTER POOR NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOWING via Sean Sullivan of the Washington Post – The senator from Florida, who is coming off a disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire and has been accused of being too guarded and scripted, seemed to be in search of catharsis, opening up to reporters for a more extended period than he ever has in his campaign. “I think the lesson is, look, when you’re asked a question like that no matter how much you want to avoid an in intra-party fight, you’re going to have to deal with it frontally,” Rubio said of the criticism he faced over his repetition of talking points in Saturday’s Republican presidential debate. Rubio declined to set expectations for the Feb. 20 South Carolina primary, beyond saying, “I want to do well.” He said that he didn’t expect the nomination fight to be decided in the next couple of states, or even by March 1. Rubio said he has “more experience” than Bush on “foreign policy and national security.” And he highlighted Bush’s heavy investment in New Hampshire. “He basically lived there,” Rubio quipped. Notably, Rubio did not attack Kasich, who finished second on Tuesday and is expected to compete with Bush for support. “I like John. I think he did very well yesterday,” Rubio said.
MOST RIDICULOUS TAKE OF THE DAY: “Rubio’s whole career probably ended last night” via Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo
RUBIO ADDS “LONG LIST OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS” IN STATE HOUSE TO CAMPAIGN WEBSITE via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – Apparently, Team Rubio realizes [his] vulnerability because a new post has appeared on the campaign’s website: “Marco Had a Long Record of Accomplishment in the Florida House.” The section refers to how as House Speaker in 2006-2007 Rubio “balanced the budget without raising taxes,” and passed budgets with less spending than then-Gov. Charlie Crist or the Florida Senate wanted. It lists his 100 percent ratings from the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business, as well as a quote from anti-tax activist Grover Norquist saying Rubio was “the most pro-taxpayer legislative leader in the country.” When he was House Speaker, Rubio published a book called “100 Innovative Ideas for Florida’s Future.” The site lists how he was able to implement some of those ideas during his tenure, including those on eminent domain, higher education, K-12 education, crime, small government and government transparency, and executive power.
NARAL SLAMS RUBIO ON ABORTION RIGHTS via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – “While Senator Rubio’s legislative record may be thin, his priorities are crystal clear,” said Joel Foster, national political director of NARAL Pro-Choice America. “He’d deny abortion to all Americans, even those who are survivors of rape and incest. While Rubio may try to portray himself as some sort of new generation of Republican, his position on abortion is from the dark ages and is far more extreme than even many of his Republican colleagues. Rubio has made his priorities clear. But the facts are clear, seven in 10 Americans believe abortion should be legal and Marco Rubio’s priorities are not America’s priorities.” [Rubio] has startled some political observers for his stance against any and all abortions, including for survivors of rape and incest.
JEB BUSH SAYS GOAL IS TO BE ‘ALTERNATIVE’ TO DONALD TRUMP IN SOUTH CAROLINA via Bloomberg Politics – “I’m focused on what I can do to be able to become the alternative to Donald Trump” … Bush tells CNN on his strategy for Feb. 20 South Carolina primary. Bush said yesterday’s N.H. primary has “reset the race.”
BUSH ATTACKS JOHN KASICH ON MEDICAID EXPANSION via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics– On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Bush began laying out the case why he should be the conservative choice over Kasich. “A conservative needs to win the conservative party’s nomination, and I’m the most conservative governor and most conservative candidate with a proven record in the field right now, and that’s my case,” he said. Right to Rise … began airing an ad in New Hampshire critical of Kasich’s record and past statements … the enmity goes both ways. ABC News reported … that Kasich supporters making phone calls on behalf of their candidate were instructed in their scripts to criticize Bush.
JEB BUSH SUPER PAC IS POURING $1.7 MILLION MORE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA via Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post – Right to Rise USA is pouring another $1.7 million into the Palmetto State in the next 10 days on top of the more than $10 million the group has already spent in the state … The money will be spent primarily on television, radio and digital advertising. The cash infusion is coming as the PAC is postponing the start of ad buys in seven states holding contests in March. Right to Rise currently has two ads in heavy rotation in South Carolina. The first stars former president George W. Bush touting his brother’s record. The second ad attacks Rubio for a lack of legislative accomplishments. A similar version of that ad aired in New Hampshire in the closing days of the primary there.
