Peter Schorsch
Will the 2018 Legislative Session end with a bang — a new state budget — or a whimper, in the form of a Special Session?
Leadership of both chambers is serving up the usual looks-bad-but-we’re-hopeful quotes, while lobbyists are starting to cancel post-Session travel plans, just as a precaution.
Talking with about 20 Capitol influencers, we attempted to get a handle on budget negotiations, as well as handicap the race to Sine Die.
According to one veteran lobbyist experienced in the executive branch:
“The Parkland tragedy has deeply affected Senate leadership and caused them to reflect on their priorities … But no one should underestimate the bitterness of years of being made the House’s patsies or the lingering belief that House leadership had a role in taking out one of their own.”
The shooting last week is on almost everyone’s mind:
“Parkland changed everything by shedding light on a need for substantial increase security funding. In turn, that changed every issue in the tax package every allocation and all member project as funds needed to be repurposed for Flordia students.
“Anyone who tells you how it will end is lying to you.”
It’s Parkland, Parkland, Parkland:
“The Parkland Tragedy has understandably become the focus of the House, Senate and Governors office. That being said, it did not appear that the negotiations were progressing at all before the tragedy. The columns are not even open yet.
“Unless there is a major shift in discussions (unlikely given the media and Legislative focus on Parkland and thus no public pressure to end Session on time), I do not expect a budget by Day 60.
“Rumors as of this morning are that Chair [Carlos] Trujillo suggested that they will extend a week. I have heard some in Senate suggest they will come back late in March.
“Regardless of when they come back, I think we are coming back.”
Said another lobbyist from a Top 5 firm:
“The Speaker’s comments yesterday, referring to Senate leadership as ‘kindergartners,’ sounds more like we’re headed to recess than to Sine Die … It also does not serve his political ambitions to end on time. The longer he can stay in the headlines, with a nice little fundraising break in between sessions, the better for his yet to be announced campaign.”
One more lobbyist echoed that sentiment:
“It’s hard to see how they reach a deal in two weeks when we’ve gotten to a point where the Speaker is calling the Senate President and Appropriations chair names. Perhaps they can resolve their differences in a game of dodgeball in the courtyard.”
And a third:
“The state of negotiations is unfortunately nowhere. Although there is still time for them to work out allocations and end on time, the Speaker’s public comments definitely doesn’t warm the hearts of any Senators.
“I predict we end Session on time, but they return solely to address the budget.”
This same lobbyist pointed out one stumbling block:
“[HB] 7055 is a major issue. Senators dislike it, and they aren’t willing to make it a conforming bill; however, it cannot pass the Senate in any other form.”
An especially savvy player explains why patience is warranted:
“The many complex issues being introduced by the House late in the process are making bringing budget negotiations to a close very difficult. How much of these positions the Senate is willing to embrace will determine if we finish on time. If rejecting bad policy takes times, so be it.”
One veteran lobbyist is betting on the House Speaker:
“The Senate, not being adept at negotiating with [Richard] Corcoran in the past, is playing chicken instead of negotiating, betting that would be Governor Corcoran has more to lose from dysfunction than they do and that he will flinch as a result.
“The Senate will flinch in the end.”
One former member puts the onus on the Senate president.
“Senate traded higher ed bill for that POS HB 7069 last year then got screwed by the veto. I commend [Joe] Negron for showing some balls and wanting it passed before anything else major happens this year.
“The question is will he stick to his guns, oops, principles this time?”
A contra opinion from a lobbyist especially close to several senators:
“There’s always anxiety in week 7; week 8, calm heads prevail; week 9, they will pass a budget. Allocations will be settled mid next week.
“No one wins if they extend.”
Two words no one likes to hear:
“This ends with a Special Session.
“The Senate is more unified with [Rob] Bradley holding the budget. The Speaker is also looking at it through the lens of 2018 where a special keeps him in the headlines. He probably also doesn’t hate the idea of being able to fundraise while the budget’s still out there.”
A former senior House staffer-turned-lobbyist says an extension is more likely than a Special Session:
“Budget negotiations are in the same annual, ugly, muddy ditch.
“We all know the talented budget staff have offers, counteroffers, and a landing place that both sides can adopt pretty quickly after the puffing and blustering ends.
“Can’t imagine a special session, but there is a pretty good chance they will extend.”
Said a former lawmaker turned lobbyist:
“There’s technically still plenty of time …
“They have to hit print by late on the 6th to get out on the 9th, but the Parkland tragedy, huge education spending differences, a new revenue forecast and no allocation talks point me to extended Session or a budget special.”
A 4th-Floor player close to Senate budget chief Bradley is optimistic:
“There will be a deal.
“There really not that far apart and there is no incentive for them to extend. The last thing legislative leadership or the Governor wants is to look more dysfunctional after all the attention this week.”
As for the House’s perspective:
“I walked out of the Capitol yesterday at 4:30 p.m. with Chair (Carlos) Trujillo. He was headed out for the day.
“That should tell us plenty.”
This is probably the most realistic assessment:
“Budget allocations are likely to get done at the exact moment that they always get done. Which is the last moment that’s they have to get done. No one in Leadership of either chamber wants to be here a day longer than they have to.
“Speaker needs to go campaign, President needs to get out of a still reeling chamber.”
A lobbyist from one of the Top 3 firms seconds that notion:
“President and Speaker will work on allocations over the weekend, start conference next week and pass a budget this Session, but likely in an extended Session.
“With it being an election year and having to respond to the SDH shooting, they know it’s the right thing to do.”
The managing partner of a major firm sees a binary choice:
“The obvious answer is chaos. But alternatively, I think the plane can land on time. As dollars get moved to address what I would call ‘Parkland-related issues’ — that leaves fewer ‘discretionary dollars’ at the top. Decisions may become more difficult but the resource pot only allows certain priorities — mostly education (K-12=House and higher ed=Senate).
“Throw in some dollars to get a ‘deal’ on hospital and nursing home (generators) funding and a few second tier leadership priorities and you are out of money and can pass a budget on time.
“Tax package gets skinny. … This is my ‘rosy Spring Break’ scenario.”
And this, one of the more creative explanations:
“I see the last 2 weeks of election-year Sessions as analogous to the NBA playoffs. All NBA games are 48 minutes, all sessions are 9 weeks.
“Typically the first 40 minutes of playoff games are yo-yos. They are then decided in the last 5 minutes. Sessions are no different.
“Although the announcers and Tallahassee pundits predict nail-biters throughout the 4th quarters, and overtimes seem likely to all observers in the last 3 minutes — less than 10 percent of NBA playoff games go into overtime.
“Prediction: Although we may be headed to a Game 7 and see a Special Session to deal with some bolder policy issues, I predict the Legislature finishes the budget on time.”
