Phil Ammann
After declaring he is “actively exploring” a White House run, Jeb Bush surged to lead the pack Republican 2016 presidential contenders, says to a new CNN/ORC poll.
In a nationwide survey, the former Florida governor took 23% of Republicans, putting him 10 points ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was second with 13%. Physician Ben Carson received 7%; tied for fourth was Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, each with 6%.
Compared to a similar CNN/ORC survey conducted in November, numbers for the entire GOP field dropped – with the exception of Christie and Bush. In that earlier poll, Bush also took the lead, but only by 14% of the Republican vote. Carson came in second with 11%. Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan each took 9% for a fourth place tie.
Bush’s decisive 10-point advantage in December represents a breakthrough for the 2016 Republican presidential race. For the first time in two years, a candidate leads beyond the poll’s margin of error.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the overall favorite with Democrats. If the former First Lady chooses to run, she gets the nod with two-thirds support. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a liberal favorite, received just 9%, a distant second.
Despite his expanding popularity, Bush still has a way to go with GOP primary voters, if he enters the race. Nevertheless, they seem willing to give him a pass over some of his contentious positions, the CNN/ORC poll shows.
On immigration, Republican primary voters split evenly on supporting Bush, after the former governor made comments over permitting undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States, describing illegal immigration as an “act of love”.
Forty-two percent of respondents says the comment makes it less likely they would support Bush, but 39% also feels it makes no difference.
Although 40% report that increased government spending while Bush was governor make them less likely to support him, 49% say it will not affect their opinion.
One of the biggest obstacle facing Bush with many conservatives is his staunch support of Common Core educational standards. Even so, GOP voters remain split over whether Common Core makes them less likely to support him.
GOP primary voters also appear more pragmatic for 2016, with 69% saying they will accept a nominee with the best chances of beating the Democrat, even if they do not agree on every issue. Only 29 percent want an ideologically pure candidate.
That sensibility among the Republican electorate Bush the candidate to beat in the primaries.
In seven hypothetical GOP match-ups with Clinton, Bush fares best, but still does not win. Bush would lose to Clinton by 13 points, 54% to 41%.
The nationwide CNN/ORC survey interviewed 1,011 adults using both landlines and cell phones from Dec. 18-21, with 453 Republicans and 469 Democrats. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