GEORGE W. BUSH STARS IN NEW RADIO AD FOR JEB via Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post – Palmetto State voters getting in the car … may hear a new radio ad bought and paid for by Bush‘s presidential campaign. Here’s the script: “This is President George W. Bush. We live in troubled times with the military deployed around the world. We need a strong leader with experience, ideas and resolve. There’s no doubt in my mind that Jeb Bush will be a great commander-in-chief for our military. Jeb has dealt with crises as the governor of Florida, and he did so with steadiness, and a calmness necessary in a good leader. He respects the military – he honors their families. He can make the tough decision to keep Americans safe and our country free. And in a time of crisis, he will be a steady hand.” Then Jeb Bush chimes in, saying: “I’m the only candidate for president who’s running on my record – not away from it. And the only candidate with a real plan to defeat ISIS, balance the budget and grow our economy. I’m Jeb Bush, I’m running for president and I approved this message because I’m ready to lead.”
TWEET, TWEET: @AriFleischer: Looks like Jeb is winning the day after spin. He’s more likely than Rubio or Kasich to become 3rd man. SC is key.
FOR BUSH, HUMILIATION MADE SURVIVAL POSSIBLE via Jon Ward of Yahoo! Politics – Bush had no idea what he was getting into when he started running for president. Looking back at his campaign’s early days, it is striking how radically his fortunes have changed and how he has evolved in response. He has grown in many ways, but still remains a deeply flawed candidate who is eyed warily by many in the GOP who doubt his ability to beat Trump or Clinton. Yet thanks to Rubio’s huge debate stumble this past Saturday night, which allowed Bush to finish just barely ahead of the younger man in the New Hampshire primary, Bush’s candidacy is “not dead,” as he himself put it … It’s not clear that Bush is Lazarus, as some are saying, but those who support his candidacy say that the New Hampshire result is the first sign that he is on the way back.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Bush continues to campaign in South Carolina starting with a 1:15 p.m. Eastern meet and greet at the Venus Restaurant, 471 West Palmetto St. in Florence. Media RSVP available online here. Later, the governor will hold a 3:30 p.m. Eastern meet-and-greet at Baker’s Sweets, 1089 Alice Dr. in Sumter. Media RSVP also online here. That evening, Bush will hold a rally beginning 6:30 p.m. at the University of South Carolina Senate’s End, 316 Senate St. in Columbia. Media RSVP online here.
DON’T SLEEP ON TED CRUZ. THE NEXT FIVE WEEKS LOOK VERY, VERY GOOD FOR HIM. via Aaron Blake of the Washington Post – Cruz‘s win in the Iowa caucuses last week was, as it has been for every recent GOP Iowa winner, heavily reliant on evangelical Christians. He over-performed among this group, beating Trump 34-22 among them. Two points here. The first is that, yes, Iowa is a very evangelical state, and not every state — read: New Hampshire — has the same makeup. In fact, New Hampshire is the least religious state in the country … only about 1 in 10 residents is an evangelical. In this regard, though, the next few weeks of the GOP race look a whole lot more like Iowa than New Hampshire. And that is fantastic for Cruz. It may not shock you to see the most heavily-white-evangelical states clustered in the South. Many of them are significantly more evangelical than Iowa, where 64 percent of the GOP electorate last week was evangelical. And here is the second point: The most evangelical states are pretty heavily front-loaded in this process — thanks in large part to the “SEC Primary” on March 1.
