Peter Schorsch
Democrats still have tall order to regain majorities, but optimism abounds
Democrats had a big night Tuesday. The biggest prizes were governor’s races in New Jersey, where voters made a change after 8 years of Chris Christie, and in Virginia, where Ralph Northam will succeed fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
Pundits are calling it a referendum on President Donald Trump. It may well be, but these races do not represent a large enough sample size. Trump is wildly unpopular in both states and comfortably lost both in 2016.
The only real surprise Tuesday was the size of Northam’s margin over Ed Gillespie (9 points). In other words, it was a road game for the GOP candidates.
In 2018, Democrats will deploy the strategy of tying their opponents to Trump. That can work in some places, but in others, not so much.
Next year, 34 U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats, including Sen. Bill Nelson, must defend 25 while Republicans have only 9. Among those 25 Democrats are 10, including Nelson, running in states won by Trump in 2016.
Some of those states, like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were very close, so the Trump factor could come into play, one way or another. Democrats in others states like West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri are defending seats in states Trump won by margins ranging between 9 and 42 points.
One Republican, Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada, is up for re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. He has kept his distance from Trump.
In the House, Democrats are overflowing with optimism about retaking control of that chamber. While this probably contains only slightly better odds than retaking the Senate, it is possible.
So far, 23 Republicans have announced they will retire, resign soon, or run for another office in 2018. Most, but not all, are leaving relatively safe Republican seat.
But for the Democrats to have any chance of retaking the House, they must win seats like the one being vacated by the retiring Miami Republican, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. She was able to win reelection as a Republican in 2016 while Clinton was winning the 27th District by 20 points.
Florida has few swing districts, but those with a potential for Democratic pickups include the 25th in Miami (Mario Diaz-Balart), the 26th (Carlos Curbelo), and the 18th (Brian Mast).
Trump won the 18th with 53 percent, the same amount claimed by Mast. Diaz-Balart won re-election by 25 points, while Trump won the district by less than two points. Curbelo won in 2016 by 12 points, but Trump lost the district by 16 points.
National Republicans say they will go on offense against Stephanie Murphy of Winter Park and Charlie Crist of St. Petersburg. Murphy ousted veteran Republican John Mica by three points in the 7th District, which went for Clinton by 7. Crist and Clinton both won the 13th by between three and four points.
With the year almost over and the GOP without a significant legislative victory, the pressure continues to mount. If the current push for tax reform somehow fails, all bets are off.
Democrats may need to just buy some popcorn and then sit and watch Republicans give their voters plenty of excuses to stay home next fall. That’s how wave elections occur.
Nelson files legislation to help severely disabled veterans
A flurry of legislative activity surrounding veterans (more are highlighted below) is now working its way through Congress. As Veterans Day approached, Florida Democratic Sen. Nelson has proposed legislation designed to benefit the country’s veterans who need extra assistance the most.
Along with Connecticut Democrat Richard Blumenthal, Nelson filed legislation to ensure some of our most severely disabled veterans have access to the health care they need.
The legislation, known as the FAIR Heroes Act, would make disabled veterans who were medically retired from the military eligible for both Medicare Part B and TRICARE, a health care program for retired veterans and their families, and allow them to choose which health plan works best for them.
“These brave men and women are American heroes,” Nelson said. “They have made tremendous sacrifices in service to their country and making sure they have access to the health care that best fits their needs is the least we can do.”
The legislation has been endorsed by several veterans’ organizations including the Wounded Warriors Project, Veterans of Foreign Wars, Got Your 6, Association of the U.S. Army and the National Military Family Association.
Rubio: Proposal to eliminate state and local tax deduction will ‘go away’
While House Republicans are struggling with an increasingly troublesome tax reform package, Florida’s junior Senator is saying everything will work itself out. Rubio says the controversial elimination of the state and local tax deduction is not likely to be included in whatever passes the Senate.
“A lot of people are upset about that, but that’s going to go away,” he said on Fox News this week. “But what really matters is how much do you pay at the end of the day?”
