Miami-Dade mayoral candidate Daniella Levine Cava is ahead by four points in the Aug. 18 election, according to an internal poll released Monday.
That result is within the survey’s 4.9% margin of error, putting her in a statistical tie with Esteban “Steve” Bovo and Alex Penelas, who are tied for second in the survey. The poll showed Levine Cava with 26% of the vote, while Bovo and Penelas each earned 22% support.
Publicly-released internal campaign polls should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. Though results can be accurate, campaigns have an incentive to withhold internal polls with poor results and only publicly release results showing their campaign in a positive light.
Levine Cava has been competitive via other metrics — such as fundraising and endorsements — giving her a decent shot in the August contest. The Miami-Dade County mayoral election will take place alongside Florida’s primary elections Aug. 18. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote — a high likelihood in the seven-person field — the top two candidates will advance to a runoff on Nov. 3.
“This poll only reaffirms what we are hearing from voters and the continued momentum Commissioner Levine Cava has seen in the weeks leading up to Election Day,” said Christian Ulvert, senior advisor to the Levine Cava campaign.
“We remain the only campaign with broad community support with endorsements continuing to grow in these crucial weeks. Despite facing a barrage of false attacks, Daniella has seen her favorability grow tremendously and voter support rise.”
In early May, the Levine Cava campaign released a poll showing her ahead by an even-slimmer margin, just two points over Penelas. Bovo placed fourth in that survey, trailing Penelas and Miami-Dade Commissioner Xavier Suarez.
Suarez sits in fourth this time around, earning 15% of the vote. Just 2% of respondents said they would vote for one of the three other candidates in the race, Carlos Antonio De Armas, entrepreneur Monique Nicole Barley and real estate agent Ludmilla Domond. Another 13% were undecided.
The Dynamic Online survey ran from July 20-23 and sampled 457 registered voters.
Levine Cava had a net favorable rating of +18, while Bovo sat at +11. Suarez was underwater with a -6 rating, as was Penelas at -12.
Levine Cava and Penelas are battling on the left flank of the race, while Bovo has tried to position himself as the leading conservative candidate in the contest.