HOW CRUZ PLANS TO WIN FLORIDA, SOUTH via AG Gancarski of Florida Politics – In a conversation in Jacksonville with his campaign chairman, Chad Sweet, a wide range of topics came up. The first question that came to mind: why, with South Carolina promising to be a free for all as it was in 2000, Cruz’s campaign chairman was in town. Sweet said that the campaign “believes in going anywhere, anytime,” and with Rubio failing in New Hampshire, the time was now to make the case to voters in Rubio’s back yard that Cruz was a “consistent conservative” and “change agent,” as opposed to Rubio, for whom “amnesty shows otherwise.” Bush, the choice of the money men in Northeast Florida, is equally problematic, and vulnerable on the issue of Common Core and other issues, to be sure. Sweet said that Cruz will make the sale “handshake by handshake,” helped along by members of his team like former Duval GOP Chair Rick Hartley, described by Sweet as one of the “Florida heavyweights” backing Cruz. And Sweet believes others will follow.
SAY WHAT? RUSH LIMBAUGH: CRUZ IS ‘THE CLOSEST IN OUR LIFETIMES WE HAVE EVER BEEN TO RONALD REAGAN’ via Steve Guest of The Daily Caller – Limbaugh suggested, “In terms of doctrinaire, understandable, articulated, implementable conservatism, there’s nobody closer,” than Cruz to Reagan. When I saw what Jeb and Kasich were doing in New Hampshire at the last minute in order to get votes, they were going left as fast as Deion Sanders can back-pedal. They were moving left faster than anybody I’ve ever seen go left. And I opened the program yesterday saying you will never ever have to worry about that with Ted Cruz.”
JOHN KASICH MAKES UPBEAT PITCH TO SC VOTERS via Jeremy Fugleberg of USA TODAY – Kasich maintained a sunny demeanor as he campaigned in South Carolina … The Ohio governor maintained the positive message that is increasingly defining his presidential campaign … the morning after his second-place finish in the New Hampshire Republican primary … “I am not going to run for president pitting one group against the other, I’m not going to run for president by having a negative message,” he told a town hall crowd. “Because I want the spirit of this country to be restored.”
FUNNY OR DIE MADE A DONALD TRUMP BIOPIC, STARRING JOHNNY DEPP via Brooks Barnes of the New York Times – The humor website … began streaming a 50-minute comedy that finds Depp portraying the businessman turned politician, full-blown comb-over and all. Kept a secret for months — no small task in Hollywood — “Funny or Die Presents Donald Trump’s The Art of the Deal: The Movie” was released to coincide with Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. “It was a crazy, completely nuts idea that somehow we pulled off,” said Adam McKay, a co-founder of Funny or Die … added that the site’s newest skewering of Mr. Trump will “with any luck” annoy the presidential hopeful. “The Art of the Deal,” which takes its title from Mr. Trump’s 1987 best-selling business advice book, may establish a new Hollywood genre: the fake television movie of the week. As a narrator (the director Ron Howard, playing himself) tells viewers at its start, the movie was made in the 1980s and had Trump as its writer-producer-director-star. But a football game went into overtime, and so an angry Trump ordered the prime-time special pulled and forever tucked away in a vault.
***In Marion County alone, the horse industry’s annual economic impact is $2.62 billion and nearly 20,000 jobs—completely dwarfing any Seminole Compact estimates. Totally opposed by horsemen, the “partial decoupling” plan now in play would put horsemen on forced welfare with an artificial “set aside purse pool,” wiping out free enterprise and Florida’s ability to compete for horse racing business with other states. United Florida Horsemen want legislators to know that “Partial Decoupling” is being peddled by casino-only interests, the goal of which is to channel money directly into their corporate bottom lines that would have normally been circulated into Florida’s economy.***
DEBATE NIGHT IN AMERICA — Two nights after Bernie Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton by 22 percentage points in New Hampshire – the biggest margin in a contested New Hampshire Democratic primary in decades – the two will tangle tonight in the 6th Democratic presidential debate tonight in Milwaukee.
Undoubtedly Sanders will be going into the debate with renewed confidence. His campaign announced Wednesday afternoon that he had raised $5.2 million from 150,000 contributions from people around the country in just 18 hours that he had announce his campaign website address during his victory speech.
Meanwhile, Clinton may want to just forget Tuesday night as quickly as possible. The exit polls were brutal from New Hampshire. She lost women 55 percent to 44 percent, got killed by independents 72-25, and fell short with every age group except those 65 and older.