With rumors swirling the House and Senate are quarreling over the issue, Rubio sought to reassure nervous supporters that there is nothing to see here. The different opinions that go into making public policy are frequently dealt with.
“Tax reform is hard,” he said. “That’s why it hasn’t been done in 25 years. But it’s not a clash. It’s the way this thing works.”
He took the opportunity to again throw in his proposal to raise the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $2,000. The House proposal raises the credit to $1,600.
Rubio said he would offer an amendment to raise it to $2,000 if the House bill is not adjusted.
Nelson, state jobs agency tangle
The three-term Democrat is asking the U.S. Department of Labor to look into claims the state of Florida’s job agency is putting people out of work due to a faulty website. In a letter to Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, Nelson claims Floridians are unable to apply for disaster unemployment benefits due to glitches in the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) website.
“They are getting kicked out of the online application system because they are not eligible for traditional unemployment insurance, despite being eligible for DUA (disaster unemployment assistance),” Nelson wrote. “When they call a representative for help, it can take hours on the phone to properly complete the application. An extension is pointless if the current process is not corrected to facilitate the proper management of the program.”
Not so, says DEO.
“The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity is committed to offering assistance to those impacted by Hurricane Irma,” DEO spokeswoman Tiffany Vause told News Service of Florida in an email Monday night. “Nearly 34,000 Floridians have applied for Disaster Unemployment Assistance, and the application process is fully functioning.”
The Tampa Bay Times notes the letter to Acosta was just one of many Nelson has fired off at Trump administration officials. The issues, ranging from FEMA’s hurricane response to demands for an investigation into the South Florida nursing home deaths, are not trivial.
But the activity also shows he is using every available resource as he settles into election mode.
Nelson is running for a fourth term next year and is widely expected to face a challenge from Republican Gov. Rick Scott, whose administration includes the Department of Economic Opportunity.
Delegation Democrats weigh in on 2018 Florida races
Florida Democrats are lending support to two candidates for important races in 2018. One of those includes a race for Congress.
Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach has endorsed Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for the 26th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In August, Mucarsel-Powell announced her candidacy against incumbent Republican Curbelo of Kendall.
“Debbie is a leader in her community, working to expand health care access to underserved communities and provide scholarships for first-generation college students,” said Frankel in a statement. “She understands firsthand the challenges that our communities and our country face and has the know-how to be a part of the solution. I am proud to stand with Debbie in her campaign and look forward to serving with her in Congress.”
The seat is one of the seats held by Republicans targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. While Curbelo won re-election, Trump lost the district to Clinton by 16 points.
In the race to become the next Florida Chief Financial Officer, former state Senator Jeremy Ring picked up the endorsement of four delegation Democrats. Throwing their support behind Ring was Ted Deutch of Boca Raton, Al Lawson of Tallahassee, Alcee Hastings of Miramar and Darren Soto of Orlando.
“I’ve gotten to know Jeremy over the years as both a colleague and friend,” Deutch said. “His business background and innovative ideas are exactly what our state needs and his record of protecting the Florida retirement system is exactly what taxpayers deserve from their next CFO.”
The congressmen backing the Margate Democrat also said they saw him as a prime candidate to break the Republican stranglehold on Florida’s statewide offices.
“It has been far too long since we have had a Democrat serving in our state cabinet, and I’m proudly supporting Jeremy Ring to be Florida’s next Chief Financial Officer. He is an innovative and thoughtful leader whose ideas are exactly what Florida needs,” Hastings said.
Ring, the lone Democrat running for CFO, said he was “thrilled” to earn the congressmen’s endorsements.
“They are all remarkable public servants with an unyielding commitment to do everything in their power to improve the lives of the Floridians that they represent. I am humbled by their support and excited to have them join our campaign to bring innovation, technology and high-paying jobs to Florida,” he said.
Gaetz ups the ante; calls for firing of special counsel
Last week, the first-term Republican from Fort Walton Beach voiced his opinion that Special Counsel Robert Mueller had conflicts of interest, making him unfit to lead the Russia investigation. On Wednesday, he went a step further.
