Peter Schorsch: Court ruling has tossed the Monopoly board

The Florida Supreme Court has ruled the state’s congressional maps don’t meet requirements of a voter-approved constitutional amendment prohibiting political lines drawn to favor incumbents or political parties. The court ordered the Legislature to redraw the maps

These are 10 big questions looming over Florida politics:

1. Will the Legislature appeal?

USFSP political science emeritus professor Darryl Paulson says it should.

“The Voting Rights Act was passed to expand majority-minority districts and then to preserve and protect them,” Paulson said. “Now you have the Florida Supreme Court challenging four of the majority-minority districts that exist in the state of Florida, which to me seems a blatantly unwise policy.

“This to me is just a very bad decision on the part of the court. I am adamantly opposed to African-Americans and Hispanics having to face the brunt of this, and (are) likely in the greatest jeopardy of losing their seats.”

Paulson said U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown likely has a case charging the ruling violates the Voting Rights Act.

2. What’s the timetable to redraw the lines?

The court gave the Legislature 100 days, which normally would be time enough but it starts committee meetings mid-September. To have a new map done before then, they should have started yesterday.

3. Who’s driving the redistricting train?

The already-powerful Speaker Designate Richard Corcoran now, as the Select Committee on Redistricting chairman, has in his hands the fate of dozens of Florida politicians. Bill Galvano, Corcoran’s Senate counterpart, also is a force to be reckoned with.

4. Who’s hurt more by the decision, Gwen Graham or David Jolly?

Both have been labeled losers of the week in Florida politics because the U.S. representatives would have trouble winning re-election in redrawn seats. The bigger loser? Probably Graham because she has fewer options than Jolly, in spite of her brighter future. Graham hasn’t a plausible intellectual argument to enter the U.S. Senate race. And she can’t lose her CD 2 race and expect to run for governor in 2018.

Jolly has a better case to run for Senate. As a sensible moderate in a field of conservatives, he’s from the state’s largest media market, he knows D.C. But he could likely return to the private sector to a seven-figure salary. He can’t be the GOP’s sacrificial lamb GOP, though, and lose in CD 13. It’s Senate or bust.

5. So Jolly for the U.S. Senate?

Yes. There’s probably a 90 percent chance of him running. Although his camp says he’s still “seriously considering,” he’s locked up major donors for a Senate bid.

6. Is Charlie Crist in?

Redrawing CD 13 as the Supreme Court envisions turns a four-decade GOP seat into a lay-up for Democrats. So Crist would be crazy not to run, right? Doesn’t he want to return to public office? There’s no doubt POLITICO’s Marc Caputo has well-placed sources saying Crist is thinking about running. However, I don’t think Crist will pull the trigger.

Among the reasons: He wants to return to the governor’s mansion, if he won the congressional seat he can’t turn around in 2018 and run for governor, he’s more likely waiting for Bill Nelson to retire. And Charlie Crist in D.C. during the winter? Puh-leeze.

7. What about Dan Webster?

Webster’s fate depends on several scenarios for Orange County. With District 5 no longer allowed to go to Orlando, the Legislature must do something about the African-Americans of Orange County.  Right now the African-American population is in District 5. However, with District 5 now likely to go east-west, the African-American voters of Orange will have to go somewhere.

The Legislature will find little compelling reason to not put them in a district based out of Orange. One Republican-friendly idea would to put them in District 9, the seat now held by U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson. However, doing so would dilute the Hispanic population, which could alarm the court.

The Legislature could try to split the black vote between Webster’s 10th, and Mica’s 7th, but that too would arouse judicial scrutiny. If either Mica or Webster had to bite the bullet, I would bet on Webster, who has been a congressman less time and has angered Speaker John Boehner.

8. If the congressional maps are unconstitutional, what does that say about the state Senate district maps?

Comparing the congressional map to the state Senate map is not exactly apples to apples, but when the Supreme Court says it has problems with congressional districts jumping bodies of water, one can assume it will think the same about the state Senate map.

9. Does the ruling affect the Senate president race?

Imagine the race for Senate president between Jack Latvala and Joe Negron is a game of Monopoly, one that Latvala is essentially losing because Negron owns the railroads, Boardwalk, Park Place and Marvin Gardens. How does Latvala turn it around? He could have incredible luck and run the table during the next round of state Senate primaries or he can toss up the board to force everyone else to scramble for the thimble.

10. What does the redistricting ruling say about Will Weatherford’s legacy?

As I read the ruling Thursday, I couldn’t help but think of Will Weatherford and how Barbara Pariente was dismantling part of his legacy. Weatherford and Don Gaetz, chairs of the redistricting committees, went out of their way to avoid injecting partisanship into it. Sure, consultants ended up doing that, but Weatherford took no part. Remember, this congressional map being thrown out led to a handful of Republicans losing in 2014. The state House districts map — the only one Weatherford had complete say-so over and the only one of the three maps not repudiated — drew several GOP incumbents into the same district.

Reporting from Mitch Perry, Matthew Isbell, and The Associated Press contributed to this post. Peter Schorsch is a new media publisher and political consultant based in St. Petersburg, Fla. Column courtesy of Context Florida.