The debate will be broadcast on PBS at 9 p.m. eastern, with NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff moderating from the Helen Bader Concert Hall on the main campus of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
THE BIGGEST WINNER FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE WAS HILLARY CLINTON via Leon Wolf of RedState.com – Let’s make one thing clear: Clintondoes not give a crap about Bernie Sanders, or about losing this election [Tuesday night] … Sanders wins one group of voters in the Democrat party: white liberals. Moving forward through Super Tuesday, those voters will be extremely hard to find. Clinton is going to beat Sanders by 30 points in South Carolina and probably by about as much in Nevada. Super Tuesday will feature a bunch of Southern states that Sanders is going to lose his shirt in. This was the first, and last, primary that Sanders will win (or even come close to winning). Clinton is already looking forward to the general election, as she should. She knows good and well that she will likely lose that contest against any contestant not named Donald Trump. It’s not just that Trump polls the weakest against her out of anyone in the field (although he does) – it’s the more important metric (at this point of the race) of favorability. Clinton’s unfavorability rating right now is at 52 percent, which is absolutely unprecedented for an expected nominee of one of the two major parties … The one and only exception to that rule would be if the nominee in question was running against someone who’s unfavorability rating of a whopping 60 percent, as Trump is. There is absolutely no one Hillary wants to face more – including Ben Carson – than Trump.
CLINTON TO HIRE FORMER OBAMA DEPUTY CAMPAIGN MANAGER via Andrea Mitchell And Alex Seitz-Wald of NBC News – Clinton’s first staff addition post New Hampshire will be formalizing a role for highly regarded former Obama 2012 deputy campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon. O’Malley Dillon works for Precision Strategies and in 2009 served as executive director of the Democratic National Committee under then-Chairman Sen. Tim Kaine. In 2008, she was Obama’s battleground states director for his general election campaign.
BERNIE SANDERS BECOMES SILICON VALLEY FAVORITE via Don Reisinger of Fortune Magazine – During the last quarter of 2015, Bernieraised approximately $105,000 from employees working at the five largest technology companies in Silicon Valley … Clinton pulled in about $95,000 from workers at the same companies. It was the first time Sanders outdrew Clinton in Silicon Valley donations, dealing yet another blow to the Democratic presidential candidate, who lost to Sanders on Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary. That Silicon Valley is starting to take Sanders more seriously could prove even more troublesome to the Clinton campaign, which has relied heavily upon technology companies to boost her fundraising.
SANDERS RAISES $5.2 MILLION SINCE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY via the Associated Press – Sanders‘ presidential campaign says it has raised $5.2 million in less than a day since the polls closed in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. Sanders told supporters after his resounding victory over Clinton in the primary that he was “going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now, across America.” His campaign says the total is the most Sanders has raised in less than a day. The average donation since Sanders’ speech is $34. Sanders raised $20 million in January, with most of it coming online and pulled in $3 million in the day after he narrowly lost the Iowa caucuses.
DEMOCRATS MAY HAVE AN ENTHUSIASM PROBLEM IN 2016 via Philip Bump of the Washington Post – [One] of the weirder things about the Iowa caucuses was that Sanders‘s supporters, those big crowds of people shouting and finishing his sentences, didn’t turn out as heavily as you might expect. Young people turned out much less heavily than they did for the 2008 caucuses, according to entrance polling, as did less wealthy voters (acknowledging that there’s overlap between those groups). Very liberal voters turned out more, but that may have been in part thanks to the party itself moving to the left. When New Hampshire rolled around, same deal. Sanders won big, but the number of people voting this year was lower. The Republicans had more voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire than did the Democrats.
***Mark your calendar! Join us at The Edison on February 11 for Pancakes at the Park to celebrate the half-way mark of session. Make a donation to enjoy delicious pancakes from 7-10 a.m., served by city, county, and state elected officials. All donations benefit the Foundation of Leon County Schools.***
DEBBIE MAYFIELD ENDORSES REBECCA NEGRON – Mayfield, a Vero Beach Republican, is supporting Negron in her bid for Florida’s 18th Congressional District. “I believe Rebecca Negron is the best candidate in the race for Congressional District 18 to serve our Treasure Coast in Washington,” Mayfield said. “If elected, I know she will work tirelessly on the issues that matter most to our communities – she will fight Common Core, she will make our economy stronger while protecting our consumers, and she will ensure our government is run efficiently. I encourage you to vote for a conservative that has the background and passion to make our Treasure Coast the best it can be, and that is Rebecca Negron.”