He is now openly calling for Mueller to either resign or be fired.
“We are at risk of a coup d’état in this country if we allow an unaccountable person with no oversight to undermine the duly-elected President of the United States,” Gaetz said. “That is precisely what is happening right now with the indisputable conflicts of interest that are present with Mr. Mueller and others at the Department of Justice.”
“I join … in calling for Mr. Mueller’s resignation or his firing,” Gaetz continued.
During his remarks on the House floor, Gaetz also called for the appointment of a special counsel to “investigate the Clinton Foundation, the Uranium One deal, and the Fusion GPS dossier.”
President Trump has no plans to fire Mueller.
“There is no intention or plan to make any changes in regards to the special counsel,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters at a press briefing last week.
Dunn’s bill to facilitate organ transplants for veterans passes House
On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed by voice vote the Panama City Republican’s bill to expand veterans’ access to organ transplants. The Veterans’ Increased Choice for Transplanted Organs and Recovery (VICTOR) Act gives veterans in need of an organ or bone marrow transplant through the VA to seek care at a federally-certified transplant center near their home.
“The VICTOR Act is a critical step forward in ensuring transplant care through the VA meets our veterans’ medical needs,” said Dunn, who is also a medical doctor. “Medical decisions should be made between a doctor and their patient, and that is exactly what this bill does. The VICTOR Act will remove unnecessary obstacles facing veterans in need of organ transplants, making it easier for those who have served our country to receive lifesaving surgery.”
Currently, veterans who seek care through the VA and are in need of an organ transplant must go to one of only 14 Veterans Affairs Transplant Centers (VATCs) in the entire nation. Research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that among veterans eligible to receive livers, the greater the distance from a Department Transplant Facility or any transplant center, the veteran faced a lower likelihood of receiving a liver transplant, and a greater likelihood of death.
The VICTOR Act is supported by the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), the American Legion, and American Veterans (AMVETS).
Among the bill’s 32 co-sponsors were Florida Republicans John Rutherford of Jacksonville, Dennis Ross of Lakeland, Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor, Tom Rooney of Okeechobee, Daniel Webster of Orlando, Ted Yoho of Gainesville, Francis Rooney of Naples, and Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach.
“As we lead up to Veterans Day this week, it’s more important than ever that we ensure veterans in need of critical health care like organ transplants have access to the care they deserve. I’m pleased that the House passed the VICTOR Act today, and I thank Rep. Dunn for his continued leadership on this issue,” said Tennessee Republican Phil Roe, Chairman of the House Veterans Affairs Committee.
Lawson, Congressional Dems want answers on veterans’ hunger issues
The first-term Democrat from Tallahassee joined 16 of his House colleagues and a U.S. Senator to demand answers on revelations that recent combat veterans are twice as likely to suffer from food insecurity as the average American. Lawson and his colleagues wrote to Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin seeking to get to the bottom of the problem.
The V.A. just started collecting information on food scarcity issues for veterans this month; the goal, per the letter, is to get a yearly accounting starting next November from the V.A. to Congress on “hunger screenings” and ways that hunger is being remedied, such as SNAP benefits.
The letter notes that food scarcity for veterans doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
“Sadly, some veterans who have risked their lives for the freedom and safety of our country face high rates of disability, significant medical problems, and mental health conditions that may complicate their ability to maintain gainful employment. These men and women are also at greater risk for food insecurity.”
Corrine Brown alum mounts primary challenge to Lawson
Lawson’s first primary opponent for Lawson is Rontel Batie, a 29-year-old former Tallahassee lobbyist and former Brown policy director who overcame a lot of childhood adversity, including but not limited to his father being killed in a drive-by shooting and serious poverty.
Batie framed that as part of his narrative, both in a campaign launch video, and a press release, in which he claimed to have “excited the millennial base in Tallahassee and Jacksonville with his campaign launch video, which now has over 7,000 views and over 300 shares on Facebook. Young people in this district are a demographic that have been in a political slumber since the election of President Barack Obama in 2012.”
