Delegation for 8.31.18 — Insights from the Beltway to the Sunshine State

Florida delegation

What did we learn Tuesday about a blue wave?

Tuesday night, Florida provided one of the biggest shockers of the primary campaign season with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum’s upset win over former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham, also of Tallahassee. On the Republican side, no one was surprised by the landslide win by Rep. Ron DeSantis over Agriculture Commissioner and former Republican Congressman Adam Putnam.

The results provided us with more information on whether the predicted “blue wave” is turning into a trickle, at least in Florida. In a pre-election interview with Florida Politics, pollster and consultant Steve Vancore said before the election, “there’s no evidence either way – for it or against it.”

Vancore was right, but after the election, there is more data pointing against it at home. The statewide turnout of 27.44 percent was the highest since 2002, yet in the governor’s race, 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted, according to figures provided by the Division of Elections.

This dynamic showed up in competitive races for seats in Congress. In District 6, the seat being vacated by DeSantis, Republican Michael Waltz will face Democrat Nancy Soderberg, but nearly 20,000 more Republicans cast ballots in the GOP-leaning district.

District 15 saw Republican Ross Spano emerge to take on Democrat Kristen Carlson in the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Dennis Ross. On Tuesday, 15,000 more Republicans voted.

Republican Rep. Brian Mast is a target of Democrats, but 13,000 more District 18 Republicans turned out than for Democrats, who picked Lauren Baer as their nominee. In Democratic-leaning District 26, Republicans had a 2,000-vote turnout advantage in setting up the November matchup between GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Donna Shalala emerged from a crowded and cash-flowing Democratic primary in District 27. In a bright spot, Democrats turned out 5,000 more of their voters in the Democratic-leaning district than the outgunned Republicans, who nominated Maria Elvira Salazar.

Other factors point toward 2018 being like other midterm elections. When Democrats struggle, they can point to lackluster turnouts in their strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade County.

On Tuesday night, Miami-Dade had the second-lowest turnout percentage of 21.34 percent. Only 23.5 percent of Broward voters bothered to cast ballots and Palm Beach saw a 25.37 percent turnout.

All of this should concern Democrats looking to flip seats, but especially Sen. Bill Nelson, who is desperately seeking to hold onto his.

There are still two months to go and a full month remains to register new voters and develop a winning message to excite progressive Democrats while attracting independents. They are beginning to learn, as the GOP did 20 years ago, that depending on presidential scandals may not be enough.

Outside of Florida, polls show better results for Democrats with the Real Clear Politics average of polls on the generic ballot indicating an 8-point Democratic advantage, which would be enough to retake the House. A Reuters survey shows a 13-point Democratic lead.

If those numbers somehow hold when polling shifts to “likely voters” instead of “registered voters,” then Democrats may have a lot to cheer about around the country.

Kavanaugh hearing awaits returning Senators

The public back and forth over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to be the next justice on the Supreme Court may have quieted for a while, but things heat up right away on Tuesday. On their first day back from the Labor Day break, the Senate Judiciary Committee is set to begin confirmation proceedings.

Democrats have tried multiple avenues to stop the hearings, but committee chairman Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, has ignored all of those requests and demands. Last week, all 10 Democratic Senators on the committee wrote to Grassley asking for a delay “to ensure we have adequate information and time to evaluate his record.”

Grassley again refused.

Kavanaugh is set to be formally introduced by Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Once hearings begin, Democrats will attack and Republicans will act as defense counsel.

The nominee did pick up an interesting endorsement over the weekend. Former Bill Clinton counsel Bob Bennett, who represented the former president during the Paula Jones investigation while Kavanaugh worked for special counsel Kenneth Starr, supports confirmation.

“Despite being on opposite sides of the Starr investigation, however, Brett and I managed to avoid falling prey” to more divisive political instincts, Bennett said. He further said Kavanaugh is “the most qualified person any Republican President could possibly have nominated.”

Rubio strongly supports Kavanaugh’s confirmation, while Nelson said he would wait until after the committee hearings before revealing his intentions. Neither Senator is a member of the committee.

Nelson, Rubio concerned with Trump trade deal

On Monday, Trump announced a trade deal with Mexico that is designed to improve upon the current North American Free Trade Agreement. While Canada, the other participant in NAFTA, was not yet on board, the president hailed the agreement as “a big day, a big day for our country.”

By Tuesday, both Rubio and Nelson expressed doubts. Specifically, they were concerned for Florida farmers.

“Mexican growers have used every trick in the book to get around U.S. trade rules, much at the expense of Florida growers, who are uniquely impacted by such behavior,” the Senators said in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. “We respectfully request that you work diligently to ensure Florida’s agriculture community is fairly represented in the forthcoming trade deal with Mexico.

According to a coalition of Florida growers, a provision pushed by Rubio that would curtail “an influx of cheap Mexican produce …. appears to have been traded away in exchange for Mexico agreeing to provisions favored by the U.S. auto industry.”

