Jax candidates leap to response on new UNF poll for mayor's race

Reaction was swift from the three candidates seeking to run City Hall as UNF posted new poll results on the Jacksonville mayor’s race.

With early voting in Jacksonville starting Monday, the poll out Thursday from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory finds incumbent Mayor Alvin Brown leading the race with support from 37% of voters.

Lenny Curry holds 25% of the vote, Bill Bishop 11%, and Omega Allen 2%. The rest of those polled — a quarter of the sample — remained undecided.

Fabien Levy, Brown’s deputy campaign manager, says the numbers are proof the mayor’s re-election strategy is paying off.

“Mayor Brown has run every race as an underdog and this election will be no different. I’ll let others play political pundit since we’re focused on getting out the vote on Election Day. However, it is interesting to see that after spending nearly $2 million and running the most negative campaign in Jacksonville history, voters are still rejecting political party boss Lenny Curry’s partisan campaign by double digits. Mayor Brown has run a positive campaign and has always put Jacksonville first, which is why voters are overwhelmingly supporting his re-election,” he said.

Brown’s job approval rating is 55%. Of the 546 likely voters polled, 44% thought Brown is a strong leader and 41% did not, with 15% unsure or unwilling to answer.

The Curry campaign, though, is quick to point out the mayor’s good approval rating isn’t translating to votes.

“The most important number in this survey is 37%,” according to an analysis by Data Targeting Research provided by Curry’s campaign. “After Alvin Brown and the Florida Democratic Party have spent nearly $2 million on his campaign to date, Brown is only pulling 37% of the vote in the March election. That is down nearly 10 points from a similar poll about 12 months ago. It cannot be overstated how bad a number 37% is for an incumbent mayor who is weeks away from facing voters and who previously enjoyed an approval rating in UNF polls higher than 70%.”

Forty-three percent of respondents classified Brown as liberal in the poll, while only 14% didn’t know or refused to place him on the 5-point scale.

On the other hand, 38% of respondents considered Curry conservative, but 49% of likely voters were unable or unwilling to place him on the ideological scale.

Meanwhile, Bill Bishop was considered a moderate by 13% of voters, while 66% were unsure.

Bishop says he’s confident he can grow his 11% into a runoff position by performing well during two upcoming televised debates.

“These poll results confirm what we have experienced over the past couple of months that our message is resonating with people,” Bishop says.  “We are more confident than ever that Team Bishop will be in the runoff election, in particular, after the scheduled debates. We know the voters are anxious to hear from the candidates in a televised debate format. On March 24, I believe they will vote for real solutions and depth of experience that I will bring to the Mayor’s office.”

Should Bishop fail to make the runoff, savvy political observers see his potential to be a North Florida kingmaker should he decide to endorse either Brown or Curry in the May 19 runoff, if one is needed.

Meanwhile, pollster Mike Binder says the results illustrate that many voters may still be up for grabs.

“Such high levels of uncertainty provide opportunities for each of the candidates to increase their vote share,” he said.

The Curry camp says that’s an opportunity they intend to seize.

“As UNF’s memo makes clear, there is still a sizable portion of the electorate that is just getting to know Lenny and has yet to form an opinion. The Curry campaign is in a good position to see growth with these voters who are ideologically aligned with Lenny.”

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory, through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at UNF, conducted the survey.