Batie claims to have received 50 donations thus far for his committee, “Rontel for Florida,” but he didn’t want to say how much cash he has on hand. (To put that in perspective, Lawson had $190,126 raised (all but $51,000 of that from committees), with $97,876 cash on hand at the end of September).
Batie, who worked in D.C. for Brown, was surprisingly removed from the details of her high-profile court case that ended her political career and set up sentencing for next week on 18 felony counts.
Castor blasts Trump Cuba travel restrictions
The Tampa Democrat is not happy with a series of measures published by the White House Wednesday that tightens limits on Americans’ dealings with Cuba. Castor is bothered by the package, which includes a blacklist of state-owned companies and entities, including shops and hotels.
It also requires most U.S. citizens wanting to travel to the island to only go as part of organized tour groups, which had been the case before former President Barack Obama loosened the rules nearly three years ago.
Castor denounced the new regulations as part of a “backward policy” of the Trump administration to “return to failed Cold War isolationist policies toward Cuba and the Cuban people.”
She said America instead should be focused on supporting Cuba’s growing private sector by encouraging more Americans to travel to Cuba rather than adding restrictions on Americans, cultural exchanges and businesses.
“Since the U.S. re-established diplomatic ties with Cuba, thousands of Americans have visited and numerous businesses have explored new markets,” Castor said Wednesday. “These activities have not only opened new economic opportunities for Americans and Cubans alike, they serve as an integral part of our efforts to promote the spread of democracy and ensure the security of our region.”
Bipartisan delegation quartet seeks to extend refugee protected status
Four South Florida delegation members have filed legislation designed to extend the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian refugees and others living in the U.S. under TPS. If enacted, the Extending Status Protection for Eligible Refugees with Established Residency (ESPERER) Act of 2017, would grant an 18-month extension for those refugees whose home countries would find it difficult to provide a suitable environment for them to live.
The legislation is the combined work of Kendall Republican Curbelo, Miramar Democrat Alcee Hastings, Miami Gardens Democrat Frederica Wilson, and Miami Republican Ros-Lehtinen. Their goal is to provide a pathway to legal residency for certain nationals of Haiti, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras, who have been recipients of TPS before January 13, 2011, to adjust their status to Legal Permanent Resident.
Curbelo pointed out that the short-term extensions have created anxiety for individuals, families, neighbors, and employers, while Hastings reminded his colleagues that those with TPS are “law-abiding, hardworking taxpayers.”
Wilson called on the Department of Homeland Security to accompany her on a trip to Haiti to witness first hand that “the island nation is in no position to absorb and aid tens of thousands of deportees from the United States.” Ros-Lehtinen also seeks to lessen the anxiety of those seeking legal residency and “can instead continue to contribute to economic prosperity of our local communities.”
The bill has since added four additional co-sponsors including Weston Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Miami Republican Diaz-Balart.
Happy Veterans Day to delegation members who served in the military
On Veterans Day, Floridians and Americans across the country honor those who served in the nation’s military. Among Members of Congress, 100 served, including 6 from the Florida delegation.
Democratic Sen. Nelson served in the Army during the Vietnam era and in the Army reserve for 5 years. Panama City Republican Dunn served as an Army surgeon for more than 12 years.
Ponte Vedra Republican Ron DeSantis served as a Navy prosecutor that included service in Guantánamo Bay and Iraq. He is still a Lt. Commander in the Naval Reserve.
Sarasota Republican Vern Buchanan served in the Air National Guard for 6 years while he worked his way through college. Okeechobee Republican T. Rooney spent more than four years (as did wife Tara), in the Army’s Judge Advocate General (JAG) Corps.
Palm City Republican Brian Mast is a highly-decorated 12-year veteran of the Army. Serving as a bomb disposal expert in Afghanistan, Mast lost both of his legs when one exploded.
The Delegation sends Veterans Day wishes to those Floridians, and all Americans, who served their country in the Armed Forces.