ALAN HAYS FILES TO RUN FOR LAKE COUNTY SUPERVISOR OF ELECTIONS via Scott Powers of Orlando Rising – Hays, who still could run for a two-year term in the Florida Senate, filed instead to replace a legend in Lake County, Supervisor Emogene W. Stegall, who has run the elections office there for 44 years, and worked in the office for 14 years before that. Stegall, 89, announced her retirement last fall, saying she would step down at the end of this term. Hays, a Republican whose Senate District 11 covers all of Lake County plus parts of Orange, Sumter and Marion counties, said he decided to run locally this year because he believes his 12 years in the Legislature and “almost 30 years running my own business” has qualified him for what is an administrative office. And he wants to stay home closer to his grandchildren. Beyond that, he said he was attracted to the non-partisan nature of a supervisor of elections office.
DENNIS BAXLEY ANNOUNCES SENATE RUN FOR DEPARTING HAYS’ SEAT via Gray Rohrer of the Orlando Sentinel – A few hours after … Hays … announced he wouldn’t run for re-election … Baxley … announced he’s running for Hays’ seat. “I’ve been in a planning mode, sensing that I needed to try to put my experience here (in the House) . . . to work in the Senate,” Baxley [said]. … Baxley, a legislative veteran having served two different stints in the House totaling 12 years, had filed to run for District 5, but opted instead for Hays’ District 12 seat. He filed paperwork with the state to make the switch.
TWEET, TWEET: @Jason_Garcia: Rep. Jennifer Sullivan could run for Hays’ seat, throwing another wrinkle into the Eisnaugle-Sprowls speaker race.
DEAN ASHER FUNDRAISING SLOWS IN JAN., MIKE CLELLAND HAULS BIG FOR FIRST MONTH IN SD 13 via our new website Orlando Rising – Asher’s January … numbers flatlined compared … Clelland’s first-month haul in the Senate District 13 race. Asher responded to Clelland’s $210,000 January with just $7,050 in contributions, which were offset by $3,700 in expenditures. His political committee, Allegiant Friends for Florida, opened the year with a goose egg. Asher’s campaign started with a bang back in 2014, with a string of solid five-figure months and some significant donations to his committee from real estate industry groups. The last few months have been slow, though, with just over $15,000 raised since October. The first-time candidate still holds the finance lead overall.
ERIC EISNAUGLE RAISES MORE THAN $20,000 IN JAN. FOR HD 44 REELECTION via Orlando Rising – Eisnaugle raised $14,000 through his campaign account and added another $6,350 through his PAC, Committee for Justice and Economic Freedom. Heading into February, the Orange County representative had just shy of $260,000 cash-on-hand in both accounts. The incumbent’s only competition so far is former Florida Squeeze writer David Trotter, who entered the race in December more to jab the Florida Democratic Party for not running a candidate than to oppose Eisnaugle. Trotter hasn’t posted any contributions since filing, and he doesn’t live in the district, making him ineligible for the seat.
INCUMBENT MIKE MILLER INCREASES FUNDRAISING LEAD OVER CHALLENGERS IN HD 47 RACE via Orlando Rising – Miller increased his lead over his three Democratic challengers for House District 47 last month, while neighboring HD 49 is still only sporting a single candidate. Miller brought in $14,985 in January and only spent $826, leaving him with just over $79,000 on-hand in his reelection campaign. The 23 January contributions included 10 maximum contributions of $1,000, three of which came from companies owned by Pensacola-based Gulf Coast Health Care. The first-term representative’s campaign account is still far ahead of his three Democratic challengers, attorney Henry Lim, TV production professional Beth Tuura and Clint Curtis, who is best known for accusing former U.S. Rep. Tom Feeney of election rigging.
