After one week of early voting, Duval Republicans ahead in turnout battle

After one week of early voting in Duval County, including one Souls to the Polls activation, GOP turnout is still outpacing that of the Democrats.

As of Sunday evening, 151,644 people had voted.

Of that 151,644, 66,426 (or 43.8 percent) were Republicans. Democrats comprised 63,903 (or 42.1 percent) of that number.

NPA voters comprised the balance — roughly 14 percent.

Republicans lead Democrats by 6,601 votes by mail (25,656 to 19,085).

Democrats maintain a substantial advantage (44,792 to 40,717) in early voting itself.

In 2012, turnout was effectively even between Duval Democrats and Republicans on Election Day itself, with 65 more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day (63,072 to 63,007).

Republicans won the vote-by-mail battle that year by 9,531 votes (31.62 percent). Democrats, however, won the early voting battle by 22,430 votes (35.21 percent).

Through one week, neither the VBM nor the in-person early voting spreads approach 2012 proportions.

Democrats that year had a registration advantage of over 32,000 votes; this year, the Democratic advantage is under 20,000.

GOP turnout in 2012 was 80.4 percent, compared to 75 percent turnout among Democrats.

If that ratio were to hold in 2016, and 80.4 percent of the 220,817 Republicans voted, while 75 percent of the 240,386 Democrats voted, 177,534 Republicans will end up voting, compared to 180,260 Democrats.

If that turnout model holds, Democrats could feel confident about carrying Duval County … except for the reality of a certain, albeit dwindling, number of Blue Dog Democrats registered.

They, in theory, could vote for Trump.

Meanwhile, turnout at three heavily Democratic early voting locations — the Bradham and Brooks Library, the Legends Community Center, and Gateway Town Center — is the lowest of any location in the city. Those three locations, and the Supervisor of Elections main office downtown, are the only four locations with fewer than 3,000 votes cast.

Conversely, GOP sinecures — the beaches, Pablo Creek Library, South Mandarin, Southeast Regional Library — are all over 8,000 votes cast as of the end of tallying on Sunday.

The next week will tell the tale for Jacksonville area Democrats, who hold out hope that even if they can’t turn Duval into “Blu-val,” they can at least keep it more or less even between Trump and Clinton atop the ballot.