One of Trump’s campaign promises was to remove the U.S. from NAFTA and negotiate “a better deal.” It seems a better deal is in the eye of the beholder.

Since the announcement, Canadian representatives have been working with the U.S. to join the agreement.

After ‘monkey’ comment, DeSantis gets some support

By now most of the country knows DeSantis used the term “monkeying things up” when warning against returning to policy positions advocated by Gillum. Less than 12 hours after winning the Republican nomination, race was injected into the campaign.

DeSantis is under verbal attack from all sides but denied that the comment was meant as a racial slur. The issue is sure to hang around for a while, whether on the campaign trail or through television commercials from third-party groups.

Curbelo did not defend the comment, but DeSantis has not shown racism in front of him.

To hear DeSantis’ comment, click on the image below:

 

“I know Ron. I don’t know him to be a racist” Curbelo said Thursday morning. “I’ve never heard him say anything disparaging about any ethnic group or any person for that matter. But I also will say that was just a stupid comment to make, one that was obviously offensive to a lot of people.

Curbelo called on DeSantis to apologize.

During August, DeSantis made frequent joint campaign appearances with fellow Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach. Gaetz did not immediately comment on his colleague’s statement but offered support via Twitter.

Gaetz retweeted a post from former Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson, who brought out a quote from former President Barack Obama speaking about those from both parties who “monkey around with elections” in Chicago. He also sent an article where Gillum referred to the ongoing FBI investigation as a “monkey on the (Tallahassee city) commission’s back.”

And this is just the first day of the first week of the campaign.

Contentious campaign for CD 5 ends with good wishes

It was contentious at times, but the combatants in the Democratic primary for Congressional District 5 were gracious in victory and defeat. After Rep. Al Lawson of Tallahassee rolled to a 20-point victory over former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown in one of the closest-watched intraparty contests, the challenger congratulated his opponent.

“I urge all of those who supported me to join me in congratulating Congressman Al Lawson on a hard-fought, spirited campaign and offering our time and energy to tackle the challenges facing our region and country,” Brown said.

Polls taken over the last month accurately predicted the size of Lawson’s win. As the incumbent piled up endorsements, such as 80 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus, the momentum clearly swung his way.

Brown won his home county of Duval by 20 points, but he needed much more. Lawson won the remaining counties in the district by huge margins, including a nearly five-to-one advantage in his home county of Leon.

“I appreciate the confidence that you all have put placed in me. “I promised you a year and a half ago that I would stand tall for you. Literally, tall in Congress,” said the former college and professional basketball player. “I’ve been doing that, and I promise you that I’m just getting warmed up.”

On the fall ballot for Republicans is Virginia Fuller, who has yet to report any campaign fundraising.

Murphy thrashes Ocasio-Cortez-backed opponent in CD 7

No one expected Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy to have a difficult time getting past primary challenger Chardo Richardson. She had built up a significant war chest to be deployed if necessary.

The best excitement from this race came when the newest Democratic star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, endorsed Richardson. Both are advocates of abolishing the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency.

Unfortunately for Richardson, Ocasio-Cortez, who came into prominence after a big upset over Rep. Joe Crowley in a New York City primary, could not do the same for Richardson as her soul-mate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, did for Andrew Gillum.

When the votes were counted, Murphy had 85 percent of them, sending her on to face Republican Mike Miller in November. Miller won a three-way GOP primary with 54 percent of the vote.

“I look forward to a civil general election campaign based on ideas, values, and our different visions for the future of this nation,” Murphy said. “My campaign is about jobs, security, and equality, and I’m proud of the grassroots support we’ve received across central Florida.”

Soros Latino PAC spent big on Soto

A public poll from a couple of weeks before the primary showed Democratic Rep. Darren Soto with a seven-point lead over former Rep. Alan Grayson. Tuesday’s blowout victory by Soto is credited in part by a strong turnout by the Latino community on his behalf.

The George Soros-backed “Latino Victory Fund” PAC revealed they had spent half million dollars in support of Soto. The expenditure, described as an “investment,” included more than 500 television spots on Spanish-language television, commercials on Spanish radio stations, Spanish-language social media, and several mailers targeting Hispanic audiences in the 9th Congressional District.

“Darren Soto has fought for Florida families as an effective advocate in Congress. Now (it was) our turn to fight for him,” Cristóbal J. Alex, Latino Victory Fund president, stated in a news release. “We were pleased to have managed one of the most sophisticated, multifaceted political programs to defend Darren Soto, the only Puerto Rican member of Congress from Florida, and to have built Latino political power along the way that will have a positive impact beyond today’s election.”

Soto was one of more than 30 Democrats whom Latino Victory fund was backing in both federal and state elections. Other beneficiaries included Mucarsel-Powell in District 26.

He will face Republican Wayne Liebnitzsky in November. Liebnitzsky picked up the endorsement of District 8 Republican Rep. Bill Posey of Rockledge on Thursday.