***Liberty Partners of Tallahassee, LLC, is a full-service consulting firm located just steps from the Capitol. The firm specializes in the development and implementation of successful advocacy strategies highly personalized for each client. Team Liberty is comprised of professionals with a track record of successful coalition-building, grassroots efforts and team coordination. The combination of a strong commitment to clients and practical government and private sector experience is why Fortune 500 companies and not-for-profits alike choose Liberty Partners of Tallahassee.***
FLORIDIAN PARTNERS EXPANDS TO WASHINGTON UNDER DIRECTION OF FORMER KENDRICK MEEK AIDE via Alex Leary of the Tampa Bay Times – Prime Strategies is an extension of Floridian Partners, a lobbying firm with a presence in Tallahassee and south Florida. It will offer “business consulting, public relations, crisis management, global affairs and government relations services with a national and international reach” … The Washington office will be managed by Adam Sharon, who most recently served as Democratic communications director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He held the same role in the House and in 2006-10 worked for U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek and on Meek’s 2010 U.S. Senate campaign.
MIKE HARIDOPOLOS “SAD AND DISAPPOINTING,” FRANK TSAMOUTALES’ LAWYER SAYS via Florida Politics – A lawyer for lobbyist Tsamoutales said former Florida Senate President Haridopolos‘ countersuit in an ongoing breach of contract dispute is “baseless … It is just sad and disappointing that after having been treated for years with nothing but kindness and generosity that Mike Haridopolos is now making these baseless claims for money he did not earn and is not owed,” attorney Douglas Marks wrote in an email … Tsamoutales sued Haridopolos on a fraud and contract breach complaint, saying Haridopolos “trad(ed) on his former political positions to receive large sums of money” instead of “performing meaningful work.” Haridopolos responded in kind with a lawsuit against Tsamoutales that his former friend never paid him for the lobbying work he did. Untrue, Marks said.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Bobby Brantley, Shutts & Bowen: Florida Life Care Residents Association; Swire Properties
Charles Cliburn, New Capitol IT: Advizex; Century Link
Raymond Christman: Trust for Public Land
Daniel DeLisi, DeLisi: Martin County
Neal Dupree: Capital Collateral Regional Counsel-South
Michael Hansen: Florida Council for Behavioral Healthcare
Michelle McKay, T.B. Consultants: Tidewell Health Systems
Brad Nail: Uber Technologies
Randy Osborne: Florida Eagle Forum
Jack Peeples, The Peeples Group: Hialeah, Inc.
Ken Pruitt, P5 Group: Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office
Paul Sanford, Paul P. Sanford: MCNA Dental Plans
GOVERNORS CLUB THURSDAY BUFFET MENU: The last buffet of the workweek offers a smorgasbord of tasty treats, including Crab and Corn Chowder, Cold Cut Wrap Board with Chips (Turkey & Cheddar, Ham & Swiss); Mix Green Salad Bar with toppings; Chicken salad & tuna salad; Grilled Beef & Blue Flank Steaks with Blue Cheese Sauce; Snapper Vera Cruz; Chicken Georgia with Mushroom Demi; Pork Schnitzel; Californian Mixed Vegetable Blend; Roasted Three Potatoes Medley, and, of course, Assorted Mini Desserts.
TWITTER TWEAKS ITS TIMELINE IN PURSUIT OF MORE USERS via Michael Liedtke of the Associated Press – The change … moves Twitter closer to a formula that Facebook uses to determine the order of posts appearing in its users’ news feeds. It’s a risky move for Twitter because it threatens to infuriate many of its 320 million users who like things the way they are. But the company can’t afford to stand pat with its user growth slowing dramatically and its stock price plummeting by more than 50 percent since co-founder Jack Dorsey returned as CEO last summer. Like Facebook, Twitter is shifting to a sorting system that relies on algorithms to track which tweets seem to matter most to individual users. Based on that analysis, Twitter will begin featuring tweets that it believes will be most likely to capture a user’s interest at the top of the timeline.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio’s spot, Alex Conant, First Lady Ann Scott and Sen. Eleanor Sobel.
