Ryan Nicol
A survey from a GOP-aligned super PAC shows some good news for Republican candidate Carlos Giménez as he seeks the congressional seat currently held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
The poll shows Giménez earning 47% support in a hypothetical November matchup against Mucarsel-Powell, with the incumbent netting 42% support. The survey’s margin of error is 4.9 percentage points. That applies to each candidate’s results, meaning the lead for Giménez is still within the margin of error.
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) — a super PAC aimed at electing Republicans to the U.S. House — commissioned the survey. Meeting Street Insights conducted the poll in English and Spanish. It ran from July 14-18 and sampled 400 registered voters.
Publicly-released polls backed by partisan groups should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. Though the findings could be accurate, partisan groups have an incentive to withhold internal polls showing poor results for their preferred candidate and only release favorable polls to the public.
Nevertheless, the race is expected to be close in the fall. Mucarsel-Powell said she anticipates the race to be “one of the toughest” in the nation. She won the seat in 2018 by just 2 percentage points. The DCCC has also placed the incumbent in its Frontline Program, which funnels resources to potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the House.
Giménez still needs to get through the Republican primary in order to take on Mucarsel-Powell. He’s competing in the Aug. 18 primary against Omar Blanco, the former head of Miami-Dade Firefighters Local 1403.
Giménez, who currently serves as the Miami-Dade County Mayor, has heavily outraised Blanco. Both candidates trail Mucarsel-Powell in fundraising, however.
The CLF-backed poll shows good news for Giménez among Hispanics in a district where they hold the majority. The survey showed Giménez leading Mucarsel-Powell 52%-33% among Hispanic voters. Among the Cuban demographic — which tends to lead more Republican than Hispanics at large — Giménez led by a 61%-24% margin.
Giménez also posted high name recognition, which Mucarsel-Powell has acknowledged could be a strength for Giménez. The district covers portions of Miami-Dade County as well as Monroe County.