11th-hour push poll targets Bilirakis challenger 

With his victory in the Democratic primary for the District 12 seat, Chris Hunter is ready to take on incumbent Republican Gus Bilirakis. Hunter believes the campaign began a few days before the primary from a push poll he believes Bilirakis is behind.

Hunter said a telephone poll asked voters whether they would be more or less likely to vote for him if they knew he wanted to dismantle U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and open the borders. Hunter says he does not support either of those concepts.

The poll also asked the voters if they would be more or less likely to back Hunter if they knew he supported House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Hunter has said he will not support Pelosi, stating “we need to have a new generation of leaders in Congress.”

“The willingness to sow disinformation is such a dangerous precedent that has already been set, and now politicians like Gus Bilirakis are using that play from the dirty tricks playbook to, in this instance, hang on to the seat his father bequeathed him,” Hunter told the Tampa Bay Times Monday.

The Bilirakis campaign neither confirmed nor denied any involvement in the poll. Campaign manager Towson Fraser said, “we don’t discuss campaign strategy publicly.”

Hunter scored a big win in the primary, defeating two other Democratic challengers with 65 percent of the vote.

Deutch blasts sale of 3D gun plans online

The controversy over making blueprints for plastic 3D guns available online reappeared this week. The owner of a Texas company, prohibited by a Seattle judge from offering them for free downloads, began selling them instead, much to the chagrin of a Florida lawmaker.

Cody Wilson, owner of Defense believes he is not running afoul of the judge’s order by charging for the plans to make the untraceable guns. Others would beg to disagree.

Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch from Boca Raton was outraged. Deutch, who along with Weston Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz and two other Democratic colleagues introduced legislation that would block 3D gun blueprints, believes Wilson is flouting the law.

“This is unacceptable,” Deutch said in a tweet. “You want a gun? Go through a background check. It’s time for Congress to make that the rule for all guns, made with a 3D printer or not.”

Nineteen states and the District of Columbia had sought an injunction to stop a settlement that the federal government reached with Wilson and his company.

The states argued that posting the plans online for how to make the untraceable plastic guns would pose a security risk.

Curbelo kicks off CD 27 campaign with TV ad

The District 26 race between incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is officially underway. As the primary concluded, where both candidates easily fended off challengers, Curbelo was up with his first ad.

The ad focuses on Curbelo’s actions as a centrist in the House. He criticizes both the left and the right.

To watch, click on the image below:

 

Acting as a basketball referee, mixed with a few jump shots, he calls out Democrats for not getting behind his efforts to help DREAMers and Republicans for weakness on the environment and gun control measures.

My first job was refereeing basketball. I called a fair game,” Curbelo says, with a striped shirt on his shoulder and a whistle around his finger. “But Washington politicians don’t play fair. And I just call ‘em like I see ‘em.”

How much television either candidate can do in a television market as expensive as Miami is something both candidates will weigh. As of August 8, Curbelo had $2.6 million cash on hand while Mucarsel-Powell had $1.23 million.

On this day in the headlines

August 31, 1967 – Thurgood Marshall, 59, the great-grandson of a slave, yesterday won Senate confirmation as the first Negro Supreme Court Supreme Court Justice despite Southern opposition. The vote on the appointee of President Lyndon Johnson, a former Senator from Texas, was 69-11 with Florida Democratic Sen. Spessard Holland among those voting against confirmation. Democratic Sen. George Smathers did not vote.

“I am greatly honored by the appointment and its confirmation,” Marshall said. “Let me take this opportunity to reaffirm my deep faith in this nation and its people and to pledge that I shall ever be mindful of my obligation to the Constitution and to the goal of equal justice under the law.”

August 31, 2008 – As presumptive GOP nominee John McCain prepares to depart for Minneapolis and the Republican National Convention, some of his delegates may have trouble getting there. Hurricane Gustav is threatening Florida and is causing some convention speakers to monitor its path.

Gov. Charlie Crist, who is scheduled to speak before McCain’s acceptance speech on Thursday night along with Sen. Mel Martinez, has delayed his arrival until at least Tuesday. Depending on the situation, he may not attend at all.

(NOTE: Crist did not attend)

Val Demings’ specially-endorsed candidate elected Orange County Mayor

Orange County Sheriff Jerry Demings was the favorite to win the Democratic primary for Orange County Mayor. He had the backing of Nelson, Soto and a host of other influential people in the area.

His most important endorsement came from the former Orlando Chief of Police. Sheriff Demings has had the support of the city’s former top cop for years, who happens to be his wife and current Congresswoman Val Butler Demings.

In the end, it was an early night for the Demings family. Jerry Demings avoided a runoff by earning 61 percent of the vote and will be sworn in as mayor on December 4.

Val Demings cruised through the primary for Congressional District 10 with 75 percent of the vote. With no Republican opponent, she has officially won a second term and will be sworn in during the first week in January.